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on the last call management said FDA letter was not one of product efficacy or biologics and there was no trial data resubmission issue. the problem was with Triss, the manufacturer and its production process. but both Triss and Vernalis have been understandably vague as to what the specific problem is. They've also avoided making themselves hostages to fortune by giving us a deadline when it will be solved, except that they fully anticipate to be ready for next year's cough/cold season (but have missed this year's, obviously).
Anyone know if it was it a problem with the product or the production methods? With the tangible asset value per share around 16p this is well oversold.
well, that was uncomfortable, but at least we've got the clear-out trade under our belts (i hope/assume), and can now start to move on...over �60mn of cash, two products already on shelves in the US for the cough/cold season, promoted by a dedicated in-house sales-team, a drug-discovery business which is on track for a conservative �6mn this year and the stock is trading at -ve EV, i.e. trading at less than the cash it holds. wow.
well, it's certainly drifted lower than I thought it would..it's now trading at around zero EV, given that it's got over �60mn in cash...you'll have to wait a good year or so before there's any real talk of another funding round. I think the management comments were around the medium-term path to break-even; that having missed this winter for two key products they were unlikely to get to break-even without more cash. I understand but don't agree with your strategy from a risk-reward perspective. if you think this company and its long-acting products can achieve meaningful revenue growth in the US, then days like these, with the stock utterly unloved, are the times to buy. but I don't wish to diminish the execution risks here - they are substantial although I would argue now overly discounted (but i thought that at 15p)...good luck!
interim result was positive but one thing that put me off was "we will require addtional financing in the future" although they have enough cash in the bank to cover working capital they will need to raise fund for commerical strategy. normally placing is at 20% discount so i will wait until the placing then i will buy in
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/back-to-back-fda-rejections-leave-vernalis-reeling
All in the price down here, Pugg1ey...
I would be very worried about the capability of the management team if they are trying to get approval on CCP-08 which had exactly the same issues as CCP-07, which hasn't been approved yet.
Ooo, machine picked up VER, whats going on here today? Keep eyes on it today.
Fair point! The results were fine...but the manufacture/ production problem that triggered the first response letter has now triggered a second letter for a similar product. That's clearly a disappointment. Maybe we should have been warned of that risk. If you think that they will overcome this factory prob in the next few months, then the stock is a big buy with a clear catalyst. Given the share price move over last year or so, I accept the market is sceptical. For the moment, this remains a contrarian's stock...but with the cash and the well-performing science biz, it may require patience but it's not a gamble...
Maybe not....
..the turn-around has begun. £61 mn of cash, its own100 person sales force and a string of high- margin science collaborations with industry leaders. This is a great entry point for investors....
hey, Freddie. nice to see you straying from the RENE chat. Vernalis is a really good buy here. The 'crash' in share price is linked to institutional seller and then, recently, a letter from the FDA requiring more work to be done on one of its cough/cold products. It's probably fair to say that it was over-bought after a Woodford-inspired capital raise during the biotech frenzy of 2015. There's some fear that one or both products may not make it to the shelf in time for winter. However, it has a lot of cash - £65mn off a market cap of £90mn, a very good computational biology team, generating a decent return on capital, and a good stable of lead molecules. For e.g. they're partnering with Servier on something called Mcl1, which has attracted a £2mn milestone payment and looks very promising..Servier are proper non-for-profit grown-ups in biotech. The most likely near term catalyst is probably going to be an RNS stating that they've addressed the FDA's concerns with respect to the cough/cold product (there was no clinical concern in the FDA letter, as far as I could interpret) and have approval. Good luck!
...I have to admit to knowing very little about recent events which may have caused the crash in sp. Anyone any views they can share with me while I consider dipping my toes in or not? Best wishes. Freddie
There is support all the way down. Could it be possible for a bargain buy in the region of pennies? Maybe maybe not. The problem with the last RNS of delayed signing off of their drug is there is a big possibility the drug will now not be on sale for the coming winter. Which means loss of revenues which would be a huge set back. Will the company have enough money coming in to tie it over? Time will tell.
Oh dear, there goes the support so where`s the bottom?
Not sure. I have noticed though LSE are missing a lot of RNS across many companies.
We did not miss it it wasn't shown on LSE either RNS, that is why I provided a link. Concerning the letter that RNSwas not on Ver website. Does an RNS get notified in order of their RNS number?
Price has closed as low as 18.75p (early 2012) and since revisited that price for a couple of weeks in mid 2013 before rising again. So expecting it to do the same again this time as its so close and under uncertain news. Traders will be looking to buy if it does go that low and could be good for the sp if it does with heavy buying, otherwise this could just stagnate in the very low 20p`s for a good while. MM`s...you may aswell just get it over with and drop the sp to 18.75p now!
short of stock .now a strong buy
yes those later reported are buys 22p to buy.currently.
Does your lse trades show any trades from before 8:30 apart from day before? Seems they have removed that £63k trade of the list. Still shows up on mobile though.
well seems to be 21.75p to buy.
Re-reading that rns, there is very little details. Could be very minor or major, "outstanding items that need to be addressed prior to the resubmission and approval of the NDA. " I still think there is more downside unfortunately for any holders. A set back that could be very minor, downward trend still and quiet time of year for drug sales. For any holders here I would say just hold and look to top up when there is signs of a reverse in trends. http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=87265002601921590236.png gla
100. Vernalis A tough year for Vernalis (VER) has seen it only just cling on to its place in the Aim 100. The share price of the cough and cold drugs specialist has been battered after sales of its first ‘home grown’ drug, Tuzistra, failed to take off as expected in the US. Chief executive Ian Garland admitted that the group hadn’t managed to get its commercial operations off the ground as quickly as hoped. But more recent signs are encouraging. In early March, even as the wider cough and cold season was slowing, Tuzistra enjoyed a 4 per cent rise in weekly prescriptions, meaning the group looks on track to reach broker Panmure Gordon’s full-year sales forecast of £15.8m. More encouraging still is the progress of the new drugs pipeline. Vernalis has two more cough and cold remedies in the late stage of clinical trials, due to announce results this year. Buy. MB