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I have a different metric I use in life, but it’s similar to your Coho metric.
I convert things to liters of home brewed beer. Like if I change the tires (winter / summer) on the 3 vehicles myself, vs. getting the garage to do it (176 USD), I can buy the ingredients to brew 100 liters of beer. That’s beer that the equivalent of in the store would cost around 1,050 USD here, and in the bar would cost a whopping 4,235 USD. So it helps me to put things in perspective and do things I don’t necessarily want to do. Put a banana in front of the monkey.
Ok. I was just thinking you spend a lot of time on TXP for 3000 shares. Good that you have increased that significantly.
I wasn’t far away from a million shares pre Coho, and then thought I should maybe not be going so hard at it in case something happened and reduced. I think about this almost every day, and yet here we stand so close to being 5 for 5 (I count Chinook as a hit until otherwise proven wrong on up dip drilling). On the flip side, we were maybe closer to something going wrong than most realize, and so it was the proper thing to do. I look forward to the day when we have major cash flow to take care of any issues that might arise without getting killed, and are drilling a bunch of production wells into known formations which are less prone to surprises.
No I have over 60,000 shares and I am still buying. But I only had 3000 for the first 6 years until I felt that Coho and Casca 1-ST validated the turbidite sands on-shore in Trinidad model and maybe changed the old adage that Trinidad was where geologists go to die. I think Xavier Moonan has also been very determined to prove that wrong. I think he has contributed a lot to the whole country, as an important educator (he is curious, enthusiastic, and inspirational) as well as a contributor to resurgence of oil and gas sector which is so very important to the economy. Paul has been important too - he is a solid leader.
Scott, so you have like a few thousand shares of TXP?
I kind of like it. A Coho is 3000 boed ( production after the second well comes on line) or about 18 mmcf gas per day which is conservative).
Legacy shallow oil production is about 1/2 Coho with long term goal of steady production near 1 Coho tops. (3000 bopd would be super).
Cacadura may come in at 2.5 Coho and ramp over to years to 10 Cohos.
Royston who knows but 10-20 Cohos certainly possible.
The reason that this is important is that it gives context to history of TXP and relative valuation of entire company.
My first shares converted from Petrobank on 1/11/2013 at $2.06 (all number $US for this exercise). I only got 500 shares with the conversion. They only had the legacy blocks - the goal was to drill infill wells and work overs and get production over time up to 1 Coho. That was the whole deal. They wanted other avenues for growth but were looking for a plan. The share price naturally dropped because growth prospects were less than awesome. On 1/16/2013 I 500 more at $1.92. On 11/11/2013 I added 500 more at $.65. AS;; that was based on a plan to eventually get to a 1 Coho company. Then in 2014 they bid on Ortoire block and actually a few off shore ideas too - I bought bought 1500 more on 4/09/2014 at $.72 based on the idea they were looking at other avenues to become a bigger company.
But acutally they studied and studied (old seismic and every old Ortoire well bore after getting data from Shell mainly but from other sources. XM was a consultant (he was working for Petrotrin, precursor of Heritage). He was presenting at scientific conferences his ideas about turbidite sands. He always started those international talks with a joke about Trinidad being the place where geologists go to die, presumably from not finding anything commercial. Then he laid beautiful story about importance of turbidite sands on shore Trinidad. He pointed out that turbidites were not well appreciated in 1950'sand 1960's when exploratory wells were being drilled on Trinidad, but had since become well known as the geology underlying all the off shore conventional gas pools. Why couldn't the sands that flowed off the same continental blocks but were laying under Trinidad have the same hydrocarbons as those sands that flowed a little further and ended up offshore to east of the island (and elsewhere in many different locations). I did not buy or sell a single share during that whole time but being a small owner and a XM fan kept me following the story with high interest. I also became a Paul Baay fan listening to his presentations. I was excited about the 5 well exploration program, even though the legacy blocks had become boring, had gone through a low oil price interval (or two) , did not provide a credible investment thesis based on growth.
So what happened is Coho. November 18, 2019 it flowed at 17.5 mmcf/day. I said wow that is 1 Coho and that was target for the entire legacy operation which is at half that now. (usin