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On the beach released results this morning... SP currently sitting around minus ~11%
Yes but it was up over 15% yesterday!
Yes, I've poured through OTB results and revenue was up 11% which I think is lacklustre because inflation over than 12 month period would have done heavy lifting to support that figure... so to book just 11% revenue growth is below par for the course imo.
Savage, I believe the OTB numbers reported were H1 '24 over the 6 month period of Oct 23 to Mar 24 when inflation was averaging c4% over the period, not defending the numbers, however it's important to ensure we are sharing accurate numbers. Good luck to all TUI holders for 2m.
Hi OTCDS2023 - It's correct the RNS is an update for the 6months ending 31st March 2024 but.... the revenue growth figure of 11% is clearly reported in the table header as "H1 24 vs H1 23" and then in the note further below as "resulting in Group Revenue of £80.8m, +11% YOY" (below the title in bold named Financial headlines, 1st Para, after the second comma).
OTCDS2023 - using ONS monthly inflation figs (12x values) from Mar 23 to Mar 24 I calculate the average inflation rate to be 6.31% over that time period. There's no YoY value available yet because ONS still has the figures for the most recent months under review but... I feel my general point remains valid because subtracting the 6.3 from the 11% revenue growth which OTB received it leaves just 4.7% and frankly I'd have expected better than this. Of course it's true that 4.7% is not to be knocked too much but... It's not the kind of stellar performance required to ratchet up the market cap value of the business significantly imo because after the summer 2024 draws to an end there is a challenging economic landscape for UK in particular with rising unemployment, high debts and falling residential property market... so the revenues will be needed to weather the winter storms ahead.
OTCDS2023 - The most kind inflation value I could estimate for the YoY time period in question was 5.575% but... I think this may prove too generous and the eventual figure probably lies somewhere in the middle ~6% once the dust settles (6.3% may equally prove to be too high). So... max true revenue growth for OTB imo is 5-5.3% - which I think is below par, granted it's not intrinsically bad but the cash raised in this set of results and over summer 24 needs to be very healthy and imo OTB has begun with a less than ideal start. Will this trend be felt by TUI too? Or has TUI done better?...
Savage, you just want to look at the revenue period of H2 '24 (Oct 23 - Mar 24) as H2 '23 is your baseline. Over the H2 '24 period inflation was c4% so you are looking @ 7% true growth (in your language)
OTCDS2023 sorry but the OTB RNS title directly contradicts what you're saying because it states:
INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH 2024 ("H1 FY24") - By their own title on their own RNS with the key bit being 'FY = Financial Year' - it's clear that H2 FY24 has not happened yet because that time period would be End Sep 24 and that's also reflected in their RNS where it states "WELL POSITIONED FOR H2 FY24".
I give up Savage, have another look and come back to me.....the 11% uplift is not a forecast it is actuals based on real numbers...hope you don't work with numbers...
OTCDS2023 - I know that these are actuals and that's my very point... yes, OTB reported "+11% YOY" revenue growth but... from End March 2023 to End March 2024 the Approx. inflation rate is in fact around ~6% (not yet possible to know for certain as ONS take a long while yet to revise and correct the YoY and Quarterly figures, so meanwhile I've calculated the approx. average inflation rate between the two points in time using their current published figures but acknowledging they're subject to being revised). That said I won't be a million miles out. The current inflation rate is now ~4% but that's not the rate one should apply to what is a YoY revenue growth figure as stated by OTB in the RNS, you have to also use the YoY inflation figure over the same time period else it's not a like for like comparison.
You still don't understand the reporting, the comparator (11%) is 'not end March 2023 to end of march 2024' - The YoY H2 period reported by OTB is looking at H2 '23 (Oct 22 - Mar 23)) vs. H2 '24 (Oct 23 vs. Mar 24) - this is how YoY quarterly/H1/Full year reporting works. This is why you use the c4% inflation number.
Incorrect - Top right corner of the table on RNS page states: H1 24 vs H1 23 - It states revenue for H1 23 was £72.9m and H1 24 was £80.8m - the change between them being 11%. So to ensure comparative analysis one needs to take account of the inflation rate between those two reporting periods too, and it was much higher than 4% because if you go back to H1 23 the inflation rate for the quarter ending 31st March 2023 was a massive 9%! Now ye, it gradually declined since then but... infation accumulates.
Its not incorrect savage...but good that you now appreciate how the 11% H1 number is arrived at i.e. its not from Mar 23 to Mar 24 re; inflation - have a look at an earlier post when I mentioned 'baseline' to arrive at the 4% inflation number.
For OTB: Their H1 FY23 ran from Oct 22 to Mar 23 i.e. accumulated revenue raised during that period, which ended on 31st Mar 23 totalled £72.9m.
Similarly, H1 FY24 ran from Oct 2023 to Mar 24 i.e. accumulated revenue raised during that period, which ended on 31st Mar 24 totalled £80.8m.
Difference between them being 11% revenue growth.
ONS Inflation rate for the Quarter Ending 31st Mar 23 = 9%
ONS Inflation rate for the Quarter Ending 31st Mar 24 = 3.9%
We could just take those two inflation rates, add them together and divide by two i.e. to obtain very crude average inflation estimate of the YoY inflation rate (6.45%) but... it'd be subject to lots of variation taking place in between those two date points in time... Yes, ONS has the other quarterly and monthly inflation rates in time points in between to use with making a different estimate but... it's still an estimate, as we have to wait for ONS to publish the official YoY figure which looks to be about 6.8% according to ONS at the moment but... it may end up being lower than this.
In short... your 4% figure is way way off the mark
I will try for the last time......glad I've had a slow day - You have your baseline (H2 23) and we see an uplift in H2 24 of c11%? What has driven the uplift? Revenue in H1 24 of c11%? The inflation rate over the period of H1 24 (that we need to factor in) was 4% so we arrive at our 'true' revenue growth of 7%.
Incorrect OTC - That's because the 3.9% inflation rate by ONS is just for one quarter i.e. 2 months of End Jan24 to End Mar 24. You need to use the YoY inflation rate from ONS from End Mar 23 to End Mar 24 to directly compare the revenue to the inflation over the same time period. You can't just pluck the most recent and lowest of the figures to suit your narrative.
Incorrect OTC - That's because the 3.9% inflation rate by ONS is just for one quarter i.e. 3 months including End Jan24, End Feb24 and End Mar 24. You need to use the YoY inflation rate which ONS will eventually publish (as only their estimate of 6.8% is available right now) from End Mar 23 to End Mar 24 in order to directly compare the revenue to the inflation over the same time period. You can't just pluck out the most recent and lowest of the inflation figures to suit your narrative. You have to use the inflation rate which aligns with the OTB reporting points in time which this morning were END Mar 2023 to END Mar 2024.
The 4% inflation rate is for H2 '24 over the revenue period - (Oct-23-Mar 24) - I give up with you as you don't know what you're talking about (as with most of the time)
OTCDS2023 - BoE were clear in their 'Key judgement 3' within the latest MPC report... BoE said Services CPI inflation fell to 6.0% in March and OTB is a services based business. So lets await the myriad of proper published figs (as most currently available out there from the various sources including ONS are just estimated figures) which will land and get further refined in due course but what is clear to me is the revenues banked into the coffers of OTB over the reported period has a lot of help from inflation and that's somewhere in the approx. range of 3.8-6.3% depending exactly what's being measured and how... I still stand by my general point which is ~11% was below expectations and may help explain why OTB has not faired so well today. Now I don't know if that extends to TUI or not... I guess we won't have long to find out.
Savage... so we're now on service inflation...... I thought you were on headline?