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MM - you seem awfully keen to end this conversation. Your want us to believe Tlou can generate power for export yet Minister said they were given a licence for ‘local power generation’.
BERA could have been in existence for 40 years for all the good they ever did. Yes they have brought in new people at the top recently - give them time to get functioning. Same as BPC new folks; lots of new folks all across Govt as you said in post yday.
You keep trying to sell the point that all things relevant to Tlou and SAPP and exporting power has been in place for these past few years. They were not; they are not there yet now; there is work still to be done until these things change. And my best bet is Tlou (and Sekaname) will need to generate power (selling it to BPC) in consistent and decent quantity Before BPC, Ministry, Govt allow any IPP operating within Botswana will be allowed to use the Botswana network for selling /exporting power.
But see I know you know that - but you don’t dare admit to since to do so would devalue your efforts of the past couple of years here.
My sense is OB has got lots more left in the tank to explain to us how the Botswana power market really works. And I am delighted he is here posting - he has said he likes Tlou as a stock, which means he likes the electricity generation potential here - try to show some respect to people who actually know technical detail. We will all benefit - even you.
Share price of 2.7 pence. Your efforts have been pretty useless and the retail punters really don’t matter here. Truth generally always outs in the end....
I think this nails the 'discussion' over whether Tlou will be able to generate for export.
Minister Moagi of the MMGE, from the 29th March 2021:
On other issues, Mr Moagi said the ministry (MMGE) strived towards sustainable and secure energy supplies, by creating an enabling regulatory environment for stimulating private sector participation in local power generation, especially for renewable and cleaner energy sources.
He said that Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA) has licensed Botho Park at the Botho University Campus, Feune being Airport junction Mall, Bank of Botswana, Okavango Diamond Trading Company, Primetime Property Holdings at Sebele Mall, Thobo Energy at Francistown, and Diamond Trading Company Botswana (DTCB) for Solar Photovoltaic Plants producing over 100Kva.
Mr Moagi highlighted that Tlou Energy was also issued with an IPP license for local power generation under the government's Coal Bed Methane (CBM) power generation programme.
IN ADDITION TO DRIVING TOWARDS THE GOAL FOR SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN LOCAL POWER GENERATION THROUGH INCREASED PARTICIPATION OF INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS (IPPS), MR MOAGI UNDERLINED THAT THE AUTHORITY CONTINUED TO FACILITATE PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN POWER GENERATION FOR EXPORTS.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202103300643.html
As I understood it BERA will be the ones who ultimately sanction cross-border selling into the SAPP. Like much of the recent talk of solar and hydrogen potential - it is an entirely possible, maybe even desired future outcome. Ultimately though it's still academic until we are actually a producer of electricty - beyond the 2Mw we currently have an interim PPA for. Let's focus on that for now.
BERA have only been up and running around 4 years and their mandate is:
'The Authority is responsible for providing an efficient energy regulatory framework for Electricity, Gas, Coal, Petroleum products, solar and all forms of renewable energy with the primary mandate of providing the economic regulation of the sectors.
Economic regulation will enable the private sector to play an active role in asset formation that will enable delivery of services that will be reliable, affordable and of good quality, not losing sight of the need to protect the environment.'
The SAPP market structure and operation is evolving all the time - increasing trading outside of the traditional bilateral agreements. If you want to see monthly traded volumes on the DAM, FPM and IDM you can look here.
http://www.sapp.co.zw/market-reports
SAPP participants conditions to trade are:
Having been licensed or given permission by the host country to undertake cross border trading
Acceptance as a Market Particpant by SAPP Executive Committee
Being party to a TSO connected to a SAPP Control Area and have arrangements for Balance Responsibility
Signing the DAM governance documents
Opening of the requisite accounts for trading purposes and having the requisite security for trading purposes
Have at least two trained Traders
An interesting paper for those that wish to understand the SAPP market - its structure, development, function and participant criteria etc.
http://www.scielo.org.za/pdf/jesa/v29n4/04.pdf
You can make up your own hypothisis
You wont be happy moagi, you'll be oblivious - there are homes full of happy oblivious people - it is my fear their doors are open to me. Somebody has to make sure Poppy is walked and fed.
