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Yes, we need to get back on the work horse. That is a certainty. Old and sick need to be careful, even stay home till summer
oiluser
not completely against it just how we have done it is does not make sense. The virus than widely spread and now we can see the casualties. Like you said we more than likely not going to find the vaccine against this virus for long time.
Time to get back to normal and hope for the heard immunity otherwise we done.
That's take a long time to find a vaccine
The aim of lockdown was to buy time, we need badly to reopen economy. Your post looked like you were against lockdowns. If my assumption was wrong sorry.
I'm in 2 minds on it all, but it will take a long time to find a virus. I reckon we need to move out of lockdown in coordinated manner when the numbers in ICU drop and the new cases drop. But it will revive the virus, and we will have to live with it for some time to come. Vaccine hasn't been found for SARs in 17 years, not sure if they were looking for one. Its was less virulent but more deadly. Treatment is the key here.
oiluser
Yes we could say that. The thing is $ is backed by shale if oil falls than US economy has finished for decades. US knows that I know that and assume many on this board including you know that.
Question we ave to ask.
Should we take the risk slowly opening the world economy or keep it locked until scientist find the vaccine. Could be months could be years away.
Not to disrespect anyone but do we really want to live lock down for rest of the year?
Can we afford to live like this the rest of the year. I think people grossly underestimate the economic effect of this lockdown.
Like I said in long term this will cause lot more death than covid19.
Do you have a link?
No sales = no revenue...
I'm not short, I'm in at 19p.
Buying more on opportunity for sure.
US production will drop by 4mbod this year, by next week it will be almost 1mbod already. It is anticipated that the 4mbod could occur by end of may according to some but my guess is more slow drop. Theres going to be some serious carnage amongst shale because their dammed if the do and dammed if they dont. They have 40 billion due in debt repayment this year, last year they struggled with 15billion, and were issuing shale bonds. Oil was mid 50,s average. You could say that Corona virus done shale in.
I even don't know how it works with hedged oil for Tullow? If they can't sell their oil at all, do they still get the price that is hedged? Anybody?
I assume they get paid no matter what, right? Anybody?
No, no short. I and Shpunken said this some time ago, regarding the upcoming months.
"At the same time, oil storage tanks across the world are filling up, sparking fears that we will soon reach capacity. When this happens, current prices will seem high by comparison. There is also a looming shortage of tankers as traders charter VLCCs to store crude offshore. The cherry on top of this oil horror cake is the uncertainty about a global production cut deal. "
For these months it will be (I can't see it any other way) south for oil. But what it will do for Tullow (which is hedged): I have NO CLUE, whatsoever. :)
This is better than the alternative I assure you, we have orderly lockdown or disorderly lockdown. It was a no brainer.
Ok we get it you short but I cannot see after the deal has done this will retrace 50%. I know you hoping for but US will do whatever it takes to protect price of oil. Otherwise they will fall into deep recession with the world with it.
This is nothing like 2008. We have a simultaneous shutdown of almost everything. 2008 was prompted by a shutdown of credit so balanced decisions could still be made. Hardly anyone went bust and not too many people lost their jobs.
Today the Government shut down supply which immediately led to a shutdown of demand. The banking industry will once again be in crisis as companies fold. Banks will protect their cash and reduce lending and therefore profits.
Governments will have to be the lender of last resort but even their credibility will be questioned this time around. The damage to the UK ( world ) economy will be immeasurable.
I think you may be missing something zorro
I think the numbers might be much much higher if we hadn't made a big deal of it
Instead of 1.5million cases we would now have 15 million or 150 million, which would present 750k to 7.5million dead in the time frame. There would be a complete break down of health system, bodies lying in the streets and I'm sure we would have serious law and order issues
But fk it, what's a couple of sickies or oldies
Agree.
I agree. Only way is down but will be sub 20p for a short time. When they agree further reduction then we can go up. They don't have an option cos if they don't agree further reduction they will loose more so common sense will prevail.
For the moment, there is no way to go for oil prices these months... than South.
"In a separate report, Goldman Sachs said that even if OPEC+ manages to cobble together 10 mb/d of cuts, another 4 mb/d of “cuts” from market-induced shut-ins are likely. As a result, while there could be a short price rally from the announcement from OPEC+, “this support will soon give way to lower prices with downside risk to our near-term WTI $20/bbl forecast,” Goldman said. “Ultimately, the size of the demand shock is ***simply too large*** for a coordinated supply cut, setting the stage for a severe rebalancing.”
Thank you.
Like I said sooner the better. So far 95 873 death world wide!!!!! It is bloody joke, if we carry on the least worry of ours how tullow will do but what are we going to eat.
Panic created by media and people sucked it up. In my opinion China planned this well. They knew how the westenr world will react and they were right.
"The hit to demand will “last longer” than previously expected, as more countries impose lockdown orders while “the spread of the virus will resist restrictions more than we first expected,” the firm said. Rystad sees a demand hit of around 20 mb/d in May and more than 15 mb/d in *June*. Demand growth remains negative for the duration of 2020."
https://www.rystadenergy.com/globalassets/pdfs/rystad-energy_covid-19-report_7-april_2020_final-public-version.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top
You like to refer to this website when is well known to fund by Green piece. Please for the balance could you find some more reliable source. thank you.
Happy Easter,
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Could-Fall-Back-To-20.html
"Oil demand is set to plunge by as much as **27 million barrels** per day (mb/d) in April, a decline larger than anything that has occurred in the history of oil."
In the end it will be all good, but April, May... June?