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At this point in time i think the bid is 6.5p. i am sure they are talking to the street, i.e. other bid share holders if they are interested in selling out. Things take time. Once they know who is or is not interested they will get a sense where to pitch the take over bid. Let's be honest SAG will not want to over pay equally they want to succeed in getting this done and wrapped up. They will be lots of possible scenarios of the final outcome but we just have to wait and see.
This really could go in so many directions. One thing will be certain our BOD will be nervous, everything hinges on H1 report now. An improvement on 2020 H2 and I think it's unlikely SAG will be able to force this through. A worse performance compared with H2 2020, then I expect TPG to be taken over with only a slight improvement on 6.5p with possibly as already suggested some equity thrown in.
Interesting times but it just highlights the value here is obvious and we the shareholders that have held for years will never see that value because PC was happy to throw out poor results year after year without addressing the problems behind them. TPG's costs have just been far too high. This stock always had potential and it's a shame because with better management it could have quite easily been a £100m market cap organisation which would make the current SP 14 - 15p we look likely to get less than half that and SAG will reap the rewards because they will do what previous management never seemed interested in doing, review the business and make the necessary changes to make profits.
Depending on SAG's relationship with Cannacord, they will buy them out next week or if not.
Otherwise I see SAG making a take over offer for TPG, especially as the directors didn't want engage with them. They will offer some cash and new equity in SAG. Not sure on the rules and what percentage would be required, i guess 75% of votes in favor for it to become effective.
yes - link below clarifies - 6.5p
https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/7-107-6806?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)
Hi fatoomch after reading it again several times it could well be
highest price paid in the 12 months (by the offeror)before the offer was announced which would make more sense.
Anyway we will soon find out
HI OT
fwiw - I think we'll see 6.5p on Monday morning
Cannacord hold 11.71%
SAG hold 17.9%
That would be 29.61 % by my reckoning
My interpretation of the takeover rules matches yours
between 10 and 30% - offer can be no lower than the highest price paid by the bidder
over 30% - offer can be no lower than the highest market price in the 12 months prior to the bid. That is 7.5p
I can't see SAG going above 30% and being nailed for an extra £5.4m
I did misread it!
Got CGWL mixed up with CGWM.
My mistake.
Having looked back over the RNS list, SAG's initial purchase was from the open market.
Hi Fatoomch
I'm sure SAG have their playbook down pat.
I thought I'd seen a RNS declaration from Cannacord saying they only had 17k share's in tpg?
Do you know how many they hold, I might have misread it
I thought perhaps SAG's initial purchase may have come from them?
Interesting theory fatoomch but why would Cannacord sell at say 6.5p when they know that wll take them near to 30% at which time SAG will have to pay 7.5P (sept 20) or 7.3p from Jan 21 high. Would it not be better to get pi,s to start selling in the 6p range?
Radius - I posted the below on another board. I think SAG have all their ducks lined up to takeover TPG - whether there be the need for cash and/or cash and shares. They haven't just decided on a whim.
Value of Ruffer holding in SAG has increased from around £8m to £18m in the 2 years since SAG bought FST.
Value of Cannacord holding in SAG has increased from £12m to £29m in same 2 year period.
Imo - SAG have spoken with Ruffer and convinced them that by selling their TPG shares at 6.5p, SAG can further increase shareholder value for Ruffer as existing holders of SAG – as they have demonstrated with FST
My guess is that we’ll see an RNS notifying that Cannacord have also sold their TPG stake to SAG– having had the same conversation with the BOD of SAG. I’m guessing that will be at 6.5p. SAG will then be sat at 29.6%. Could be wrong, but think SAG are showing how to finesse a takeover – having had their ducks lined up before they played their first card.
Fair point Ot
SAG also doesn't have the financial firepower for a full buyout, unless say, they team up with someone who's after Maritime TPG.
Should be interesting on Monday
Clock's ticking!
No problem Radius that is how i read it however could well be a few twists and turns to come really dont think it is in SAGs interest to be too hostile as TPG is very people reliant due to nature of the company.
Sorry oldtramp, I'll just put Ot from now on, apologies.
Radius - it does seem to read that way.
Hi oldtimer
How I'm reading it is that if, SG kept it below 30% they could offer ATM 6.5p for the rest (the highest paid so far)but if they went over 30% they would have to offer 7.5p ( the highest paid in the last 12mths)
Is that how you read it.
Just trying to see if I'm interpreting it correctly
Cheers
R
Sorry, fat fingers again!
12 months 6.5p, or the highest price paid by anyone on the open market 7.5p (17th September 2020)
Cheers R
Morning oldtramp
Does that mean highest price paid by, in this case SG over the last
This might be of use
The following is a brief summary of some of the most important Rules:
When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained).
When interests in shares carrying 10% or more of the voting rights of a class have been acquired by an offeror (i.e. a bidder) in the offer period and the previous 12 months, the offer must include a cash alternative for all shareholders of that class at the highest price paid by the offeror in that period. Further, if an offeror acquires for cash any interest in shares during the offer period, a cash alternative must be made available at that price at least.
If the offeror acquires an interest in shares in an offeree company (i.e. a target) at a price higher than the value of the offer, the offer must be increased accordingly.
The offeree company must appoint a competent independent adviser whose advice on the financial terms of the offer must be made known to all the shareholders, together with the opinion of the board.
Favourable deals for selected shareholders are banned.
All shareholders must be given the same information.
Those issuing takeover circulars must include statements taking responsibility for the contents.
Profit forecasts, quantified financial benefits statements and asset valuations must be made to specified standards and must be reported on by professional advisers.
Misleading, inaccurate or unsubstantiated statements made in documents or to the media must be publicly corrected immediately.
Actions during the course of an offer by the offeree company which might frustrate the offer are generally prohibited unless shareholders approve these plans.
Stringent requirements are laid down for the disclosure of dealings in relevant securities during an offer.
Employees of both the offeror and the offeree company and the trustees of the offeree company’s pension scheme must be informed about an offer. In addition, the offeree company’s employee representatives and pension scheme trustees have the right to have a separate opinion on the effects of the offer on employment appended to the offeree board’s circular or published on a website.
Hi Sheldster
Yes that's correct.
If you scroll down through the RNS near the bottom there is an explanation of the takeover code declaration requirements.
Hope that helps
R
Hi ,
Does the 8.3 form state the current holdings of the stock in question I.e HHL hold circa 91m 12% and CGWL hold 17k 0.0022% ? Apologies if this has been answered previously.
Hi Radius. Very succinctly put. Your post seems to cover most of the situation - bearing in mind we know not a lot! Fortunately I'm breaking even so am a little ambivalent. I've been here since Corac in September 2013 - always look to the long-term!!!
SG may well just sit on their 17/18% , let the month run out without making an offer, then top up to sub 30% if the price drifts down over the next 6months.
If the TPG SP improves over that period,well their in the money, if not they can put the pressure on the ii to jump onboard with them & SG get their wish of control without emptying their coffers.
As you say Old-timer, interesting times.
So many different scenarios, which will it be?
Ps, if another interested party/parties pitch in, well!
Good luck to all LTH's
Interesting times Stokey have a good weekend