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typo...poor old fingers!!! Will happen to every one, when they get to tender age of 89 yrs!!
Expect good news this week and a continue rise
Lets have good Monday for the loyal investors!!
If this is anything to go bye
RE: Rise16 Aug 2019 16:19
There will be an RNS at the close to say MK has been in touch with BOD and has added another 2% to his holding. Come on 7.29 close today
Monday it will start at around 19P
I would say 19p
6.5 TY Mr Doom and Gloom
So every one lets have your prediction for the opening price tomorrow
@illbe I’d rather play call of duty than spending my time day and night on here as you do
@illbe if the MM are speculating on an incoming bid they must be doing a ****ty job. The only thing that is coming should the rescue deal see the light is dilution
but buck - you just said it's crazy to think NK will make a bid for the equity, so why would the share price still be 8p...?! it's certainly not the PIs on here keeping the price up on "speculation", and surely the street is as smart of you to figure out 1p is coming? then why the HUGE discrepancy?
if you have more accurate figures on the resultant valuation of the new business - please post...
i do have a question for you though - if you convert $2bn of debt into equity - what is the resultant equity worth? ;-)
@illbe if posting those figures fulfils your obsession then good luck.
@illbe do you know what i like about you the most is that you keep on posting figures that everyone knows about. The SP plunged from 13P to 4.5P on the back of the 750m rescue deal it then plunged from 9P to 6P on the back of the additional 150m. Those two figures have already been priced in the SP
Buck - you are missing two vital bits of analysis from your thinking:
1) the valuation of the resultant debt-free business after D/E
2) the terms on which the existing shareholders MAY be given the opportunity to participate in the recapitalisation (let's assume this to be zero for the sake of this answer)
you can work out the dilution but YOU DO NOT KNOW the price at which the dilution will happen. It could be 1p, it could be 5p, nobody knows. A few sell-side analysts have it at 5p, and that's maybe why the price hovered around 4-5p before the NK news.
Here are my numbers:
New equity is issued at the share price of 5p
Current shares (m) 1,534
Market cap (£m) 77
Fosun equity (£m) 450
Bond equity (£m) 75% x 1700 = 1,300
New equity (£m)1,750
New shares 35,000
FY20
EEBIT 300
EBIT margin 2.5%
Revised interest cost -75
PBT 225
PAT (£m) 180
EPS (p) 0.50
You then have to assume the new business (with its significantly reduced debt) would re-rate, so I assume a P/E of 10x (same as comps) which then values the new business at 5p or $1.8bn market cap.
so yes, significant dilution, but you should also get a 10x re-rating in the new business which will leave you pretty much where we were before NK.
obviously all these numbers are estimates, and could be wildly wrong. If Fosun and TCG manage to turn around the business there could be upside to the numbers. There could obviously be significant downside too.
for the record - I AM SHORT - but constantly pushing myself to see the other side of the thesis.
Every 1 at Metro BB thinks the price should be between £10 to £12 pound, as the book value is £1.7B. As for inside dealing info, I have nothing to hide or worry about. I m sure if I was out of line the moderators, would have interved by now. We lose some and we win some, all share trading is a big gamble. As you must know, even the experts get it wrong from time to time. Is all being lucky when you pick a share. Don't forget I b posting the Euro Million numbers here on Monday night. Also what this posting twice
We also know from a previous statement you are loosing a fortune on metro bank.....so again your trying desperately to get the price back up....
We have now all seen you for what you are trying to do Amers.......
Amers we get the point you are desperate for this to get to 19p, you stated a month or so ago your average price was 15p thus you are holding up to 19p, yes we can see you are desperately trying to get your money back.....but what you did Friday is extremely serious and a lot of day traders could be selling like mad first thing Monday morning unless there is an RNS first thing the chance of it getting to 19p anytime soon is Zero! If it does get there Monday a lot of people will be thinking insider trading from you.....maybe worth winding your neck in a bit ....
IMHO 2 shares to watch TCG to recover and Metro Bank to rise from around £2.70 to £10 to £12 within 6 to 12 months. Copy paste this, so you will know who said it. As always DYOR
Tomorrow this time 19p
Fastest finger first on Monday...selling like wild fire!
Matlot one thing you are right about is, when **** hits pan with SP on the bad news, there will be no buyers, unless one has more info then it is avail to general public. I had the same issue with Motif Bio, it took me over a day to offload my holding. PI's are not in control when bad news comes.
Buck what you are saying it makes sense, but what is puzzling every one is, as to WHY is share price is so high. That's what ppl can't get their head around. Also why don't they suspend the shares, until they have sorted the outcome, that will prevent others losing more money. This way every one will be level par.
..the price pop was 16:08 though.. I hate to spoil your fun but get over it... the boards are moderated...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aKnX5wci404
You have no idea whatsoever what the dilution price will be - stop suggesting otherwise.
What’s the difference between what Amers stated re RNS coming vs Buck on numerous occasions suggesting an rns on 12th august (which ended up being true).
Yes buck - plenty of times you’ve said 1-2p, which suggests it’s not priced in, no?
Buck Point taken on board.