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Don't disagree actually. End of year for the first award isn't that long and nor is 1st Q next year for the $85M.
Could do with a positive update on Kaz all the same as thought that sounded quite interesting on its own.
Panman will be too late when the rns comes out that the arbitration has been concluded and the price has gone up ten fold. USA will be a slow burner and Kazakhstan a medium growth asset. The arbitration will be the money maker here with a maximum year wait for the decisions on all front.
Think they're getting a bit more interesting with the arbitration decision times getting closer.
$7.5M to be decided end of this year and $85M first quarter 2025.
Couldn't answer the question of when will the market get interested, guess its got to start believing they can and will win?
Botham unless zenith get paid $100m+ and we’re paid back with the winnings. But yes we need to get cracking on USA to get some action going.
@botham, you nailed it there.
We need an update on USA too.
Some really articulate posts , the reality is though that beyond current holders who all massively under the water. Nobody in the UK is interested in ZEN a couple of pocket money trades which is two more than we are seeing a week a lot of the time. Until their is clear direction on future debt funding, and actually close a deal, this is going nowhere. For 12 months we have seen huge admin costs recorded against speculative travelling and MOU's in double figures and nothing closed. Like many AIM companies with CEO's on huge salaries but as yet delivered nothing but dilution, why would a new investor buy shares in ZEN?
In this arbitration, the court seem to being asked to rule simply:
a) Was the license entitled to be renewed for an extended period under the terms of the CNAOG contract which Zenith inherited when it bought CNAOG from the China National Petroleum Company?
b) If so then what was the amount of production that was lost by this breach of contract and therefore what is the financial value of this loss
Obviously in addition to the CNAOG losses which seem quite straightforwards there is also the losses related to the Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (K.S.C.C)’s 22.5% but I feel that this could be a bit more complex because I am not sure that this deal was ever approved by the Tunisians.
The third arbitration seems to be by far the most complex of the three as it deals with issues related to the Tunisans deliberately blocking Zenith developing Sidi El Kilani and Ezzaouia. If this deliberate obstruction can be proved then Zenith can claim the potential for greater production that would have been achieved from both assets and therefore additional losses separate from those related to the second arbitration. But obviously there are many “ifs” and “maybes” in this one and I can see why it is going to take the longest. I do think that it is clever that Zenith have separated out the second and third arbitrations though.
I also think that the fact that Anima Dispute Resolutions have resigned from representing the Tunisians in this court case is very significant. According to their website they are a very experienced and internationally renowned law firm, so why would they stop representing the Tunisians in this case? It is not just because they think that they might lose as they would get paid for the work that they do anyway and lawyers do not walk away from high paid legal cases for no reason. To me, their resignation hints that there is something in there on the Tunisian side that is very rotten and they do not wish to be involved with – and if this is the case then it is potentially very beneficial for Zenith.
Finally, the mention of granting an extraordinary dividend to shareholders if the various arbitrations are successful is a very interesting move by the company and would be much welcomed by all of us. Obviously, I would like more information about what percentage of any award this extraordinary dividend would represent, but given that according to the 13th Feb 2024 fundraising RNS Andrea currently owns 9% of Zenith then it would obviously be in his own personal interest for any dividend to be as large as possible.
Decent posting by MGS
An interesting update from Zenith on the Tunisian arbitrations this morning. Here are my thoughts so far.
Arbitration 1 for $7.5 million expected to be decided this year
Arbitration 2 for $85.8 million to be decided by this time next year
Arbitration 3 for $48 million expected to be decided in 2027
On the face of it this all seems to make sense. The latest RNS has given a pretty comprehensive summary of what all of the arbitrations are about and where they sit in terms of settlement time periods.
The first arbitration is a relatively simple matter, as far as these things go. It is effectively a court case brought about by the fact that ETAP sold oil that was owned by EPZ (Zenith’s subsidiary) and did not pay Zenith their share of the money. So, as I have said for a long time now, this should be a pretty simple case to determine. If Zenith are owed the money then they need to be paid. It is also worth noting that this is the arbitration in which Zenith have already announced that they have seized $6.5 million of funds from an ETAP Swiss bank account. This means that the vast majority of the money is available for Zenith to receive as soon as the court order is made.
The second arbitration is less straightforward than the first as it has additional elements to it regarding loss of earnings based on Zenith not being able to operate their assets since the breach of contract by the Tunisians. As far as I understand the RNS this seems to relate to revenue that should have been received by Zenith from the moment of the company purchasing the CNAOG 22.5% of SLK, but that was not paid between then and the expiry date of the license in December 2022. It also relates to money lost from the Tunisian government refusing to grant Zenith the right to renew the license that CNAOG appear to have possessed in their original agreement – though it is not made clear how long this right to renew was for. This arbitration also includes a similar claim related to the KSCC 22.5% of SLK.
