The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Totally unrelated and anecdotal, but I have some experience submitting paperwork to government employees, all working from home. What was supposed to take about 4 months in total ended up taking about 6 months just to get fully submitted and about 13 months to be approved. Everything takes longer than you expected due to covid and that's in the US.
I heard they were knocking on the door asking to put a pipe through the wall
The market was cutting us a lot of slack back in those days. Coho then massive cascadura 1-ST then massive Cascadura Deep. Chinook only 1/5 km from Cascadura and everyone thought this was easy with gas after gas after gas.
Chinook was even announced as a gas discovery based on resistivity. Opps it was oily water and a lot of water. That is when trouble in paradise began. Chinook results blew it up. That also unfairly stained Royston results although the Royston intermediate sands had no water and the well bore got ruined by stuck drilling string that could not be retrieved. In reality Royston is going to be big find and likely will produce from intermediate sheet and sub-thrust. And Chinook is still promising for an up dip test well, though at present it is a dirty word in the TXP fishery lexicon. That could flip some day.
I am hopeful we can get these three wells producing (starting with first gas at Coho imminently)and that we have plenty of development locations (Coho 1 and Cascadura 6-8), that we can ramp production steadily and efficiently for next two years. Royston is also going to provide some development locations very soon (after Royston 1-ST that will all become more clear, especially if they can successfully test the sub-thrust with that well. Then lots of good things could happen on the exploration side, setting up even more development possibilities.
There,s old saying " you never see a poor farmer" or l am not right in the tractor" or am l, Yee Has
'12p to £4 in 5 years will do for starter' Yee Haa Lexion!!
Remember Malcy's recent words after Q1 report and operations update ......
"Touchstone remains one of the outstandingly cheap stocks within this sector..."
There are reasons for that. And delays in production and revenues is a big part of that. But somewhat ironically the path forward could be a smooth and steady climb in share price, if they can just execute. Starting with first gas at Coho. Let's offer them forgiveness (a pardon) on that day and judge them going forward. Coho and then Cascadura will be the first new gas on-shore in Trinidad in decades and naturally there have been a few challenges.
Many reasons these last 12 months to be negative - but things will change out of all recognition next 2 years
Legacy and Royston EWT in April 1500 bopd
Coho 1 10 mmcf/d
Coho 2 Similar
Cascadura start up 60 mmcf/d with ramp up to 180 within 18 months
Royston I believe will be huge and if sidetrack comes in at 1000 Bpd - then I’m thinking 5000 bpd is easily doable with development wells
We should be producing 30000 boed net to TXP - Realistic not wildly optimistic and with nothing in for the monster Kraken -more than enough to justify £4 a share and a 6% divi
I’m feeling pretty relaxed to be fair
12p to £4 in 5 years will do for starters
GLA
This is a golden oldie and a blast from the past. This is from the 12/12/2019 RNS after final testing of the Coho well.
"Final testing of the Coho-1 exploration well displayed natural gas rates that greatly exceeded the Company's expectations and is expected to materially contribute to our near-term growth. With production testing and analysis completed and verified independently, the Company has a clear indication of the potential of Coho-1 and is moving forward to bring the well on stream in the first half of 2020."
There have been multiple new target dates since then, one following the other. The Coho well was selected as first drill of the Ortoire exploration program because of close proximity (3 km) to an underutilized natural gas processing facility with excess capacity.
The spigot has been turned to off since that date. What happens when the turn it on. Should flow fine but may need some time to clean up and reach steady state.
First gas at Coho really will call for a ribbon cutting and a new cve celebration. Hopefully it will be the first of many well hook ups with the two Cascadura exploration wells and a second Coho well and new Cascadura Development wells adding to production serially and smoothly as they transition from an exploration company to a significant oil and gas producer.
Eyeore has posted a link to coho satellite image on the other site. One of the best images we’ve had of the area for months. These are my comments on the image comparison below (also on other site)
Looks to me like they are working around 50m from the shell facility. The white dot may possibly be the digger. But also if you compare the image with the 13th you can see a large pile of dirt on the one side of the road that wasn’t there 5 days ago. Also where there was vegetation around the shell facility it is now mud so recent activity there.
Nearly finished??? ………fingers crossed……