Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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No news in particular, just a distressed seller that seems is nearly, if not done this week. Personally I think it's Blackrock selling down.
The business model itself is superb as is the BoD. Forward looking statement is also rosy from last update. Hopefully next week we'll see a reversal in the share back up to reflect true value.
The recent drop in share price is worrying. Wonder if there is some piece of news I am missing, that bigger investors are aware of? The stock seemed cheap at 140p so i kept buying but now its 120! Any idea if there is any upcoming regulation on vaping?
Results in December 21
Trading Update just over 1 month ago.
Supreme could really do with providing more regular news updates as nothing has been added since September 21.
Previous to that they were updates almost every month.
https://www.supreme.co.uk/news/
Come on Supreme, you need to be doing more to stop the share price slide unless that is the intention!
You've hit the nail on the head Agricore. The vaping market alone is growing massively. I myself have been using 88vape products over the last few years. The liquids are cheap and less harsh than the more overpriced competition. They also have varying solution strengths and flavours so you can phase slowly down. Not only that, they're compatible with the majority of free liquid loading vaping pens.
As you've outlined the health/wellness/fitness improvement sector is another growing area of business. The truth of the matter is that Supreme has targeted growing and profitable sectors and furthermore looking to broaden its portfolio within the same theme.
It's what I like about the BoD, they've stuck their money in the business with management owning over 50% of the company in shares and Institutional Investors also taking a slice of what's left. They've also looked inflation in the eye and forward bought products to cater for problems ahead! Jeez if that isn't forward business thinking, I don't know what is!
At current MC and consequently share price... This is a steal!
Foreward and forecast yield 2023 is now 5.8% and 2024 is 6.4%.
The question is do you agree with the narrative that people will "trade down" on vitamins and vapes? For me personally, I've thought for a long while and Ripoff and Barrett was ripe for disruption. Pay triple and get one for a penny - no thanks. H&B is owned by a Russian Oligarch too..... So Sealions is a very logical play - as well as the Millions and Millions in store brands too. Vaping I don't vape and never have but the trading down argument makes perfect sense to me there. As for the other stuff well batteries and lighting are pretty defensive/inelastic. Health drinks aren't exactly going out of fashion either. So I look at the track record (a great one), the brands (strong in my view), the "Moat" - the "it's not fair" customer relationships and synergies of cross selling. Management team - strong in my view. It seems this is a great port to shelter from the storm.
There's lots of institutions invested here so I guess these large sales driving the price down are one of those repositioning? More fool them I say. Fill yer boots coz it's Supremely cheap.
GLA
Massive dumps yesterday seem to relay that... hopefully resume upward momentum here now back to true value!
A big dump of 125k shares at 15:37 to a value of £158K shows up after hours... hope this is the end of the seller!...but who knows.
@TDinvestor, I thought they couldn't buy between notification of results, (financial) and actual day of publication?.. I may be wrong.
Holy sheet, as I typed another 125k share dump shows up...so that's 250k shares dumped! Seller must be done. Find out tomorrow I guess!
I’m not sure as to whether the bod can add until after they publish the results in July? Anyway, I added a few more today. GLA
Daily downward spiral due to seller. Unbelievable! Thought the BoD would take advantage of the low sp and top up, but nothing as yet. To think this was in the 180's a few weeks ago!
Well that's the clarification we needed... nice lil update trading-wise. Clued up BoD!
Just added at 136p - well oversold here, as the RNS implicitly suggests imo.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/e-cigarette-market-size-in-the-uk-to-grow-by-usd-1-20-billion--technavio-301513223.html
UK Market - 13% CAGR for vaping apparently.
Hello TD
A "special" dividend is a one-off dividend. DividendMax lists them as special (and Equity research state an incorrect 2.1p dividend), hence me repeating that. However on closer inspection both are incorrect on the value and type (i.e. it's an Interim and 2.2p). However, in FY2021 they did NOT pay a final dividend. They paid an interim one in January 22 as we know. SUP's policy is as below so yes it appears we can expect a further dividend in July 22. And presumably one of around 4.4p (tasty!) based on their 1/3 and 2/3 policy below.
>>As highlighted at the time of our IPO, we intend to pay dividends to shareholders in an aggregate annual amount equivalent to approximately 50% of net profits, retaining the balance of earnings from operations to finance our future expansion. Our dividend payments are expected to be split into a one third interim dividend and a two thirds final
dividend and we expect to declare our first interim dividend following the publication of our interim results for the six-month period to 30 September 2021.
On another note is anyone else tempted to further top up at today's 138p? FY2023 yield is now 5.3% rising to 5.9% which I think is incredibly good.
There is little or no exposure to mc colls as was mentioned
In the pod cast as it’s supplied by morrisons
Well the hope being that if TDR Capital/Morrisons/ASDA takeover the operations and business ...McColl shareholders may not benefit much, but the above mentioned entities will continue to brand Supreme products and therefore honour contract. This would set aside a lot of uncertainty .. if it was RNS'd
Do we know how much business we have with Mcoll’s. It looks like they are going under and that could leave us with bad debts etc. I think this is why are in an oversold position right now. Very well run company with Sandy and Co at the help and I’m sure these headwinds will be testing but temporary.
Hi, thanks for this. The half year results RNS (for the period to 30/9/21) announced a maiden ordinary divi of 2.2p, paid on 14 Jan 22. Won't the next div then be announced in the full year results (for the period to 31/3), which they have said will be issued in July 22?
I'm not sure what you're referring to when you say "special" divi.
Last special dividend of 2.7p was Dec 21 paid in Jan 22 and the next special dividend is forecast to be 2.1p in Dec 22. Paid in Jan 23.
The forecast yield then for 2023 and 2024 grows to 5.2% and 5.7% at current prices!
That was the interim divi, another to come in 2022, no?
Unfortunately you missed the divi, next payout is in 2023!
Yeah, agreed. But I couldn't resist adding today - you have the divi with this one, which pays you to wait it out.
About the same 10%, was thinking of topping up this low, but my own rules currently don't allow to be this exposed to one stock, especially as I can clearly see a seller. MM's have brought it down this low for a reason... Think we'll see another TR1 soon of accumulation. When shenanigans are done, this will bounce hard imo.
I'm down 10% on my recent investment but, heigh-ho, I never time the bottom of a dip.
The presentation was great. The key takeaway for me is that in their high-growth high-margin consumer vaping business, they are positioned not only as the largest, but also the cheapest in the UK. Should be resilient, therefore, in a cost of living crisis.
In short, this is just illiquid market volatility to ride through and I'm not worried.
Seems we either have a seller drip selling or a buyer accumulation. Recent RNS shows an II increased position. We're at or close to IPO price. Really surprising as I was impressed with the presentation, all looks very good for great growth with Supreme. BoD looks and sounds mature in approach very clued up in business tactics!
Undervalued to say the least at current SP!