This arbitration is a fair bit more complex than the first one as it relates to loss of earnings and potential earnings rather than just the non-payment of a bill (as per arbitration 1) but it still does not seem too complex. In this case, the vast majority of the damages it seems to me relate to loss of earnings from the refusal to renew the 22.5% license from December 2022 for an extended term. Assuming that the CNAOG contract with the Tunisians was watertight, and based on the fact that the previous owner of CNAOG was China’s national oil company and the Tunisians would not have dared to mess them around it is probably safe to assume that it was. Then the case relates to damages for years worth of oil production that Zenith has not been able to access and this is why the numbers in this one are so big. Obviously we do not know how long the license was to be renewed for, but Zenith do and it must be for a substantial period.
Ha ha ha! They must have a strong defense.
"The Investors were informed on March 18, 2024, that Anima Dispute Resolution, an international law firm dedicated to international arbitrations appointed by the Republic of Tunisia as specialist counsel, had resigned with immediate effect."
Tunisia must be bricking it now. Pay up sooner better that later. The bill is only going up while they don't.
"Following certain additional breaches committed by the Republic of Tunisia to the material detriment of the Investors since the commencement of the ICSID Arbitration, the Investors are, in consultation with expert third-party consultants, determining a revised increased claimed amount to be submitted."
Taverham In the event of a favorable outcome in the court case, I anticipate that enforcement will not present significant obstacles. Tunisia's close ties with Europe render it unlikely to pursue an independent course akin to Iran's defiance of international law. Moreover, Tunisia's ongoing application for assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), coupled with the recent appointment of a new central bank governor, underscores its commitment to financial stability and compliance. Failure to honor international arbitration penalties, particularly those mandated by Washington, would jeopardize Tunisia's access to IMF funding. Additionally, specialized international funds exist to purchase granted but unenforced awards from successful claimants at a discounted rate, assuming responsibility for enforcement and subsequently realizing profits upon receipt of funds. This practice is now commonplace within the international arena.
Current mkt cap at the moment is tiny- gosh these were around £12 a share historically looking back at the charts!
"As any lawyer will tell their client, there is usually no good commercial reason to sue “a man of straw”. Put simply, there is no point bringing any proceedings if you cannot enforce them."
https://www.franciswilksandjones.co.uk/international-arbitration/
Lol, so no one trades with Tunisia as they want to develop a reputation of non payers! I still believe this will come good and they won't be allowed to get away with no paying up
Fre, it took us over 40 years to pay iran money we owed them for Tanks that were not delivered and even then we only paid to get some hostages back - what leverage does Zen have ? If it were a bhuddist company , zen might stand a chance lol.
'So after millions spent in the courts the company wins the ruling but Tunisia does not pay, then what?'
It does trade with BRICS and becomes an ally with Russia and Iran?
I suspect just one person in Tunisia in a position of power is responsible for these events. I would like to know what their motivation was for their actions, possibly because they were not getting a 'kickback'?
Until the money owed is in our accounts we are in a bit of a bind. However it is a weight off my mind considering I'm 80% down in this.
Around $140million due to ZEN, can't jus get away with it, they'll need to pay up
So after millions spent in the courts the company wins the ruling but Tunisia does not pay, then what? Send them a threatening letter ? Send the boys round? Is any African country a safe place to do business these days?
Extraordinary dividend to shareholders too and claim value way way above current market cap. Nice update
Sounding positive on all 3 fronts just about how long the cases and payments actually take.
It would could to understand what is happening to recover money owned from SNPC in Conga in addition the outstanding Paris court case.
Hi just post it on here but somewhere else, enter sandstorm into the search bar it will bring up ovgm a canadian company nobody posts in and post it there ;-)
" For Cattaneo, the aim is still to broaden his horizons. After visiting more than 130 countries, the Italian is now setting his sights on the West. His sights are set on the United States. “I feel more secure when investing there,” comments Cattaneo. Betting on the world’s largest economy is an obvious choice. "
" n Tunisia, for example, the situation suddenly capsized in 2022. After a variety of breaches of the investment law made by the local authorities, Zenith is now the Applicant in three arbitrations against the Republic of Tunisia, two in the International Chamber of Commerce of Paris, and one in the ICSID, an entity created in Washington by the World Bank to protect investors confidence in bilateral treaties. The total amount of claims has reached 140.3 million USD. "
Didn't seen this before which shows us clearly the Congolese and the Tunisians cannot get away without paying us..............gla
Just catching up on Zenith on google search and found an article on AC....................interesting brief on him and his background...............DYOR
https://bmmagazine.co.uk/business/andrea-cattaneo-itinerary-of-a-self-made-man/
Paul what’s your email found the clip from couple weeks back. You might need an Arabic interpreter though. The court case will go in zeniths favour again just depends how much we need to pay back the legal people even 50% of 150m will be a huge result for us comparing to our current market cap. Everyone back into the crypto market and the uk stock market is getting no love, will change in a couple months though.
Seen a sell at 2.4p / 0.24p (pre consolidation)
Is this an all time low? What is the ATL? Anyone know for certain?
Or maybe the Tunisian court case is ?