MM has always had a platform to speak his mind, it is you who was banned!
MM - you are getting a chance to demonstrate knowledge and intelligence. We already know you are well versed in sarcasm, put downs, innuendo. Let’s see whether there is another deeper side to you, eh. Maybe go see what your technical people say on this, since so far you don’t seem to me to be all that familiar. But happy if you prove me wrong.
We are clearly doomed if there is no ready market!
Shortages everywhere in the southern region of Africa, Eskom in trouble and struggling to survive far less expand production, increasing demand expected for many years? Diesel power costing a fortune to replace Eskom's shortfall, dirty energy, and there is no ready market?
$30 per unit costs with diesel , TLOU hoping for more than $12 per unit - the ready market has been there for years!
So we are agreed then OldBalllie. When you posted the following yesterday morning you were being 'misleading' - or was it more than that?
The SAPP is not an exclusive club and, given time, Tlou can become a member.
Moving on....
Your post from Here is the "spot market" in Southern Africa. Except that only BPC can access the SAPP. We cannot - it is an exclusive club for the various national utilities to trade. Prices mostly vary from 2c/kWh to 12c/kWh.
http://www.sappmarket.com/
OB, We can agree you said this ....
"1st thing to know is that the SAPP consists of 12 member countries for whom their individual electricity-markets look very similiar. The markets are all heavily regulated and typically have only one buyer of electricity - this being the national utilities such as Eskom SA), BPC (Botswana), ZESCO (Zambia), etc. "
BPC, Botswana, is opening its doors to IPPS , in fact they invited them to the party - a party whose date is yet to be decided upon.
Your info on ZESCO (Zambia) is out of date! Take a look at the IPP on this image!
One day there will be one for TLOU as well as BPC.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BXOpqnzFvrQxfxId06_jmN8uzHxbJhGt/view?usp=sharing
MM, your post from Monday 17.05...
"With regards to Tlou selling to customers within Botswana itself, this is something of a moot point as the BPC is required to take all and any power produced in Botswana under the country's import substitution policy - replacing the very expensive and strategically dangerous reliance on Eskom imports. So there's the ready market."
We totally agree that Botswana's reliance on Eskom imports, is a dangerous thing. That is why I'm into this share.
I don't see the "ready market" you refer to though. The buyer / BPC is a monopoly that wants to protect its own bottom line and even though there may be an import substitution policy (I'm not familiar with it), I'd very much like to know what it says on price / tariff.
BPC went through a couple of auctions on solar PV with massive interest - some of it from the big European utilities who are out to buy market share in Africa. They price their tariffs for these bids on a breakeven basis.
I struggle to see how we convince a monopoly to buy power from us at a tariff that is higher than what they got from the various auctions.
Dunno... sounds like a very risky "ready market" to me.
MM, your post Monday 16.55. It is a good post. Thanks for sharing your views on the SAPP issue.
If I may borrow directly from your post and comment on the membership categories that is available...
7 Membership Categories
Applicants shall apply and be considered for one of the following categories:
a) National Power Utility
b) Operating Member
c) Market Participant
Now, if we were to find a home for Tlou amongst the 3 categories of membership that is available... (quoting directly from the document that you refer to)
a) National Power Utility?
Nah... I think we can agree Tlou does not fit into this box
b) Operating member?
From the SAPP document you quote:
3.9 “Operating Member” means a Member which:
a) operates a permanent generation facility of total capacity of at least 300 MW physically
connected to the SAPP Grid at a voltage level of at least 110 kV; and/or,
b) operates a transmission system of 110 kV and above which is physically connected to
the SAPP Grid at a voltage level of at least 110 kV; and,
c) has capability to provide ancillary services
Nah... this is for the big boys. Tlou does not do 300MW and it is not connected to the SAPP grid at a voltage level of 110kV+.
I.e. Tlou does not fit into this box.
c) Market Participant?
