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Equity Developments have released a recording of yesterdays results presentation:
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/upgs-fyresults-investorwebinar?utm_campaign=UPGS&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=178375220&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8tvWhRyvbUr5H78W8gWn5WRQ7mBPaQQKru_ctZD6D2haP4fEsHu5H3KVAUCEIaEPZ_B7CG8L1iCshrqnjjhu-HzPm_Ow&utm_content=178375220&utm_source=hs_email
Yes, and I like that the bosses have skin in the game. I've been a holder for 4 years, average 66p. Could do with a few more like that.
OldGeorge
I sold a few weeks ago @ 182p fearing costly supply chain issues, having seem the S/P dive.
But re-bought first thing at 179p. So lucky to not lose out.
Well done you, for hanging on.
It pays to stay long here....
Mick, thanks for making that available. Encouraging. Glad I held. A three bagger-for me now. Came close to increasing my stake yesterday; unfortunately not close enough!
200p and FLYING.......
Conclusion
There’s not much comment on the supply chain situation, which is why sentiment moderated here in the first place, but perhaps that should be taken as a positive given the expectation of continued growth.
The folks over at Equity Development have a new note out and a fair value target of 275p. They expect adjusted earnings per share to continue increasing, from 10.6p this year to 14.1p next year and 15.3 the year after that. It’s a comprehensive note and well worth the read, far more thorough than you might see elsewhere for other companies.
There have been two recent acquisitions, with Salter looking particularly sensible. It’s a sizable and significant purchase that means UPGS shares continue to look reasonably valued even after the recent increase. It’s worth remembering that despite clocking up double digit long term growth CAGRs, the group is forecast to pay a 3.7% dividend in FY22 at the current share price.
M&A might well become a more regular feature in future as UPGS continues to drive growth. Online is performing well and the group’s move into supermarkets could see its branded products take share. International will also likely become more significant in the years ahead.
I would view any freight-related disruption as a temporary headwind that UPGS, as a quality operator, is able to navigate. Reports suggest these issues could last into 2023, so the problem should not be taken lightly, but I suspect the negative reaction to supply chain fears might end up proving to be a reasonable entry point.
https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-elta-w-7-l-upgs-893295?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=threaded
(subscription only....hence print out here)
Excellent set of numbers given prevailing market conditions. Key to growth and meeting outlook for 2022 will be management of stock levels and supply. Some of this won't be in UPGS's direct control. A lot will depend on relationships and the flexibility of the supply chain. This has previously been strong. European growth looks like it's slowed quite considerably - I am guessing that Brexit may have had an impact in this area or is it the prioritisation of Supermarkets and Discounters that have led to the tail off. A decent set of results that deserve 200p a share as a starting point.
UPGS’s combination of strong brands, targeted distribution channels and demonstrable success in M&A augurs well for sustainable growth. Moreover, the company’s track record in coping with disruptions associated with Covid19 should give investors confidence in senior management’s ability to handle any ongoing logistics problems associated with both international shipping and domestic haulage. Supermarkets and Online Channels continue to grow most quickly with advances of and 32.3% and 23.2% respectively in FY2021.
UPGS financial strength underpins our confidence in the company’s ability to continue to pay out dividends at a 50% pay-out ratio – i.e. a twice covered basis. Dividend yield is a salient valuation advantage of UPGS relative to its peers. Moreover, even at our fair value price of 275p, the company would not be rated out of line with peers on key EV/sales, EV/EBITDA and P/E measures.
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/brand-strength-underpins-strong-growth-outlook
UPGS’s combination of strong brands, targeted distribution channels and demonstrable success in M&A augurs well for sustainable growth. Moreover, the company’s track record in coping with disruptions associated with Covid19 should give investors confidence in senior management’s ability to handle any ongoing logistics problems associated with both international shipping and domestic haulage. Supermarkets and Online Channels continue to grow most quickly with advances of and 32.3% and 23.2% respectively in FY2021.
UPGS financial strength underpins our confidence in the company’s ability to continue to pay out dividends at a 50% pay-out ratio – i.e. a twice covered basis. Dividend yield is a salient valuation advantage of UPGS relative to its peers. Moreover, even at our fair value price of 275p, the company would not be rated out of line with peers on key EV/sales, EV/EBITDA and P/E measures.
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/brand-strength-underpins-strong-growth-outlook
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1455433975074377729
Total revenue increased 17.9 % to £136.4m· Underlying EBITDA^ up 28.3 % to £13.3 m · Underlying Profit Before Tax^ up 36.6 % to £11.2 m
· Profit Before Tax up 13.7 % to £9.5m Salter brand fully integrated and is expected to be significantly earnings enhancing
Ultimate Products, the owner, manager, designer and developer of an extensive range of value-focused consumer goods brands, will be conducting a live presentation following the release of their Full Year results. This will be hosted by Simon Showman (CEO), Andrew Gossage (MD) and Graham Screawn (CFO).
