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online retail stocks are off the lows now. a wee little bounce. US markets are at the lows.
20m high volume. some of those buyers will be in for a 10% bounce i guess.
Kall
I suspect the MMs have buyers putting in buy orders...including short players.....and all the MMs have to do is drive the sellers to the exit door .....knowing they have a profit waiting for the work they do
If 20m shares are traded today...then that would be 20/1372 or 1.457% of the shares .....the churn and panic selling driving the sellers into being given less and less to exchange for cash.....the market having to provide an exit price....
Kall
no one knows the bottom...sure...agreed...
right now though...today is a message to the FED that the markets are concerned about the way the FED is going to play things.....better a CLEAR message than a fudgy one.... ( Putin timing with Ukraine as well is perfect ..teach everyone a lesson ..)
The markets can easily absorb a quarter point rate increase in March....but... the increases for the rest of year are causing economic growth worries.....raising into a slow down.....
Some of the supply problem worries will go on for months still and the price increases are there to get people to wait..until supply improves......
No one can afford a recession-depression..it will be even more expensive and disastrous than borrowing to keep things moving
There is so much unproductive debt in the US,... that too high rate increases will cause a big problem..
I worry more about Powell and the FED than MM .....Putin..well..respect to him..he is no fool...but he may well bark louderthan the eventual bite
Irrespective of the perception of THG being undervalued/overvalued, this is now caught up in the start of a massive market correction. Be difficult to forecast the bottom on THG, even though it looks like a good buy at this value
Kallu. I answer your points and then you just ignore them when you’ve been proven wrong. Then on the other you cut a piece out of context which now makes no sense
Why don’t we pick up the ingenuity thread. The penny was dropping for you as to how great it is!
Putin is a Master at playing mischief and is doing a great job at getting everyone scurrying around ..wondering what to do...
He will be pleasing the Chinese the ways he is playing Ukraine..like the Chinese are playing Taiwan
And when Putin visits the Chinese Premier very soon..they will be impressed ...the Russian-Chinese Alliance will be stronger for it all.....which is what Putin wants ..especially if he also has the Saudi´s in his pocket with regards to deciding when to supply more oil ...
He can see Biden and Johnson are weak and behind the curve....
Invading Ukraine may well be a step too far....especially if the Ruble then gets hit hard.....and Russian exports fall in a depression....
He knows what he is doing and probably knows when to stop.....until then..everyone else is having to dance to his tune
I believe inflation will start to ease 2nd to 3rd quarter and back to target sometime in 2023. I’ve said before, as soon as we seen a reversal in inflation prints, we will see growth rise quickly. These are the times you make money and you don’t even have to be a genius. All you do is follow the macro and hope Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine.
double bottom at 119p
Hosai - what are growth stocks but a bunch of speculative stocks relying on sentiment. There are fundamentals that have to come into play. You are correct the large stocks which make bulk of the mcap of the indices have been largely shielded, but that too will now come into focus and its when **** really hits the fan. take Tesla for example... 300 odd times earnings. Where was it before the pandemic. It will tell you how far this bubble has got to burst.
There is no such thing as "bottom" for growth stocks who are loss making.
Fed raise rates soon. inflation report out in May shows inflation easing and money comes back into tech stocks inc THG. then today's price will look cheap!
Yes Mumbo but my point is everything you have said has been being priced in for the last 6 months hence why growth stocks have been dropping since then. People are talking like there will be another drop when these things actually happen but the stock market doesn't work like that it is forward looking.
Hosai - Inflation is now rampant and 1 or even 2 % rates are not going to cut it. They will have to be far more aggressive. Then there is the rebalancing the asset purchases, which is the real reason markets have been inflated so much without increase in productivity to justify it. Fed is going to start to sell those.... this is just a prelude to what will be happening.
have a look at what happened to nasdaq when tech bubble popped.
People are letting the sp dictate their views of management. If sp had gone up to 300-400p people wouldn't be saying "they got lucky with the bad management", they'd be saying "management really turned it around".
well done to the guys that called this, can think of Kallumama. Your call was spot on, and i got this completely wrong. Thought £2 was decent value. Hopefully ill get to sell these into a mini - bounce, although the sell off has been utterly relentless for months. Think the lesson for the short term is unprofitable companies; you don't want to be anywhere near these with inflation ratcheting up.
As a side comment, so disanointed with management. Getting your mum to make phone calls, conspiracy theories and not giving the city the information it needs over ingenuity and spin offs..it just destroys shareholders. Cant believe how badly managed this all is
Market has been pricing in LOTS of future interest raises for the last 6 months. They are so priced in if anything market might rise when the rates rise in the same way as last time they actually fell when they dropped the rate because it was so aggressively priced in already.
He's independent in that it isn't his deal (I just explained this). It's like any PE firm you have an internal investment committee who assess the deals brought by the execution team and sign off. They all work for KKR/ Bain/ Bridgepoint etc it's just people who are independent from the deal
"I don't buy you argument that this is just business as usual in Softbank," - I never said this but Son is looking to build the future and if in his view ingenuity is a part of that then he will want to own it. Ingenuity is clearly a keystone as look at how many collaborations with portfolio businesses they have. No other softbank business does that
Governance
If you put the guy on who structured the deal he's always going to say "great deal"
The guy they put on is independent
"Normally the person who puts in the investment get's selected on the board of the investment not a third party like Dr Hanssen who is on the board of Autostore."
This isn't always true. Actually in the HUGE HUGE pe firms you have execution teams and portfolio so it's actually the more common structure
"Autostore is a proper Tech company mate." it is but it is the marriage between physical and tech that is ingenuity. Autostore gets a parcel from a bin 60 yards away. How do you get that to a customer in Singapore? Autostore can't do that
Kallu, Thats an interesting take on things.
he's starting his own "long only' fund. Looking at his past history with Wirecard and Northstar where Son has lost $1.3 billion, not many are going to be rushing to give him money to invest on their behalf.
He still works for softbank and doing computer science at MIT would make you pretty decent at Tech!
The only article saying he is leaving says he is going to do his own fund
Also you've not mentioned the softbank dude who is on teh board who is also on the board of what other company?
Softbank already contributed $730 million of the $1.05 billion THG raised at 596p in May.
I read here that guy is now moving on.
Imagine if they had exercised that option!! rather than employee of the month, he would have been toasted as Plonker of the year.
They didn't
They have an option
But they did want to put the money in
Look on the bright side, at least your not the advisor at Softbank who recommended sticking $1.6bn into this wonderful asset................if you are I hope your next job works out better.