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Funny how uk brexited the eu bureaucracy. EU has approved the merger and the UK is still stuck in it own bureaucracy for another year. Bailey still on the fence with interest rates Hunt soaking tax out of citizens with the personal tax allowance fixed whilst inflation and the cost of living is a raging wild fire
Fleccy
'UK Three merger will get approved toward the end of next year'
I think that timeline is the CMA who will shortly give guidance. I think end of 2024 for the remedies eg spectrum rebalancing etc.
As soon as the security decision is made in parliament, sometime next week or next month, VOD 3 will just start. They are ready to rock and roll now.
Hi Dan, I didn't think you would, but you sounded a bit wobbly when talking to Fleccy, I have to admit i have been tempted to sell, As Gary59 was saying we've had a bit of a bull run lately, my lgen/aviv/psn/mng have all been making good gains lately and even my Lloyds share are back in profit, it's a shame to see Vodafone dropping down to this level, but i'm not going to sell at these prices and take a big loss, there's a lot of extreme views on here lately from this is 100% safe and and going to return a big profit, to the other extreme that it's going Bankrupt
I'm sure your level headed enough to realise nobody knows, if we did we could get very rich, it could drop further or could start rising
Let's hope 2024 will be a better year for Vodafone
Best of luck mate
Mesh I've previously looked at the adjusted EBITDAal Margin and I agree Italy looks better than the UK, but Italy has seen a steeper decline on the Organic growth figures. Going just off the figures it's hard to know what Vodafone's turnaround plan is, but I believe them when they say things will improve. Hopefully they'll announce something on Italy soon, and the UK Three merger will get approved toward the end of next year. All the articles use debt to bash the Telecom companies, but Telecom companies have always maintained quite high debt levels by choice, so I'm not sure that's a valid concern. If the dividend does remain affordable and Vodafone don't cut while they're executing their turnaround plan, then it's winner winner Chicken dinner, otherwise I'm happy for Vodafone to drop the dividend if it pushes the share price up.
Not expert but €63.4bn is c €2.35 per share and what the statutory authorities say is the net realisable value.
The enterprise value higher?
I imagine E& would pay €20bn for the brand including the partner markets model in Africa.
Fleccy,
The biggest mistake Vod did was the acquisition of Mannesman at the peak of .com boom. The best deal they made was actually the sale of verizon at a price of $130bn? Today Verizon is trading at less than $160bn!
What the greedy and destructive Colao should have done was to pay off all debt first before handing out money to shareholders. Read, a disciple of Colao followed in his footsteps and now MDV is reversing their mistakes. She has for sure experience from both of these chaps and if she is savvy, she knows where the mistakes were made. This is why an outsider will have a much tougher job to appreciate the moving parts and the context.
Now, currently the Italian business has better margin than the uk unit, so I would prefer a tie-up like that with liberty global in Nl than a complete sale given the sheer size of the italian business and the future italian potential. Bear in mind Italy never managed to recover from the -08 crisis, but they will turn the bend soon enough. Its a powerhouse when it comes industrial production and a fantastic asset with a huge population. I would have not sold it off.
With the tie-up, net debt will be reduced, similar to the proposed 3 plans. The core pillars of vod in mainland europe are, germany, italy and nl. Orange dominates the eastern european side and france with DT maintaining the Dach region with some other adjacent regions.
Vod can't therefore afford to lose its strategic positioning. The world of deal making is a dirty one and agents will do all they can to force the hands of the weak ones. You think vod would get as a offer for its assets if sp is as suppressed levels or at 160+? So, yes, they will use all tools in their toolkit to achieve their goals. This is why slid shareholders are pivotal in maintaining an astute vision and leadership to fend off hyenas.
interesting times ahead.
As at the end of March net assets were 63.4 Billion euro according to the London stock exchange site
what do you make the nav to be. my ‘packet of *** packet ‘ number for vod is about £1.25. any of you more experienced vodafone pundits have a valuation? cheers
Poker I can't deny Vodafone have made some dubious purchases, but they've done that going all the way back to the Mannesmann purchase in 2000. India hasn't gone well due to the Indian Government/Regulators, rather than Vodafone management. The German Liberty Global assets are a purchase I didn't understand, I believe Liberty sold those assets because they saw the regulatory changes on the horizon and the fact that industry is moving away from DOCSIS/HFC to FTTP; That said I don't have the visibility of the business that Vodafone has, so they may see something I don't.
