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Longjohnantimony
We need to take in to account that the relationship between TSTR and the Omani’s is Acrimonious to say the least otherwise why would they call in the arbitrator. This would be the reason for radio silence. The Omani’s will be giving Tri Star as little information as possible especially if they are negotiating some kind of deal.
Hi Harley; gotta be positive my average is 80p, but lucid too. If the deal for supply by Traxis is dead, and a replacement is not yet established that is a worry. Likewise sales.....replace existing sellers, not simple, just discount?. But as you say how do we know what is for real.
So if this is all baloney and fake news let the Co. say out loud all is great, no probs here.
Either it isn't, great or the agenda is for keeping SP low.....another matter.
I am starting to get that good feeling again, Antimony is on the up again and Gold a bonus.
Longjohnantimony
You say RVS34 could be right. Where is the proof to back up these outlandish claims...
Of course there is plenty of feedstock how do you think they were able to get to 50% capacity and have stated they will be at 100% by end of Q1 2021. They are being offered feedstock all the time and it wouldn't make commercial sense to enter into a long term contract. They will obviously negotiate the best possible deals when required.
BTW I noticed on your last post you had a positive gut feeling about tstr - my gut feeling is we have a few de-rampers here trying to buy cheap shares. Judging by the closing SP it doesn't look like any of the investors wish to give them away.
RVS34 could be right. If the plant doesn't have feedstock and management has little clue into how to muscle in on existing antimony market (as well as all the deal making) it would go a long way to explaining why the SP is where it is, and sadly why it is likely to remain that way.
Until of course someone explains very clearly how this bells and whistles plant is going to deliver and invoice all those lovely kilotonnes of produce.
There is a lot more than GLA needed here.
RVS34
LOL - surprised to see a de-ramper on this share must require a short.
Filtered
Urban,
Indeed, everything was as good as it should be. However.
The enterprise stands today and there are several fundamental reasons for this.
1. Lack of raw materials. The agreement with Traxis was terminated long ago. There are three to five sources of suitable raw materials in the world, and they are now oriented in the other direction.
2. Lack of working capital. We see from the official information about unsuccessful attempts to raise funds.
3. Lack of a team. The last of a series of teams left their posts, there are only a few specialists who can work on such equipment and they are not in Oman.
4. Lack of a common opinion of shareholders on the development of the asset - Oman and London.
5. The market for antimony is a separate issue. The world does not expect an additional 20 thousand tons of antimony trioxide - this requires skill.
Otherwise, yes, all calculations are correct.
But an expensive car without petrol costs no more than scrap.
Thank you again,it is rare to see such well reasoned analysis which as you say illustrates this is not a speculative propsect,but yet there is deep value regardless of what comes next
The revenue figures show what is possible
Oman wants and needs this
I am a very content holder and will still look to add dips should there be more
Onwards
TTP
A great read UrbanFox, it's reassuring to be reminded of the great asset that we have in tstr.
Good luck to all!
Hi TTP
I'm glad you enjoyed the thread and found some value in it. I often carry out these review analysis every so often and really felt that TSTR was being undervalued with everything that we know has been achieved with the SPMP investment. I've been here, with this share for two years now, so long enough to understand some of the frustrations of the longer term PI's. Its always useful in this kind of scenario to look at the big picture and it is very promising indeed. Onwards and upwards.
GLA
Urban,what a truly marvelous thread,I have just bought some more
TTP
This Thread topic will come in 4 Parts...please commence the thread at #1 of 4. Thanks for following...
Enterprise Valuation Tri-Star
Continued....
Finally in the last round of capital fund raising for the SPMP Plant in June 2018, Crispin Odey of OAM , was quoted at that time in the press, stating his expectation of a Tri-Star equity value of at least $100 million.
Oman Observer - 23 June 2018
Crispin Odey, Founding Partner of OAM said: “We are delighted to continue to support Tri-Star and SPMP in this final fundraising before the SPMP Project goes into production. Our calculations indicate that, based on the price of this investment in Tri-Star through the Placing, we are investing in SPMP at an implied post-fundraising enterprise value of approximately $200 million, or a post-fundraising equity value of $100 million.
7. Summary
I've tried to be as brief as I can (I know 4 pages !) bearing in mind much of this information is known, but certainly well worth a review to remind ourselves of the World Class Asset at the heart of this investment. Does anyone think that Tri-Star is a speculative investment based on the content of the above? Many of the investors here have certainly behaved as if it were the case in recent months. The Roaster Plant alone is valued at $125 million and Tri-Stars equity share is worth 40% of that. In addition, is Tri-Star reliant on SPMP #drilling# for Gold or Antimony? Of course not, the company has entered into a 5 Year Supply Agreement with Traxys Europe (RNS dated 13.06.17).
Tri-Star's current Market Cap of £26 million ($33.54million) GIVES IT A Current Market ENTERPRISE VALUE OF JUST £13.0 million ($16.8million) after deducting the outstanding SPMP intra-company loan facility ($16.727m). The Tri-Star equity share in the Plant is valued at $50 million and along with the loan, we can conservatively value TSTR's raw business at the figure shown above: £51.7m ($66.7 million). And this takes no account of the added enterprise goodwill value for its share of the future revenues and profits from a World Class manufacturing Plant.
Good luck to all.