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In June 2021 tsl had a valuation of clearpay as £125 million. 6.5 cash and other assets were not included in that calculation therefore 70 odd million is way off. Secondly there is absolutely no evidence that the board of tsl will hold the block shares for any length of time to make up shortfall. Tsl are winding down operations. I would like someone from the board of tsl to clarify these two issues. History and state of company doesn’t suggest anything positive in this regard . I would be more than happy to be wrong and if I am why has share price plummeted . The share price explains it all. If people thought it was good news they wouldn’t be selling.
hi Rosy895, ...and what are you doing with your shares ?
Why not just answer Rosy’s question,Surprised?
Hi Redye , I see you stated you had sold out at 58p, time will tell us all and good luck.... I stand to be corrected but I dont think Rosy has asked a question...... I think you may mean it the other way around as I posted below - ''hi Rosy895....and what are you doing with your shares ?''......no answer yet as you state :-)
Hi Redeye, I think you'll find Julie asks a member of the board to answer her question. So I just assume Surprised isn't a member of TSL's Board?
The disparity of peoples' expectation "valuation of £125m" and reality (of the market) is of course the answer to her question. It doesn't need a member of TSL's Board to answer that. *All* BNPL listed companies have suffered a drop in sentiment - and price. This isn't just a drop in TSL, pro rata it is moving with the market. But... demand for BNPL continues to grow and I see it as having a bright future. People have got emotional about TSL (evidenced here by disappointment and anger on this message board) and sold up - ignoring the bright fundamentals and valuation disparity that I, and others, have recognised (TSL is way to buy SQ at a 30%+ discount to current market price)
Secondly I agree with Julie that TSL will not hold SQ long term. Either we will see a sale and return of cash to s/h or possibly some sort of transfer of those shares pro rata to shareholders (I see rounding as being problematic to doing this?). But the wind down will take 2 years as we are continuing to earn profits on the wind down...... the attractive buy price based on the fundamentals is the key point here.
GLA and a happy new year to fellow holders who, literally, think smart.
That's what has been bugging me. The valuation of 125, as per current market values becomes 82 or thereabouts. The current market valuation of 56 is a deep discount to NAV. There are now some risks in recent posts which folk have kindly posted. So becomes a judgement call on whether the risks outweigh the discount.
My take on it for what it's worth: folk are upset that TSL are not getting 125 in cash, they are getting the 82 in Afterpay shares. But if one thought the current sell off in BNPL is overdone then it makes sense to take the shares - particularly if you thought the BNPL market is going to grow (pretty strong growth to date from what I can tell). So thinly traded stock like TSL - some will have sold as they cannot bear the 'pain' of losing anymore money. When all the 'upset' folk with holdings have sold out then seems reasonable to expect price to go back up. Course the other view is the board are a bunch of crooks and want to run off with all the loot into the sunset - but what's that opinion based on - I cannot see any facts that suggest that. I think it was interesting the MMs narrowed the spread recently ie suggesting the bears are probably about done. Anyway time will tell, but when there's blood in the streets and all that ... tends to pay off if you can handle it. So personally I am going to hold and see what happens. If the SP goes below 45p and shows continued weakness that would make no sense both fundamentally (based on info I have now) and also technically. At that point I'd need to reconsider.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1474143028604542982
Research points and an in depth view of Square, that provide an insight for all TSL holders...
https://mtcapital.substack.com/p/square-inc-sq
''....Cash App Pay will allow consumers to pay with their Cash App accounts at participating Square Sellers. Though reliant on the extent to which consumers are willing to forego their credit cards, debit cards etc. to use the cash app ecosystem instead, this poses a very interesting opportunity for Square. When combined with the Afterpay efforts, this proposition is only further strengthened...
...Square’s undeniable value to sellers, the series of efforts they have embarked on in order to continuously spur growth in both of their main business segments and the attempts they are making to benefit from closed-loop payments. It is an exciting time to be part of everything Square is doing.
Square is at the top of the Fintech industry for a reason. With two strong business segments growing larger by the minute, there is a lot to like. In addition, with the Afterpay acquisition in mind, my opinion and conviction is only strengthened. ''
further insight to the Square -Afterpay acquisition
https://mtcapital.substack.com/p/square-sq-x-afterpay-asxapt
''..Afterpay acquisition has a twofold effect on Square as a whole. First, they will be able to leverage the strong Network Effects of Afterpay to gorilla glue their two business segments together. Second, they will be able to expedite International Expansion while also increasing the distance between competitors, both within the BNPL space and beyond within the US.
9.0 Conclusion
In summary, Square is a behemoth of a business that has only been made stronger with the addition of Afterpay into its ecosystem. With a Seller-focused segment that has yet to experience serious competition, Cash App bolstering strong customer adoption and sticky associated use-cases (P2P money transfer, investing and spending) and Afterpay cementing Square as a bank of the future with its exposure to a fast-moving payment method that is taking the world by storm, it is quite easy to be a Square shareholder.
https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=SQ
The 32 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Square/Block Inc have a median target of 300.00, with a high estimate of 360.00 and a low estimate of 172.00. The median estimate represents a +85.76% increase
The current consensus among 38 polled investment analysts is to Buy stock in Square/Block Inc.
Hi Patrm, different views are what makes a market ....and hopefully the details provided below suggest there is possibly a lot more to the Square/Block deal ....good luck wherever you invest next and I'm sure you'll watch TSL with interest over coming months
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1478336204353556494
added further to holding at 54.75p
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1478816834732318722
currently at a 25% -30% discount to asset value. If consensus is with 30+ analysts who forecast a median view of 85%+ growth in next 12 months for the Square/Block deal, the risk is to the upside from current price
Im still holding here, but also considering acquiring some Block shares after my research. Crazy cheap ATM.
Average consensus $287 in 12 months.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/SQ/research-ratings
part of an article on TSL published last night
''...it is preferable to do a deal on the Clearpay minority now, while Think Smart retains some influence over proceedings. This way he derisks the asset by locking in the value of the Clearpay stake in return for listed shares in a $72bn market cap company (ca $90bn when the Afterpay acquisition completes). Block is also a much more diversified payments business compared to Afterpay’s BNPL focus.
...with the investment in future being liquid Block shares rather than the illiquid Clearpay minority holding. Montarello is bullish on Block long-term but we suspect he will be pragmatic in realising value ...''
Value per share (107m shares in issue) = 72.6p
Current Think Smart price = 54p
...the discount to fair value has widened, with Think Smart now trading at ca 25% discount to its asset value (which we can now measure accurately). This looks attractive - assuming your view on Block is reasonably positive. Think of it like an investment trust: if Block shares start to recover then there is the prospect of a performance boost from the discount narrowing.''
Dave Thornton from' growthcompany' provided a write up on TSL last evening, confirming the view that TSL trades currently ata 25 percent discount to assest value and if Block rallies as most analysts expect over coming months TSL clealry goes with it , Block trading at lows currently ahead of the deal and average forecasts from majority of analysts is for 85 percent plus growth over next 12 months...
www.growthcompany.co.uk