Again... from the SAPP document you quote:
3.7 Market Participant means a Member which:
a) operates or contracts generation capacity or a load of at least 5 MW that is physically
connected to the SAPP Grid at a minimum voltage of 110 kV; and
b) complies with respective national legislation on cross-border trading; and,
c) is not be tied to a single buyer contract; or, where such contract exists, must have
counter party consent to trade the contracted power on the market; and,
d) possess capability of balancing agreed schedules or must have a contract for balancing
agreed schedules with a SAPP operating member
Closer. But no banana. Tlou does not fit into this box either (grid connection at 66kV and a contract for balancing agreed schedules).
It would seem to me that Tlou does not fit into any box prescribed for SAPP membership. Or am I missing something?
I have just spent ages deleting my whole filter list , and with a few exceptions I couldn't remember why they were filtered or even which stock they posted on.
In the new mood of pc on here, well done MM on leading the way , I think Moagi needs to re-examine his point and take it one stage further.
i.e. "My point is - Tlou started talking about connecting to SAPP in 2017 and implied that they could connect to the grid then and sell power unrestricted. That was not the case then; it still isn’t the case now - although in time to come, given the reasonably recent changes in Govt and Ministry personnel, this market will open up (with profound changes to ie unbundling of BPC). "
What he needs to consider should change his conclusion into my conclusion using his own words above.
In 2017 , and in 2021 , TLOU are talking about power they do not have yet.
So they are also talking about the future, and the his disingenuity argument evaporates .
MM - i don’t see any BS in what OB posted, just as I don’t see any in yours actually. OB has stated the current state of the electricity market in Botswana (ie only 1 buyer, BPC) and membership of SAPP. You agree with him re BPC monopolistic position here but then you talk about how the market needs to change ahead (OB talked about how the market is now).
I don’t disagree that the local market needs to change; equally I believe that change is underway - but this is Botswana and this change will take time for sure. How much or how long until - I have no idea.
The point is structural change usually takes considerable time.
My point is - Tlou started talking about connecting to SAPP in 2017 and implied that they could connect to the grid then and sell power unrestricted. That was not the case then; it still isn’t the case now - although in time to come, given the reasonably recent changes in Govt and Ministry personnel, this market will open up (with profound changes to ie unbundling of BPC).
In other words Tlou were being disingenuous in what they were saying back then. This led many fairly naive punters to take the plunge here (stoked by BS from Tidd, Buzz, ... back in the day).
I was even impressed by the speed of your spirited defence to OBs comments - likewise I continue to read your posts and wonder what your true purpose might be....
I look forward to hearing OBs point of view on your comments.
Why did I not simply ask for assistance in putting down George and Mildred - would have saved me hours or days! I felt like the Lone Ranger until today, and now it's changed to the Magnificent Seven. Thank you guys (even if you weren't doing it for me), the hole in the wall gang have finally got their come, uppance!
Time to start my spring clean.
With regards to Tlou selling to customers within Botswana itself, this is something of a moot point as the BPC is required to take all and any power produced in Botswana under the country's import substitution policy - replacing the very expensive and strategically dangerous reliance on Eskom imports. So there's the ready market.
Regardless of that, investors maybe interested in this exchange;
Siwawa further challenged BPC to take advantage of existing opportunities in the South African Power Pool (SAPP) by generating power for export.
For his part, Gabaake Gabaake of Tlou Energy called for further liberalisation of the energy sector to allow Independent Power Producers (IPPS) to not only generate power but also sell it to the export market.
“Unbundling BPC will encourage competition, which breeds better prices and services. It will also give us an opportunity to drive our national aspirations of economic transformation and becoming active players in the fourth industrial revolution,” said Gabaake.
When responding to the private sector submissions, Acting CEO Edward Rugoyi said BPC was fully in support of assisting more IPP’s to generate power and pump it into the national grid. However, he said, the corporation was strongly against allowing IPP’s to sell to the market.
“We believe IPP’s should sell directly to BPC,” said Rugoyi.
https://news.thevoicebw.com/2020/09/private-sector-calls-for-unbundling-of-bpc/
The thing is that acting BPC CEO Rugoyi never got to be made the actual BPC CEO.
