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Been doing a bit of digging back to pre phase 2 when they had the raise to fund the exploration phase. There was a requirement to secure the necessary funding to have it in place to sign the drilling contract. They needed a couple of rigs that could work round the clock 7 days a week etc. âYou cannot make those sort of commitments, unless you are sure you have the money in place to drill the required contracted metresâ which I believe was 20k metres to start with?
So if a phase 3 were to be advanced then we could arguably assume that they would need to do the same thing. I donât see that a third phase is in their consideration when assessing working capital requirements for next twelve months, as in the audited report statement. It is a big ask to rely on revenue from a new mine so early on in its initial production stage.
If that is the case itâs not likely the company will want to have a fund raise at these levels. So that may be the reason as to why Colin appears to have changed tact from what was implied at AGM to do a phase 3 to now, what was said in last BR podcast where he was distinct in saying that there would ânotâ be a phase 3.
You can make plans based on what you have at any given time, But you cannot make plans based on an anticipated share price in the near future.
I suppose a lot would depend on the availability of drilling crews going into the first quarter of â23 and what flexibility there could be generally in mining contracts. But also to bear in mind is the capital outlay that will be set aside for strategic growth from that increased revenue, in looking for small, low cost start up, near production ready, minimal risk, safe jurisdiction Joint ventures that are important for the medium to long term longevity of the company
What makes you think a Phase 3 drilling programme is on the cards at all? Colin Bird (in an interview, not RNS'd admittedly) has stated there won't be one. IF one was needed and IF cash was required for it I would have expected to see activity aimed at generating interest in the company's successes (Manica full commissioning, talking up the drill results at Bushranger more actively), with a view to propping up the share price.
Why go to the trouble and expense of updating the MRE for Racecourse and creating a maiden one for Ascot, and updating the conceptual pit study and declaring the decision to mine if they were then going to embark on a further drilling programme?
We've been told to expect significantly increased production rates at Manica to be reporting in the 'next reporting period' and the updated conceptual pit study before the end of the year. 2 months left for both of those. And in the meantime the company can share progress with AA if they want to pre-empt things a bit. I don't think there is anything preventing from them getting on with this if felt appropriate.
RNS Sep 30th: "The Company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and define a maiden mineral resource for the Ascot prospect. The open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect will also be updated" ... and ..."The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."
RNS Oct 6th: "Xtract is now incorporating all the geological and geochemical data from the Ascot prospect into a geological model which will be used to estimate a maiden Mineral Resource (JORC 2012) for the Ascot prospect. In tandem with this, a revised resource estimate is in preparation for the Racecourse deposit. This will then be used as the basis for an updated conceptual open pit mining study."
Hey ZM I was just speculating of course, just wanted to come up with a more feasible reason than, âcould well have been just giving investors what they needed to hear at that time,â when responding to why Colin had said there would now, ânotâ be a phase 3 in most recent BR podcast.
it was reported back from AGM that there âwouldâ likely be a phase 3 after possibly getting a no from AAâŚâŚ
Just offering a reason as to why, if it is the case, there has been a change of plan since AGM