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In 2019 156,000 patients were screened with OncotypeDX at an average price of $4,000 per test in the U.S.
e could see revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually for StemprintER as it catches and overtakes OncotypeDX.
To benefit patients StemprintER needs to get to market quickly and Tils does not have the infrastructure to do that so surely it makes sense to sell it to one of the major diagnostics Co's.....which will benefit patients and Investors
Agreed a major pharma already has a sales and distribution network and can quickly ramp up production etc. I can see this beig worth at least a billion to any major in its current form.
I agree & think we will sell Stem, but just wonder if it will be outright or with potential royalties (re rockz).
Also, think there is no likelihood TILS will be sold to big pharma at this stage as there are (effectively) so few shares currently circulating coupled with the fact that in excess of 75% are in the hands of only 4 holders (GC incl). If we take on trust/fact what yesterday's interview suggested, expectations, almost, cannot be measured.
The StemPrinter news that it was a 40-50% improvement on the current market leader kind of came out of nowhere. Nobody had really taken much notice of this product before then. STEM though can be valued pretty accurately because 6 months ago Exact Sciences paid £2.8bn for a similar but inferior product. if STEM is 160m shares then each share would be valued at £17.50 maybe more but not really less.
So we can place a current value on TILS of between £20-30 £20 without any COVID19 treatment £30 with.
For all we know, there could be an off the record bidding war going on in the background for StemprintER.
We suspect that two companies could be interested, maybe there’s more? This will drive the price up.
I agree with the consensus on here that StemprintER will be sold but if the option of the demerger is taken with the new company Acustem, I will still be more than happy with this outcome and have faith that production will be delivered. You don’t target a big rival like Cerrone and Shailubhai have unless you’re seriously confident in the product.
Either way, it’s a win win situation for shareholders.
Before we get too carried away with the StemprintER dollar signs we need to remember OncotypeDX was already up, running and established globally with 1,000 employees and also has colon and prostate cancer clients. Plus being 40% more accurate doesn't give it 40% more value it just means it is capable of taking the current value for itself. Not trying to be a damb squib just trying to keep my feet on the ground. :)
I am certainly not in the medical field but put yourself in the shoes of an oncologist working in a hospital. If you were aware of a product 40 per cent better than the existing product you were using for diagnosing breast cancer you would be pushing hard to use that product. There’s also the key benefit of being more accurate with the chemo requirements.
Obviously the cost factor will come into play for the procurement teams.
Maybe some hospitals/medical facilities will end up using StemprintER for breast and OncotypeDX for colon/prostate cancer.
I'm sure Exact Sciences will take a financial hit with this. I mean who will want an inferior product when their health is at stake. All clinics/hospitals/patients/insurers will want the best available. It will certainly be interesting seeing the outcome of it's valuation. :)
Afternoon all
Not sure if posted.
https://youtu.be/ggFJ-XX6C5M
Right from the horses mouth if one of our products go to market then we will be worth billions. Happy days
I’m not banking on a ten bagger from here, but I will accept a pro rata share on a £3bn stemprinter spinoff and just settle for two BIG pharma deals for Crohn’s Disease and MS.
StemPrintER maybe max around $1b think more around $600m (£2.50/2.70)
TILS market revenue late ‘21 onwards $2>5b , SP pick a number over £7 and under £12
Why would they sell Stemprinter so low when it is best in class?
Worth 4 billion dollars, but taking a conservative view take say 50 percent off and for ease of computation use 1.7 billion dollars. I think there will be some 170 million shares in issue so when demerged take half your shares to calculate your value on buy out. So, 10 dollars per share x 1/2 you’re shareholding and thats conservative.gla, vbw.
7 months ago Exact Sciences paid $2.8bn for a similar but inferior product. Part of that price was because tehre was already a sales and marketing support network in place for the product. STEM does not have this and so a discount could be expected for this. Except that if the buyer is a major then they will already have such a network. I'm going to stick with a sale of about £2.8bn giving a slight premium because its a 40% superior product. TILS has aout 170m shares in circulation which should mean a similar figure for STEM. This gives a valuation of £16.47 per share for STEM.
