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Jonhas,
I have no clue what Tremor/Nexxen's 3Q revenues or its 4Q outlook is going to look like.
Crystal balls are cheap. We will all have the real numbers come Wednesday and we can talk again then. Atb meanwhile.
Quite coincidentally, I just looking at Future and came across the piece below which mirrors my own previous post and even uses the buzzword of "stabilized" again:
"Since then, like a lot of companies, Future’s price has fallen sharply to just 843p due to various macro environmental factors such as falling ad spend and weak consumer confidence, which has reduced e-commerce volumes. Further investor concerns have stemmed from declining online audience numbers for both FY22 and the first half.
H2 shows the worm is turning
But when the company issued an update on 29 September, Future said audience numbers in the second-half had stabilized and it had seen positive month-on-month momentum in the final quarter."
Hi Radium,
Whilst in essence you are of course correct when you write: "it's clear that ad spend is subdued and it is being targeted to where it can produce a quick return rather than building Brands."
The point I was making in my post is that the above left in isolation is a little backwards looking. For trmr and many of the others serious issues in the macro environment started late last year and deepened in Q1 of this year. Although there are still issues and no-one is very confident, my reading is that for most, things have improved since July and some confidence has returned. Yes, SFOR and some others are still suffering but SFOR although in digital advertising; its not pure ad-tec. Most Q3s mentioned "stabilization of conditions" which seems to be the new buzzword for improvement or the returning to more normal conditions.
Anyhow do you have a view on TRMR's Q3 results, I'd be interested in comparing? I was off on Q1, got Q2 pretty much spot on, and now await Q3.
Nexxen, slowly but surely building the Brand. Iit's come a long way from the days when it was called blinkx.
One day, Mr Market is going to wake up to that.
https://www.nexxen.com/news
https://www.nexxen.com/partner-spotlight-plex
https://digiday.com/sponsored/qa-how-brands-and-retailers-are-using-commerce-media-and-data-for-more-accurate-campaigns/
https://www.nexxen.com/broadcasters-publishers
Many questions have been asked about when Nexxen might start to monetise the VIDAA data. This video interview with Nexxen’s Steve Broadhead, from late August, throws some light on this subject and the complications that come with ACR and its subsequent use. It looks like Nexxen is planning to release something (for testing?) around the end of this year or early 2024.
Related video timelines at around 3.20 mins, 4.08 mins and 13.03 mins.
https://www.exchangewire.com/voxpops/nexxens-steve-broadhead-on-the-opportunities-of-ctv/
Radium,
Not binary. I've loaded up over the past few months to take some off the table after earnings (good or bad) in order to offset realized gains taken in other stocks. I don't know how it works over there, but it's a tax thing here. I am totally cognizant of my tax situation. Too much so, that I often let the tax tail wag this dog.
Other than that, as per usual, you and I are in the same boat regarding the outlook for our potential. At current stock price, this company is on sale. Big time, in my not so humble opinion. That doesn't mean it can't get cheaper, but I am betting it won't.
Tricky re your….So, the incentive is to sell before the expected poor results.
Well, I for one, have no incentive to sell.
As I said, like everyone else, I have no clue what Tremor/Nexxen's 3Q revenues or its 4Q outlook is going to look like but it is clear that the macro conditions out there are tough right now and if they do meet, or beat, even their reduced 3Q and end of year targets then I will feel much relieved with that.
I’ve also stated here several times that it’s my view that with the integrations complete, Tremor/Nexxen now has a very attractive, state of the art, full stack end to end platform which, and crucially, if they can grow the DSP side and attract a meaningful number of broadcasters, enterprises and agencies on-board, as per Druker’s declared aim (SSP Cross-Platform planner tool now available and CPP tool for the DSP should now be out of beta by this time, then, it’s difficult not to conclude that there is some serious business potential here for Nexxen. I've also said that, because of the prevailing macro headwinds, that a clearer picture of Nexxen's success or failure will unfold during 2024 and short of an unforeseen event and in spite of past disappointments, I’m likely to remain invested here through fiscal 2024.