The event will take place at 1.30pm on Tuesday 2nd November 2021.
The online presentation is open to all existing & potential shareholders and registration is free. Questions can be submitted during the presentation and will be addressed at the end.
Register here for the webinar: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/upgs-fyresults-presentation-nov2021
Well that didn't go to plan at all. Finals not far away now
I'm confident long term. We haven't had a profit warning yet (based on supply chain issues) so that's a positive. I think the supply chain problems might slow our progress a little. This is why the shares have fallen I am assuming. However this isn't a perishable goods supplier and stock levels are normally kept as a buffer. I am confident the management team here will do their best - which is normally good. If it falls further I will be adding to my holding. Excellent opportunity to add below the placing price.
Added today at just below 180p - Hopefully UPGS will bounce from this 200 day average - From 2020 onwards it has only ever traded below it during Jan-June 2020. After that it's been trading above the EMA200.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1442510594670686220
added to holding on that 'out of blue drop' at 192p
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1440628546284634120
new hold ...Sustainable growth built on a focused brand portfolio (which now includes the Salter range), stronger distribution online and into supermarkets, plus further international progress
Pre-close FY2021 trading statement confirmed a strong end to the financial year with most key financial measures beating market expectations. Full report here:
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/another-year-of-good-growth-delivered
#UPGS announcement that it is acquiring Salter, the UK’s oldest housewares brand and notable for its scales, is a major positive step. The acquisition not only creates enlarged, outright ownership of a key brand and expands UPGS’s kitchen and bathroom offering, but also establishes a foothold in health & lifestyle. Moreover, the deal appears attractively priced for UPGS shareholders.
Salter’s impact on UPGS’s shares should be positive for two main reasons. First, the deal itself will result in an increase in FY2022 EPS. Second, it reconfirms the ability of the group’s management to acquire attractive brands at valuations that make sense for its shareholders. Assuming completion, based on a 1.9x target EV/sales ratio and a 20.0x P/E in FY2022 we revise our fair value / share upwards from 200p to 275p.
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/upgs-acquires-uks-oldest-housewares-brand
I'm with you there; average 66p and happy to hold. Just wish I'd had more confidence and topped up more when they were in the 30's. Surprised there's so little trading in this share.
Well this went to 200p and beyond a lot quicker than I anticipated. All eyes on progress against plan now and any potential opportunity for outperformance. I think we can likely expect the shares to tread a little water at present until we have a further update. I think the B&M (big customer of UPGS) results and the planned store expansion is a huge positive for UPGS. Still very happy to hold my shares here (something I have done for over 3 years now). I feel very fortunate indeed to have averaged 38p on this one overall. What started as a punt on a turnaround in what I thought to be a quality operation (post the post float share price fall) has turned into a quality investment that I am very happy to hold longer term.
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/upgs-interim-results-presentation
Simon Showman, CEO, Andrew Gossage, Managing Director, and Graham Screawn, Finance Director, discuss their Interim Results, their growing ambitions for all four pillars of their business, but with particular excitement about the potential for International and Online. They also discuss the challenges of mitigating headwinds around logistics, but reassure on the demonstrable resilience of their supply chain.
I have a feeling this will close in on £2 very quickly post the presentation yesterday. Not only did this demonstrate an excellent understanding of current fundamentals and drivers of business performance, but also a detailed insight into what the future holds for UPGS. For me this is a company that can certainly continue to grow both domestically and internationally. It is also run in the way that an owner manager runs their business - i.e. prudently whilst being able to adapt quickly as the trading environment changes. The purchase, development and growth of new brands is likely to continue, which should have a positive impact on both sales and the operating margin. I am going nowhere and will be hanging on to my shares.
Tuesday 4th May at 11am
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/upgs-presentation-and-qa-4th-may-2021
And a reserach note on today's results
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/broadening-the-scope-for-growth
In case you missed our webinar with UPGS the recording and stockopedia report can be found here: https://www.sharesoc.org/seminar/sharesoc-webinar-with-ultimate-products-upgs-23-february-2021/
To access the recording, you'll need to be a full member of ShareSoc, which is a not-for-profit organisation that supports individual shareholders and campaigns for shareholder rights. If you're not already a member you can join here: https://www.sharesoc.org/membership/
Once you've joined, you'll receive an invitation to register for our "members network" private social network, from where you'll be able to access the recording (and recordings/reports on 100s of other meetings). If you're already a member and have any difficulty accessing the report, please do not hesitate to contact us here: https://www.sharesoc.org/contact-us/
Good Review in Simply Wall Street this week
Shareholders of UP Global Sourcing Holdings (LON:UPGS) Must Be Delighted With Their 413% Total Return
Simply Wall St
Tue, February 9, 2021, 5:57 AM