Vodafone Group is run like a hedge fund holding Telecom assets, over the years they've shown themselves to be ruthless in the way they run their business, dispensing with assets as required. I've seen the way Vodafone works when it comes to deals, since I was working for CWW when Vodafone took us over, which in my opinion they bought at a ridiculously low price aided by the CWW BOD through a Scheme of Arrangement deal. Once they took over CWW, they quickly ended the Final Salary scheme and split some parts of the business into UK and other parts into Group to suit their plan.
It was back then I first invested in Vodafone and did well as a result of the Verizon Wireless deal, at which point I traded out jumping back in around 150p a long time afterward, of course I never imagined that the price would drop this low at the time. I'm quite confident I'll profit from my Vodafone investments at some point, I'll wait until then.
I agree, MDV doesn't instill hope, speaks rather superficially, and has next to 0 charisma, aside from all of Vod's recent business blunders.
SP would react positively to news of a sacking.
"Jax we're still awaiting your assessment of Vodafone's Financials, suggesting they'll go bust?
You seem to go quiet when asked to back up your assertions with facts."
--
like a snowflake, as soon as the heat is turned up, they melt away😂
Also waiting for the same gang to reveal vod's publicly traded assets. First they probably need to take a simple calculus class as it may involve some arithmetic.
Hello rob. I doubt I will sell any at this very low price. I think the sp will recover, but who knows. I find it more annoying when I sell a share & the sp goes up, than if I hold or buy & the sp goes down. Maybe there is a little bit of Fleccy in me? I believe. (Miracle on Wall St).
Jax we're still awaiting your assessment of Vodafone's Financials, suggesting they'll go bust?
You seem to go quiet when asked to back up your assertions with facts.
This lady CEO is not looking to grow the business but sell and merge the company with all the poor service providers like three, sale to Zegona on desperation, now trying to merge italy business.. So with spain gone, UK , Italy business merging, are they going to merge Germany business too ? If this is what her job as CEO, then she should not be in the job.
Anyway, I think she will be sacked soon. Revenue falling, debt growing, paying huge dividend thinking that will keep investor happy, share price at lowest to 1995 level with no signs of improving.
She should resign by saying "I am not good enough!" like said for vodafone.. LOL
Didn’t you think that at 90p Avi
Then 85 then 80 then 75 then 70 lol
If it doesn't then it will be up to the next government to approve what happens to 3 and Vodafone in terms of asset sales to whom. Heaven forbid if 3 were to be sold to a big Labour donor.
Apologies, meant to say how much of that market cap could be attained (in absolute €) by vod if they were to sell their complete stake.
PS @LSE, please introduce an edit feature. So annoying.
To sceptics,
Which Vod owned subsidiaries are listed and what is their current market cap based on Friday closing price(s).
How much of that is the value could attain if sold?
Anyone know the timetable?
As far as I can tell, parliament approving or identifying the assurances pretty much seals the deal.
Hutch own major ports like Felixstowe, Harwich, Thamesport. Not sure why the existing uk telco operation (20 years) is a risk merged with VOD as chinese equipment concerns already addressed.
At this bargain price it would be mad not to fill yer boots.
The only person that would buy Vod is fleccy
Can I have 62.5p for next week please.
'they paid €7.2bn for ONO'
9 years depreciation [more than €2Bn] and have been servicing dividends.
Service Revenue declining near 6% pa, so time to give it to someone else who runs a different operating model and avoid the structural stagnation.
Dont think they want to sell Italy but may need valuation for year end review of the balance sheet carrying c€60Bn net assets.
City took this up to 80 recently off a long period around 70 - 73. Presumably they are hoping for 60p, rotation and then back to 70-73 on FY performance.
I am happy to take a dividend and wait for the policy makers to wake up
Curtin
I doubt very much the EU would allow ETG to buy 80% of VOD and be a major owner of a major EU Telecom operator
....Saudi Telecom STC had the Spanish Government investigate them taking just a 9.9% stake in Telefonica
I think Emirates Telecommunication Group Company (ETG), which is owned by Emirates Investment Authority (EIA) could very easily make a bid for Vodafone and then sell some assets to help financing the deal: for instance it could sell Italy to Xavier Niel.
EIA owns 60% of ETG, which has a market capitalization of 46B$ vs Vodafone’s 22.2B$. Based on 2022 data, ETG has limited debt: the figures are not very clear to me, but gross debt is between 13 and 17 B$.
With very little support from EIA, ETG could make a bid for 80% of Vodafone offering a 50% premium over current stock price. That would cost 22.2B$ x 1.5 x 80%=26.6B$. In addition, ETG would absorb Vodafone’s debt, which could be served and paid back easily just by cutting dividends.