Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
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I think whatever we can agree that real interest rates - inflation is going to be negative probably this decade. So will be interesting to see where people put their money and if SP500 index can beat inflation . Maybe big shift into gold/silver
I think interest rates will prob be allowed to sit at 3-4% and real inflation 10% odd. Keeping them negative just adds to the problem of borrowing more to buy bonds.But isnt logic that got us into this mess so who knows.
Lastly, I know negative rates is free money, but I think the banks will stop borrowing. There is already a massive contraction in credit for the masses. How long before this hits companies, who knows? Apologies for not posting, my likely incorrect, musings in several posts, but I'm currently walking around. Anyway, that's me done.
And sorry, to answer your question. No, I think actual interest rates will be negative and inflation will be allowed to rampage.
smiller. Governments are massively over borrowed. The BoE and the Fed can't keep giving away free money. Raising interest rates, to even as little as 3%, will cause a massive recession the likes of which we have never seen. I could very well be wrong, but ........
Forest if you think inflation going up why you think they would bring in neg nominal interest rates? You mean real interest rate will still be neg?
I don't much care for Basel III. My long-term play is inflation. The way I see it, either they change the World's monetary system and "reset" to a new, electronic, common currency or the Western nations, especially America, are in big trouble. The "threat" of interest rate rises appears to have temporarily hit precious metal prices, but in the medium to long term gold and silver are sure to start rising as people with wealth endeavour to protect their assets. And as for modern money theory allowing us all to live in comfort forever. Well it currently works if the Chinese are will to work 9-9-6, but it appears that the people are staring to kick back with their lie flat movement. I'm not a wealthy person, but I'm contemplating buying and holding gold at the Royal Mint over the next few years as I'm worried about holding precious metals at home. My thinking as that they will bring in negative interest rates within a year and it might pay to get in early. IMO the future isn't bright for the world but should be just fine for us Aliens.
GLA
@PaulQ - much as I'm a silver bug myself and would massively profit from rising prices, I think we need to exercise a little caution as to the immediate impact of Basel III.
Longer term it should allow the physical market to have a much bigger impact upon pricing metals than various unallocated paper derivatives. However it isn't a direct translation that Basel III will instantly kill the paper trade, it's merely a regulation governing how different assets can be valued to arrive at a bottom line on a balance sheet aimed at keeping banks solvent.
Silver, and to be honest gold, are both tiny markets compared to the huge sums that slosh around in bonds , Forex and equities. With the uncertain economic climate as it is at the minute many major banks are holding more and more free cash.
Don't assume that these banks will be rushing to buy physical metal over the next few days to cover their paper positions, some have enough free cash to double their paper positions in silver should they wish to without needing any more physical assets to balance their books, whilst others may just drift out of dealing with precious metals if the regulation becomes prohibitive, we've certainly see few bullion banks go already.
To play Devils advocate you could argue the end result of Basel III will simply be to massively increase premiums or spread on physical metals, making it more expensive to buy and less profitable to sell.... perhaps we've already been seeing this over the last several months in the run up?
I'm going to watch how things play out with interest, and as I say I do expect things to be positive for silver in the long run... I just like to present a counter opinion by way of maintaining balanced discussion, even if such views may be less popular with everyone here.
Chris2 and co are misleading everyone by talking about SLV paper silver... tell me where you can buy physical at under $30's an ounce exc VAT ... physical has disconnected with paper and paper will burn with Basel 3. Only a little while to go.
And UFO SP is correlated with silver however when iron ore gets jorc compliant the silver price will probably affect us less so as DSO will make up the bulk of the company value imo