Just now, there are a lot of investors trapped in here with options that are binary. Sell and consolidate a loss or hold and hope this one comes good. As I see it, Nexxen has some serious potential and its balance sheet is strong enough to see us through this hiatus during fiscal 24.
So, the incentive is to sell before the expected poor results, with announcement of the anticipated buyback. No need to rush back in either, by the sound of it, as the economy is the 'dog in the manger' for some time to come!
It's being so cheerful that keeps me going!
Jonhas, it's clear that ad spend is subdued and it is being targeted to where it can produce a quick return rather than building Brands.
e.g. how many times has S4's Sorrell had to trim his outlook?
extract...S4 Capital shares plummeted last Thursday as the group trimmed its outlook and revealed reported billings fell by 7 per cent. Sir Martin Sorrell, executive chairman of S4 Capital, described third quarter trading as 'difficult', reflecting 'global macroeconomic conditions.
A deteriorating economic environment has seen companies around the world cut back on marketing spend in 2023, hitting the bottom line of S4 and rival WPP, as well as media companies and broadcasters like ITV.
He added that S4 had suffered ‘extended sales cycles' and 'client caution to commit' particularly for larger projects and 'to some extent' tech sector clients.
Ad tech cannot isolate itself from the macro. Ofer Druker noted the same ‘extended sales cycles' and 'client caution to commit' particularly for larger projects, during Tremor/Nexxen's last cc and so I find it difficult not to be anxious as we approach 3Q23 earnings on the 22nd, and indeed the next two quarters beyond that, particularly 1Q24, as that is traditionally ad tech's softest and weakest quarter.
We are where we are but fortune could have offered us a more favorable time to have just completed a restructuring of the business.
Like everyone else, I have no clue what Tremor/Nexxen's 3Q revenues or its 4Q outlook is going to look like but, under the current macro conditions, I will be highly relieved if their figures come in as they predicted them on the last earnings call. If not we are going to need that buyback.
Hi Radium, I'm a little intrigued by your last post. Much like yourself, I have been closely reviewing Q3 ad-tech results and had formed the overall opinion that most were more positive about outlook than in previous quarters. Most have mentioned thru the year, the weakness at the end of last year and at the beginning of this one, and again most had seen further stabilization from July which further consolidated during Q3. From memory, most if not all described this picture to varying degrees.
TTD was somewhat new in describing the early October weakness but then went on to describe it being for two weeks before it re-stabilized. The TTD SP dip is I believe a mixture of factors:
-the SP is priced to perfection some would say so any deviance is punished, SP is still up 32% in a year;
-the strong Q4 growth last year made this year's comparable challenging;
From my analysis DSP has tracked TRMR the most closely quarter on quarter over the past 18 months and more so than any other ad-tech stock. Its Q3 was promising and Q4 guidance again okay so fingers crossed for TRMR.
As you know, The Trade Desk sp took a right knock following their earnings call last night.
Jeff Green, Trade Desk’s CEO, said on the earnings call that “starting about the second week of October, we began to see some transitory cautiousness around certain advertisers.”
“We saw some reduction in brand spend in verticals such as automotive and consumer electronics, for instance, specifically around cell phones and media and entertainment,” Green said. “Some of these industries have been recently impacted by strikes, such as the U.S. auto industry.”
While most independent ad-tech companies have struggled to compete with Google’s systems, Trade Desk has built a business, valued at $38 billion prior to its earnings report, largely by helping companies shift ad budgets from traditional television to the connected TV market.
Green said that spend “stabilized” in the first week in November, and “we’re very confident that we will continue to outpace our industry.”
He added that the company’s “business is largely based on the world’s largest brands,” which means “if there is a little caution due to macro uncertainty facing everyone, we, of course, won’t be immune from that in the short term.”
Trade Desk said third-quarter sales jumped 25% from $493 million a year earlier. Net income increased to $39 million, or 8 cents a share, from $16 million, or 3 cents, a year earlier.
