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Nice to see the share trading volumes going up, hopefully a sign of some support for an increase back to a sensible share price!
Can't post graphs here but here is a link
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7171785180968304640
Sorry to post again but again by my calcs the basket is much as it was 6 months ago but share price down 40%
Also interesting that THS PGM basket’s biggest constituents now are, by my fallible calcs, Platinum 36% rh 31% iridium 15% and palladium only 13%. While Karo basket has Palladium and Platinum as biggest both at just over a third followed by gold 16% and then rhodium. So Karo basket has been recovering a bit faster this week. Remains to be seen if Palladiumnis a dead cat bounce or proves real
I too have maybe rashly bought a few thousand more
£74m net cash .. £140m m/c
If platinum and palladium make moves here, and continues up.. then palladium has just bounced from a decade low.
Incredible.
But what could be more important is that USDZAR has now fallen for 5 days solid.
Have bought back in after such a long time as the lack of interest is unique here today while all others in sector move higher!! Easy to say we are oversold without a breakdown of reasons to accompany the statement but I’d wager worries over Karo capex will diminish as the PGM space returns to favour. Conviction buy with potential 20-25% in short term IMO
Incredible move off the lows from palladium there!!
Palladium up 10%, platinum up 2%. The catch up rally following the gold rally has started.
THS is the next one to move.
RedoxOne is owned by THS right, yes? So what is the forecast and value of the company?
If the technology works and is a cheap way of storing electricity then you can see how beneficial this could be in storing electricity from renewables. As an EV driver if this could be rolled out as charging points in remote areas, especially in Africa, it could be quite lucrative.
Sotolo, good question! First of all I am no expert but this iron-chrome redox technology has absolutely massive potential for the carbon free economy. It allows green energy to be stored until needed and has a long -life span and can be scaled up as required. Also it is safe and commercially cheaper than other redox alternatives based on vanadium or zinc-bromide. I suppose it is worth pointing out that it is not just a case of putting chrome concentrates direct from the Tharisa concentrate plants into a chamber. Presumably the chrome has to be refined and then dissolved into an electrolyte and is highly technical hence Redox One, in Germany. This technology has been around for about 50 years and already operating in a handful of plants around the world so there are already a dozen or so players in this market place. I am sure it will be a success at the Tharisa mine storing solar power produced during daylight hours which can be released and used during the night but time will tell how successful Redox One is at developing and selling the technology externally around the world at a profit in competition to the existing players.
Ian B, I suppose this is not new news but merely the official launch of previous news. Nonetheless, good and hopefully exciting news.
Any reason why this news has not been RNS,D
Is this exciting iyho?
Posted on LinkedIn earlier
Redox One - A “MINE-TO-MEGAWATT” SOLUTION OFFICIALLY LAUNCHED
Tharisa is pleased to announce the official launch of its Redox One (www.redoxone.com) business in Cape Town, South Africa, coinciding with the Africa Energy Indaba
Redox One is at the forefront of developing long-term energy storage solutions needed by the world, using proprietary proven technology developed over decades, including by NASA, to deliver a ‘Mine-to-Megawatt’ solution at a fraction of the cost of competing technologies.
At Tharisa, innovation has always been a critical element of the business model and with Redox One, the Company has developed technology through further beneficiating its chrome produced from its flagship Tharisa Mine.
Redox One has a unique process for producing low-cost electrolyte directly for its flow battery technology. Chrome as the key ingredient means the electrolyte is safe, stable, and environmentally friendly. With direct access to cost-effective and nearly unlimited raw materials through the partnership between Tharisa and Redox One, the company has a stable supply of electrolyte for decades to come.
With an experienced energy storage management team now firmly in place, Redox One has a fast-track development timeline, with demonstration batteries already in operation.
Attending the launch, Phoevos Pouroulis, CEO of Tharisa, commented:
“In our desire to enrich lives through innovating the resources company of the future, driven by innovation and our aspiration to extract maximum benefit out of the resources that we mine, the Redox One opportunity is a natural fit for Tharisa, not only utilising our own commodity for further beneficiation opportunities but working in tandem to find a solution for the world’s energy storage needs, in a safe, and affordable manner. The team we have assembled, the technology and IP that we have developed and the partnership approach Redox One is taking will underpin the success of Redox One and I look forward to large scale deployment of this critical energy storage solution, in a market that is poised to explode in value, expected to reach US$3 trillion by 2040.”