That position was filled by David Kgoboko, formerly of Morupule. Investors may be interested to know that the CBM-advocating Minister Moagi of the MMGE made the appointment with his executive responsibility for the BPC.
https://thepatriot.co.bw/new-dawn-beckons-for-bpc/
I will continue to read OldBalllie's and mrmoagi's posts and wonder what their game might be.
Our 'friends' OldBalllie and mrmoagi are spreading BS again, I see.
This on Tlou and SAPP membership. Tlou Energy are quite correct in stating that membership is open to the company. the BPC maybe the monopolistic buyer/supplier in country but that certainly does NOT preclude Tlou from wheeling power through the BPC transmission grid (for a fee, of course) and selling it to another utility or even customer.
This from the SAPP website:
4 Membership Eligibility
4.1 Any Electricity Supply Enterprise situated in a SADC country and any non-SADC country is eligible to be considered for membership for SAPP.
4.2 The applicant shall indicate the class of membership applied for as indicated in Section 7 of this document.
...
7 Membership Categories
Applicants shall apply and be considered for one of the following categories:
a) NationalPowerUtility
b) Operating Member
c) MarketParticipant
http://www.sapp.co.zw/sites/default/files/SAPP%20Membership%20Application%20Guidelines%20-%20August%202019_3_0.pdf
BERA have also confirmed these arrangements.
End of.
DTE, I see TG made the statement you refer to below prior to having completed the market-study referred to in your post. Maybe look for a subsequent statement correcting the (incorrect) one you refer to?
Most of what I posted (simple non-controversial facts) can be verified here...
http://www.sapp.co.zw/
Who to believe? The OldBallie-MrMoagi-Donk nutter or the following company RNS?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLOU/government-request-for-re-tender-of-100mw-rfp-laog4xk0tnn2gv5.html
'Other Opportunities
Whilst the Company has been awaiting a response from the RFP process, in line with its stated aim of becoming a regional power producer, it has continued to pursue other potential options for the sale of Tlou's gas or power in the southern African region.
These other opportunities will continue to be developed as a priority. Developing the project, securing offtake agreements with third parties, connecting to the grid and selling or wheeling power regionally is potentially a simpler option which can be better controlled by the Company. As Botswana is part of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), Tlou is not restricted from connecting to the grid in Botswana and supplying power via wheeling arrangements to other SAPP member states.'
I thought I'd clarify the workings of the electricity market in Botswana for the benefit of all.
1st thing to know is that the SAPP consists of 12 member countries for whom their individual electricity-markets look very similiar. The markets are all heavily regulated and typically have only one buyer of electricity - this being the national utilities such as Eskom SA), BPC (Botswana), ZESCO (Zambia), etc.
None of the countries have an ISMO. An ISMO (Independent System and Market Operator) is a pre-requisite for a deregulated market in which an IPP can sell its electricity into the spot market / day ahead market / intra-day market / FPM / etc.
In the absence of an ISMO, the national utility acts as the single buyer of all electricity generated within its borders. The utility then sells the surplus or buys the shortfall in the SAPP market.
The volumes on the SAPP are thin as bulk power is often bought through multi-year contracts and the short-term shortfall is bought on the SAPP's trading platform. Botswana's Achilles heel is its heavy reliance on SA's Eskom. Eskom's troubles are well publicised and pose a major, major risk to the economies of the entire region.
In this regard, Tlou is very, very well positioned as a potential future provider of electricity into the national grid.
Thing is... the laws and regulations governing the provision of electricity in Botswana needs a major overhaul. SA has been trying to introduce an ISMO for almost 20 years now but still struggles with liberating the grid. Africa...
Botswana typically waits for SA to do something and then follows the example of its bigger Southern neighbour. Botswana have not even started looking at establishing an ISMO yet and any talk of selling electricity on the spot market is just hot air. It is not possible...
Can Tlou sell electricity from its planned solar PV plant to individual companies? No.
Can Tlou sell electricity from its CBM and / or solar PV plant to anybody else than BPC? No. Maybe in future but not now.
Does that mean Tlou is a sell? No, I don't think so. The fundamentals for a good story is in place.
But don't kid yourselves about solar PV and / or power from CBM into a "spot market" or into the SAPP. That is just BS.