Parkmead Share Price (PMG)

A few years back, Senergy estimated 24% recovery rate for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. Charles Stanley had to say about it: “For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy’s most recent publicly available estimates).”

PMG have stated several times they expect GPA to recover more than 80MMBoe.

I strongly suspect they really think it will be a LOT more, but are not shouting about it too loudly yet. Maybe a new CPR with the deal (if it happens), to reflect the above and the reservoir study - "New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor".

Cash = 28p/share (as at June, but positive cash flow from NL), a farm worth 7p/share, so all the O&G interests (and Aupec) are currently valued at ~12p/share.

Patience... ;-)

Apologies yes it is too low!!

18 million barrels 2P reserves at $5 per barrel. That is just the 2p that was added when we increased our equity to 100% from 60%.

I can't find an actual 2P number for the fields, but if we assume most of the reserves are attributable to Perth (PMG total 2P =46mmbbls), then $230 million at $5 per barrel 2P.

Neil how did you estimate the $90m as it seems low to me! Agree re TC negotiating skills. I personally would favour retaining a sizeable percentage but do understand the rationale for selling the lot if the initial capex would require significant borrowing or fund raising.

"Parkmead hopes to recover 193 million barrels of oil from GPA." (Energy Voice article).
"Parkmead’s GPA project, which has the potential to deliver 75-130 MMBoe on a P50 basis." (2019 AR).
"Perth and Dolphin....recoverable reserves and contingent resources of approximately 104 million barrels of oil" (PMG RNS)
"Lowlander....contains 2C oil resources of 21.4 million barrels of recoverable oil on a P50 basis" (PMG RNS)
These 2P/2C figures stated before ""New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor".

Let's err on the cautious/lower side and say it is 75MMBoe, and value it at $5/bbl, that's £288m, or £2.65 per share.
Wack it up to 193MMBoe and $10 and that's £13+/share...

That's without current cash, NL gas, Skerryvore, Platypus (which appears to be progressing well and sounds like will contribute more gas than NL does currently..), explo.

Without Scott the capex is eye watering even though it is muted that finance has been offered by the service companies. To me the best outcome is to sell GPA outright to CNOC and concentrate onshore/offshore gas and WOS.
Tom Cross has already alluded to companies interested in a takeover of PMG and to me the criticised land purchase (by me anyway) was much more about increasing Cross and associates share percentage to make a hostile bid nye impossible.
GLA.