Some great comments yesterday.
Sotolo, yes the EV share of total vehicle sales continues to grow but don't forget the overall market size continues to grow so that absolute world ICE sales are still growing and are predicted to peak next year. But I agree that the rate the EV market share increases and the rate that PGM production falls in the next decade particularly the next few years will govern the PGM basket price. I still believe we will see platinum remain in deficit over the next few years although there may possibly be enough above ground stocks for the market to draw from.
Moneyman64, I agree with your comments on the chrome and PGM prices. With less than 4 weeks of FY H1 to go I am expecting the HI PAT attributable to shareholders to be around $50m ($52.025m in H1 last year) and an EPS of 16.5c and PE below 2.
Fenzz, likewise, the Tharisa mine continues to be a money machine held back by spending on Karo with an uncertain future. In terms of the family seeing some think I suspect they have invested heavily in personal time, effort and money and still believe the PGM price will recover sufficiently in the next few years to turn back now. I hope the H1 accounts include the investment cost and price explanation when the current 75% share of Karo is increased to 80%, presumably in the second half of the year and also where we are with the sought after EICCS supported external investment and exactly how this is ring fenced to Karo. The PGM basket price will eventually recover but this will take even further considerable financial hardship to close a big chunk of the more expensive mines which could take several years.
Money man, thanks for the gentleness and being a such a gentleman, looking back through the figures you are right and maybe PGM’s have found a bottom, though a bit worse for Karo where Palladium is getting on for half I think. Also the basket is up a bit today so you are even more right. However PGM profits are down over the last couple of years along with the share price that seemed so cheap then but maybe expected this.
Mister_Short, you are absolutely right. Don't buy just because I buy and don't sell just because I sell. Tharisa still fits the kind of businesses I would buy and still high on my watchlist that's why I am here on this board. The business is still generating c$40m in OCF per quarter thanks to their chrome operations. If they announce tomorrow saying they won't go ahead with Karo, the share price here will be north of £1. Market just doesn't like Karo in this environment and I see why. I bet the company with 42% family shareholding see this too but the fact they are still going ahead with it means they see something I don't otherwise why would you destroy value in your own business like this.
Sotolo -I would gently question you assertion that PGMs keep falling.
The latest weekly basket price for the Tharisa mine is $1361,the quarterly average to 30/9 is $1331 and to 30/12 is $1344.
Hopefully the anticipated recovery in platinium prices will occur soon -the palladium content of the Tharisa mine basket is only circa 15%
Thanks Sotolo -we will see the half yearly accounts in a couple of months time .
Chrome prices have maintained their high price for the last six months ($280-$300) and most commentators do not anticipate them falling for the rest of the year -PGMs appear to have bottomed.
With larger chrome production I am anticipating eps circa 12c to 16c for the six months to 31/3/24
Money man, unfortunately the profits may fall as much as the share price with the continuing falls in PGM’s so the PE may remain around where it was. The world’s largest car market continues to increase the share of pure ev’s, already nearing 30%, even a small drop in demand for PGM’s can reduce the price a lot unless supply falls too and this is just getting worse. Luckily we have the chromium as long as this price stays up, but it seems to have halted for now while still plenty of inflation. Just as long as it doesn’t do a nickel. So the price seems fair to me for now with the Karo worry on top. It isn’t a great time to have a lot of debt and a capitalisation now just £144m. I wonder what they’ll say in the next report, they seem rather defensive now which I find a bit worrying, though all this is only my totally uninformed and unprofessional opinion as these bulletin boards are used and I certainly don’t suggest doing anything though I am still holding.
This is getting ridiculous -if the shareprice goes much lower we won’t be far off a p/e of 1..
Based on all basis -dividend yield/price earnings and balance sheet asset value the shareprice is way too low even if the Karo investment was written down to Zero or below.
Any ideas .?
It;s to everyone to make their own investment choices, even if Affran on Twitter is saying it;s a screaming buy!
Did all the rampers ever apologise for being so wrong?