The stock fell to $53.49 in extended trading after closing on Thursday at $76.81. Prior to the after-hours move, the shares were up 71% for the year.
Meta, Snap and Pinterest all noted a softening of the digital advertising market in their latest earnings reports due in part to the Israel-Hamas war.
Susan Li, Meta’s chief financial officer, said the company widened its guidance because of unpredictability surrounding the Middle East Crisis, while Snap said it would not provide official guidance “due to the unpredictable nature of war.”
It doesn't bode well for me. My senses guide me to ask the question...why would Tremor prepare for another buyback if the outlook was good. That is mutually exclusive.
But we knew this already.
https://tremorinternationalltd.gcs-web.com/node/12991/html
Interesting.
I doubt it would be NYSE, but a full NASDAQ listing, should it happen.
Unless we execute, it would only be re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Https://news.sky.com/story/adtech-group-tremor-triggers-fresh-city-shockwave-with-us-move-12998647
" Apparently they are unhappy about what they consider to be a lowly share price."
Aren't we all?
Sorry if this is stale news, but I've just seen the Sky News City Editor Mark Kleinman - usually a reliable source - noting a rumour that TRMR management have been in discussions with major shareholders about decamping to the NYSE. Apparently they are unhappy about what they consider to be a lowly share price.
Tricky,
We're being flooded, and we've no idea who is coming into our country. There is NOTHING good about what's going on with illegal immigration into the USA. We have a robust legal immigration policy, allowing for more than 1 million legal immigrants per year. Our laws are not being followed by the Idiot in Chief residing in the White House. These are illegal, not legal immigrants of which I speak.
Doggy,
I think you have to weigh in the balance whether immigration is a net benefit (to public finances) or otherwise.
As for what goes on in the corridors of power in this country, it may amuse you to watch (somewhat dated) episodes of 'Yes Minister', where 'Civil Servants' (in Whitehall) are portrayed as subverting/thwarting the Ministers from carrying out their business as M.P.'s representing their country...
Hi Dog All good here thanks, getting frustrated, but we’ve waited this long, might as well see it out. I trust you and yours are all well and the same goes for all the long term holders, Regards Curly.
Hey Curly,
How've you been?
Yeah, we're giving them mobile phones, medical, hotel rooms, and many other benefits not given our veterans in need of help. Amazing.
3Q 2023 conference call before the US markets open (same time as TRMR's reports, 12:30hr GMT).
Hi dog We in the UK are just as dumb, in the past two years, we have allowed more illegals into the UK (mainly single young men of fighting age) than the current size of the British army. They throw their papers away, so cannot be easily traced. We don’t have a clue who they are, but we put them up in hotels (yes effing hotels) and give them spending money. You couldn’t make it up. Rant over. Regards Curly. Sorry for the off TRMR.
BTW: OK, Russia is not "nothing", but they proved to be a bit of a paper tiger with their performance in Ukraine. They have more than a few nukes, which I have not failed to forget.
About the rest of what I said, if anyone doubts me, please challenge me. I will connect the dots (given my time constraints).
Tricky,
Russia is nothing without China. China is a massive problem without Russia.
None of this would have happened without Biden's (Obama's third term) inept administration, their incredibly stupid energy policies, massive government spending on krap nobody wants, massive regulatory policies, and naive foreign policy of appeasement (can we spell Neville Chamberlain?). At the top of that list, along with what's going on in Ukraine, is what Iran is up to all over the Middle East. ALL OF IT can be laid at the feet of US leadership, or lack thereof.
The USA is going to be hit with another 9/11 type terror attack due to what these fools have allowed to happen on the USA's southern border. It is incredible. Actually, they have not only allowed it, they've encouraged it. Our borders are WIDE OPEN, and the world knows it. Over 7 million that we know of are here illegally over the last 2.5 years. We do not know who they are, or where they are, but we know they are here. Some say it's closer to 10 million.
Doggy,
China (and Russia) are 'on the march' for sure.
Hopefully the support for Ukraine by the West will deter China from marching 'gung-ho' into Taiwan.