It's not just the network that's important, it's the investment in knowledge and awareness of the product. Plus overcoming the established presence and belief in the existing solution. That will be no small financial commitment.
Tils would not expect anywhere near 2.8b for this in the next few months.
I do agree Exact might have the biggest incentive to buy and offer the best price too and it'll be substantial but a fraction of 2.8 if in the not too distant future.
Should be remembered that Oncotype DX is about 15 years old so is well established in the marketplace. However in the last few years we have seen Mammaprint eat into that share especially in Europe. HC Wainwright have put a conservative £280m MC on stemprinter and so based on what they would have done by way of DCF and knowledge in the marketplace that is where the discussion should be. They would not just throw a number out especially when that number is twice the current MC. However, in a big pharma valuing it someone like Roche would think along the lines of how it works with their 2 blockbuster breast cancer drugs so can offer a full service whilst Exact will be mindful of a potential huge competitor hitting the market in 2021 so would buy either to make their service better and/or to prevent a competitor stealing their market. At $280m paid today we would get a nice dividend and money into the phase 2 trials or if a buyer does not come forward then stemprinter can progress and would be worth substantially more in 12 months time with distribution deals and all that comes with actually starting to generate revenue. The analyst wrote 'we anticipate that StemPrintER uptake could be significantly faster than that of Oncotype DX once introduced' in coming up with their $25 valuation of TILS it excluded much of what we are doing such as STEM, TZLS 501, miciclib for anything other than HCC and Formalulab for anything other than crohns so no value for the MS, alzheimers work.
Okay choose your figure.
Whichever you choose it still means TILS is massively undervalued just now.
£2.8bn= £16.47
£2bn = £11.76
£1bn = £ 5.88
Say Stem lists at $280m it would likely need to raise monies in order to progress towards commerciality. Based on what GC says about it being able to get into hospitals within 12 months then the upwards projection could be massive based on the exact sciences deal. One would hope that GC retains his 40% stake as he has with TILS. With 5 big pharma under CDA on the TILS pipeline and several posters at ASCO everyone will know about TILS and what it has which is why i am very relaxed that value will out in due course and based on Kunwar experience of taking drugs through the process to market and GC deal making skills and one of the best analysts in pharma putting a big target on, I am very confident that TILS/STEM will see huge upside in the next 12 months.
should stem list at $280m then say we wait a year until the sale as ultimately GC will determine how it progresses being the major shareholder with i major support from alot of the established HNW/II and we get $1bn - 4 bagger right there and still have 3 blockbuster attempts in TILS. Easy money to be made here if you sit and wait. All the markers are there.
I notice the bank of new york nominees has been replaced by Goldman sachs nominees as the second largest shareholder -only happened in last few days - not sure what to think about it.
and also think why on earth would any pharma who can see the obvious financial gain in both a circa $300m a year turnover sector (from the market leader only) not want to buy a product when just 8 months ago the competitor who you will instantly be 40% better than sold for $2.8bn. If exact sciences can make their product work for colon and prostate cancers then one would of thought STEM can be reconfigured also to be better. Exact obviously have their own motives in that their company could be become worth a fraction of what they paid for it within a year. no brainer whoever you are.
Can I ask where did the 154,000 patients at $4000 come from?
Exact Sciences did pay a lot but they also got other products and 100% of the market in short term. Forecasting revenue TILS is unlikely to get 100% market share but could penetrate the market through aggressive pricing.
These factors mean I'm discounting the Stem price compared to exact sciences.
This is a great source of information on OncotypeDX
https://www.oncotypeiq.com/en-GB/breast-cancer/healthcare-professionals/oncotype-dx-breast-recurrence-score/search/oncotypedx-test?gclid=Cj0KCQjw6ar4BRDnARIsAITGzlBlPWTze2sPBQSquY1n7uSKMLR9m7hg0pKXQiAeGbX7ALbtkjMujfQaAtVsEALw_wcB