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GingerHippo - looks much more like it.
FYI/fwiw, I'm currently modelling at c.£5m/$6m profit based on $40/bl - the only diff to you Is that as c.300boepd is gas and the economics not as good so i've factored that into the revenue to bring it down a bit.
I made a mistake in my previous calculation. Yesterday's RNS said "United's net production from the Abu Sennan asset as a whole likely to rise to over 2,500 boepd in the coming weeks"
6600 per month is hedged. 2500 per day is 75,000 per month, so 68,400 un-hedged:
(6600 x $60) + (68400 x $40) = $3.13M per month
x 0.43 = 1.35M
less (75000 x 6.5) = $860K
Which is £660K per month
£7.9M PA gross profit
Admin circa £2M
So net profit of around £6M
Cheers Badger, one for the conference call I think.
levistubbs - I do get you. i read it as just the one for the year in total - "Deferral of Egyptian Capex reduces 2020 infill campaign from 4 wells to 1 well, significantly reducing gross 2020 Capex estimates. Further optimisation of the Capex and Opex budgets is being considered". Given yesterdays good news and if the oil price behaves they can reinstate part of the programme?
Thanks Badger but was that one El Salmiyah? Or is the one another yet to be drilled which does make 2 of the 4 if you get me?
Bebeto - Hope so. They managed to get it past the auditors without a w/off so i'm hopeful of progress on Jamaica
That's my wages covered.
Are they going for another licence extension regarding Jamaica? TLW had written it off but have they? Why else would UOG be in talks.
6600 per month is hedged. 600 per day is 18000 per month, so 11400 un-hedged:
(6600 x $60) + (11400 x $40) = $852,000 per month
x 0.43 = 366,360
less (18000 x 6.5) = $249,360
Which is £191,815 per month
£2.3M PA net profit
trytryandagain - $60 is a for a fixed number of barrels, so anything else will be at the market price. Agree that the additional and unexpected $'s from El-Salmiya, combined with an improving oil price, might lead to them revising their plans
levistubbs - it went down to 2 in the ops/Cov-19 update a few weeks ago. If you look at the Chairmans Report in the Annual Report last week they mention 4 down to 1 there. They squirreled the news away a bit.
Ok thanks Badger, but I don't see why extra production wouldn't be covered by the $60 or why have such a high bopd figure.
They sound quite keen to push forward though and making the point the drilling programme is only deferred.
Still hopeful for a rise in oil myself so good to see the potential should markets improve.
We firmly believe there is significant additional potential across the Abu Sennan licence - and with further development going ahead to bring gas from the ASH field into production this year, and with a deferred drilling programme ready to be re-instated should market conditions improve, we are looking forward to further activity and newsflow from the asset."
Badger I think there is one other drill planned as the work commitments were cut from 4 planned to 2 planned wells because of the low oil price due to Covid as per the update?
trytryandagain - There aren't any further drills planned now in Egypt until the oil price moves north. If you read BL's comment in the RNS yesterday, he states "a deferred drilling programme ready to be re-instated should market conditions improve"... so possibly another in H2 if oil keeps moving on its current trend?
So there should still be 4 new wells this financial year as Egypt hasn't been slowed by the current Covid crisis.
Gingerhippo - No worries. Heres the link - Pages 6/7
https://www.uogplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/United-Oil-Gas-Acquisition-of-Rockhopper-Egypt-10-Dec-2019.pdf
Thanks. I'll read it after work
Gingerhippo - the PSC isn't something that's been particularly well disclosed - i'd recommend the December analyst paper on the website
GingerHippo well don't rely on HL either, take it as read there are 619m shares in issue, see the RNS in Feb.
Gingerhippo - replace the $60 in your calc with the current Brent price minus $2. These are new barrels and not hedged
Badger lol yes, well it was Polaris that got me all fired up. I had tried to calm his jets on the PERE thread when he was coming out with all sorts of nonsense but then he springs up here talking like he knew it all without doing any research again and relying on LSE figures ;-)
Lev, I got the mcap from HL.
I don't read Twitter at all.
I am reading Badger's posts since he told me about the 57% charge. I didn't know about that because it doesn't say it in the accounts which I read on Sunday.
GingerHippo the mkt cap is not #9m there are 619m shares in issue not what it says on LSE.
Please all read Badger's posts rather than twitter pump and dumpers.
So you're saying 600 x $60 = $36,000
x 0.43 = 15,480
less (600 x 6.5) = $11,580
Which is £8,907 per day
£3.25M PA
levistubbs - thanks mate, I noticed you trying to inject some reality yesterday - I gave up and thought id come back when the froth had died down!. The predictions of margin and mcap seemed to get more nuts as the afternoon wore on