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Polyminer2, Boulby is hampered by an aging mine, limited infrastructure capacity and retrofit. Trying to achieve something new with old!
There is no doubt that polyhalite is hard as hell and will take a bit of chipping but this Woodsmith mine is being designed around these volumes and product.
Boulby is a Morris Minor putting on alloys and pretending to be a modern day sports car.
That's because the company were set on stage two with JPM and going for all debt. We're in different territory now out of those terms with company at risk of takeover/administration. This is plan c. The final, but less favourable resort.
well we are about to receive a brand new Komatsu /joy, were all hoping for good results and reliability but Its not just about the mining of Poly its about down time maintaining all your equipment and shaft, Poly is a brutal mineral, I'm not going to post the problems on here. something you need to consider is dust management and access to all deliveries for a machine like a skid steer, with the tonnage your hoping for you will be buried within a week.
Mr.dt - there are an awful lot if institutions onboard that haven’t budged an inch ...
GLA
Is it only me who is certain that this isn't going to fail? Fully aware I could get diluted upto probably a max of 75% but also fully aware of those who are on our side and have been for a very long time. There's still gonna be a slice of the cake for me, I'm gonna enjoy watching shorters get burned.....what's not to like. You can all make your own minds up. Got my popcorn ready, research brings me much relief......ready for the showdown ; - )
No disrespect to you and your practical experience but I did discuss this volume issue with Joy Global engineer's at an exhibition a couple of years ago, they didn't seem too concerned about the multi tracked approach to reach those volumes, considering they supply ICL with their equipment you will no doubt know they are very experienced in this field, there will be a big diffence between the layout of the drives at Woodsmith compared to your current set up.
Sheps8.
Ru
The post is the same as about 10-15 others I have just trawled through, just from today!
To summarise:
Very high risk and therefore high reward. The share is still priced to fail. Finding a partner is tough. Shareholders could be dilution extensively.
Nothing that people haven’t been told multiple times on a daily basis.
Personally, I have no problem with people posting the risks with the share but don’t make out it’s new news, that people don’t already know!
The share price is 3p for a reason and therefore anyone holding is gambling.
I’m not sure what you expect everyone to do. Risks are clear and if it goes to crap then the share holders lost their bet.
Simple as that. Nothing new, the share will go back to 3p and we all wait for the next news.
Personally, I’m tempted to increase my holding if it hits 3p again.... my investment. My money. My fault if it fails.
Tex
Oh come on RuSirius, no ones accused you of being a "troll" a windbag but not a troll, after reading that sermon from our very own Mr book talker extraordinaire I could see why he appeals to your posting style, although he does tend to only say his piece once, you on the other hand!!!!.
Sheps8.
Jesus Christ that’s a long post.
In summary, for those who don’t want to waste 5 minutes of their lives reading and trying to decipher it.
“Bit of a long punt, you don’t think it’s looking good, could all go to crap”.
Noted. :-) thanks
I see lots of obviously very clever people on here correct wording, good knowledge of finance but know jack about mining Poly, you will not get 13 million tones a year, unrealistic expectation.
Last line: '$120/t of earnings'.
And rest:
Borrowings fully paid down
Divi distribution ¾ of earnings
Valuation 15x divi pay-out.
Finally: no of shares 18bn.
Realistic? One to judge ………. Divi per share and share price? Best go calculate.
Whereas if they don’t?............What else is there? Toast city!
This is now an outsider punt when you look at the odds. But the odds are what they are because this ‘horse’ has never yet/is yet to.. come ‘in’. Fair odds? You know what they say – DYO.
Note to self: no way to build a pension this.
GK.
Evening/
Long time no comment on Sirius from me. I’ve found no reason until there was something worth chewing on from the co. All would be just chaff otherwise. But now we have a plan to possibly drag this from the gates of the graveyard. A nascent plan as yet, but something that can become plausible and even executable….I think. IMV Sirius have always wanted to control this. But as the debt market would not give them the trust with that and hence all the cash to complete this build they have had to finally submit to the prospect that they are going to have to share. So partnership is in the end being taken seriously. Perhaps that should have happened some time back but that’s the past.
Little doubt this BoD know well there are many out there who would take every opportunity to not share nicely – Eurochem? Zero chance IMO and just FT mischief – so finding this partner is a tricky one especially with the clock quickly ticking down. This partnering party has to be attracted by more than just getting an asset of high potential value (post covering the build), they must also I believe want in majority this management to remain and also the goodwill between Sirius and contractors and between Sirius and TorP customers to hold. As for the BoD and SHs so the partner will also want the later $2.5bn of debt raise to succeed – the ‘wheels’ have to remain on. They need to have motive to not be attracted by instead seeing WS mothballed and so becoming available from receivers for a fire sale song. With those aux strictures I can only see one entity or a small consortium of the TorP takers (with probably associated funded wealth holders) being in the frame. We know who they are.
If the co get that to work, the big ‘if’, what of present holders’ prospects?
$600m is being targeted for this project derisk. There is a chance part of that would not be (in either immediate or longer term) new equity, but I’m assuming it would be. Mcap today is a depressed ~$300m. They cannot take the open market route. I expect (with luck) it will become understood that there is a partner and then who they are to be. That ‘should’ lift the value – maybe even to 6p (Liberum … yeah, yeah, paid by co) we’ll see. With that the dilution would be more palatable and retained value for existing SHs may just come out near half today’s. Not forgetting existing CBs perhaps an 8bn new issue taking it to a total 16b issue.
With the present 3p odd sp this is still priced to die and until something solid suggests there is someone other than the co who looks to want to agree to the plan or something close I doubt it will change much. However this now extrema speculative negativity has to be balanced with what can be a now very significant upside, though that many a year off. Assumptions for year 8 from here:-
In production for 5 years.
At 13mt/y production.
Average P4 sale price $200/t.
Total costs (Opex + other) $80/t so $120/y of earnings.