The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
garbage deal for holders, still have mine from when they moved from aus - and they tried to take those cheaply. assumed this would be taken out, haven't gone thro8gh the hassle of registering them. last thing i need is more square shares, having a few through apt in the asx. looking to dump both, BNPL on the nose.
For me Thinksmart was solely a punt on the sale of the 10% Clearpay-share, not on Block's future prospects. I thought the sale was a very disappointing so it's time to exit. One positive thing is that I can safely cancel my IC subscription and save the reading time and a few quid. Don't misunderstand, I'm not criticising IC for ramping Thinksmart, they are free to write what they want?but I criticise myself for taking any notice of what they write so deceptively eloquent and for buying their arguments. Good luck all!
indeed, nothing illiquid abiut TSL, particularly today and the fact that the mm's will take all sells down here may give a clue to what awaits ahead.....everyone has their reasons for selling and often an initial over reaction provides opportunity before the dust settles and more info is available.....it's dissapointing a cash deal for twice the sum was agreed, however, the complexities and future market outlook for taking Block shares will become clearer in the next few weeks and with a minimun 25 percent plus upside to basic intrinsic value from current 67p the TSL drop below 80p seems nicely overdone....interesting few weeks coming up :-)
Terrible deal for shareholders. We were told by IC that a price of 160 was realistic not 60. I think 50p is now possible in these thin mkts. The TSl has been very bullish and even said recently they knew no reason for the recent fall in a recent rns. That led to a lot of buying in the 90p level. I do not know why they did that if they were going to accept this offer. I am sure they could have got more
>> Until that becomes clear this will trade at a discount like most other investment holding companies. As this is fairly illiquid the discount could be large.
I don't agree Battersea. If the vote goes in favour, it will hold cash and a publicly traded NASDAQ share. It has a clear path to winding up. What's at all illiquid about any of that!!
My next thought is why did Block drop from $260 per share to $167?
Quarterly update November 2021: Square reported sales of $3.84 billion for the period ended 9/30/21 which is a 26.73% increase YOY. Underperformed analyst consensus was $4.39 billion
Baptista think their forecast revenue 2021 > 2022 > 2023 expected to grow 10% YOY and PBT $213m (2021) to $350m (2022) and $382 (2023). NICE!
Block are heavily involved with Bitcoin and BNPL is actually only part of their strategy; there are various other FinTech apps they are launching in 2022 and 2023 too.
Sounds a pretty positive story to be fair.
I bought in on the St valuation which he said “the risk to valuation is to the upside’ when they were 90p. Another case of him being way to optimistic.
But the assumption that this will be wound up is just that. Until that becomes clear this will trade at a discount like most other investment holding companies. As this is fairly illiquid the discount could be large.
One other thought: I'm assuming TSL gets wound up and the cash returned to shareholders (It's not clear from the RNS whether that's their intention). Assuming we are talking about £6m of cash then that equates to 6m/106.59 = 5.6p per share. If nothing else then that means today's price of 72p is an interesting arbitrage to earn about 8% for holding TSL for a couple of months. If it's £7m then that rises to 6.5p
And this will trade at a discount to the shares of Block…….will it settle at 50p?
So TSL has 106.59m shares in issue. We stand to convert to 618750 Block shares. That's 0.0058 Block shares per TSL share.
At current prices that's worth 0.0058 * $167.06 = 96.9c which equates at 1.33 to £0.729 pence.
If you believe that Block has a bright future and will return to its recent $260 levels then by my calculations a TSL share will in the future be worth 99p.
Given that many will have a buy price well above that (and nearly all above 73p) then it's a poor outcome for us shareholders imo.
I also think this is one of the times that "skin in the game" is a negative since it will need 85% of remaining shareholders to vote against the deal for it to not go ahead. (BOD hold 41% of shares)
GLA and (not many) happy returns from the BOD
What will be the purpose and strategy of ThinkSmart in the future apart from eventually owning some shares in Block? To just watch some shares they will hardly need the the current full top management group on its payroll or a full board of directors?
Still though I just don't understand how tks management thinks a reduction of value from 125m to 72m is a strong outcome
UBS analyst Rayna Kumar is bullish on SQ stock. "Despite recent share pressure, Block remains our top 2022 pick given its potential to disrupt the Payments space through its transformational acquisition of Afterpay by
enhancing its positioning as a two-sided merchant and consumer payments network,"
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/94bf6f4c-618f-3908-a7ac-b9df9adfd02c/is-square-stock-a-buy-amid.html
imo give it a few weeks, once deal agreed and the price is locked in it is likley the Square shorts will be closed allowing the downward pressure on their sp to be lifted and with xmas trading globally and an agreed deal I expect an uplift in their (Square/Bloc) value January/February and going forward, clearly adding increased value in TSL ;-)
Well at least now we know why it dipped last week. Seems like someone was in the know.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1472837895757172740
struck early deal with AP for £78m for a stake in Block shares, equates to current mcap & the journey continues with Squares new Block holding in the BNPL sector.
That seems a disappointing RNS.
Selling I guess. Admit I would like to add in the low 70's. Might get it next week in think mkts.
Anyone know what the 106p trade of 145,000 shares means. It is timed post market close.
got mine ok, typically brokers often have 10 days to process, although many do it much faster ...
Has anyone received their capital return and dividend yet? No sign with DeGiro after 4 days.
Hi. I wonder if the share price may have been affected by negative comments in programmes like Panorama about Buy now, Py later arrangements? The call for legislation to control such payment schemes seems to be voiced periodically.
yes peter - but why would I?
I would put the selling down to Afterpay's recent SP decline and the general market sentiment. There is also a regulatory delay with the Bank of Spain, however, analysts suggest this poses minimal risk to the transaction closing. "We continue to believe the risks of the transaction closing are minimal," RBC Capital Markets analyst Chami Ratnapala said in a brief client note. In addition to this, Simon Thompson, a big advocate of Thinksmart is away on annual leave and hasn't published any recent updates.
The same thing happened last week, albeit a much larger drop which led Thinksmart to publish an RNS communicating that there was no reason for the drop. In my eyes, this is a top-up opportunity, which I have taken advantage of.
It seems this cycle of selling off and popping up will continue until we get an update regarding Clearpay's recent performance (which I expect to be good). Irrespective of that the current value sits around 130-150p+ (depending on which analyst you listen to) and the longer Thinksmart hold their Clearpay stake this value grows (agreed upon by most analysts).
With a business that is growing quickly (and benefits from Omicron/potential covid restrictions in retail), a high likelihood of potential buyout news in the next few months, and a discounted share price, this for me is a no-brainer.
I have every faith in the Block/Square acquisition of Afterpay completing. It just makes so much sense. They have put an attractive offer forward, both sets of shareholders want the acquisition to go ahead, both parties' business models strive under the acquisition (Thinksmart/Clearpay benefiting too), both parties are facing harsh competition from the likes of Paypal, Jack Dorsey has stepped down as Twitter CEO to focus on Block/Square etc.
Even if the acquisition failed the current value of Clearpay remains the same and Thinksmart has their call/put arrangement exercisable in 2023/2024. With BNPL still growing this is a WIN/WIN in my eyes.
As always stick to your own plan and do your own research.