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Tosca fund look to have pretty much doubled their holding. Presumably means that the deal has no chance of going through. That's circa 25% between Fidelity and Tosca, both declared to be in opposition.
NHS waiting lists could top 13 million patients within a few months!! Sounds like we are being softened up by our Govt for the massive spending plan to reduce the Covid induced waiting lists!!
A perfect time to buy a private hospital group with thousands of staff, carers, nurses, doctors and surgeons plus state of the art hospitals across the country. The Spire Board turned a much higher offer price down from Netcare when the conditions weren’t anywhere near as good as today. Why?
It will be interesting to see what happens to the board of directors if the deal doesn't go through. Will their positions become untenable? Hard to see how they can survive if their recommendation to sell is voted down. I always thought Justin Ash was pretty good.
Having sold my shares at a higher price, I am taking advantage and starting to buy back in. If the bid goes through I make a small amount - around 8.5%. If the bid fails (more likely) I will lose say circa a max of 20% on my small new tranche - I will also use any failed bid pullback to re-establish a decent sized longer term holding again. The private sector will be essential to reducing the NHS backlog - like it or not. This is a strategic asset in that sense. It does have debt but it also has good cashflow and people / bodies who need our services more than ever. Ramsay's bid is on the low side for definite, if they get it across the line they will have done well. I don't think it will wash. I think they needed to offer 300p to be successful personally. Will be happy to be sitting on 300p plus a share in this 2-3 years down the line, possibly more. I think that once other parties realise the potential they will be quick to jump on this and there will be further much improved offers down the line.
Extending the court date and asking shareholders if they want to change their votes!! Doesn’t look like this is a “knock out” bid price for the big Institutions.
Such a scarcity of good healthcare investments in the public markets that I’d be surprised if this extra few pence on the bid made any difference to voting intentions. Spire is a unique and high quality asset, why sell so cheaply? Especially now!!
Also interesting that Ramsay call it a final offer, but reserve the right to make a higher offer if someone else comes in and outbids them. It's quite standard to say this I think, but also has a hidden implication that they might be prepared to go higher if pushed.
thanks sage
Given the words 'materially undervalues' were used by Fidelity who hold not far off 10% I don't think a 4% increase from 240p to 250p is really going to cut it.
It looks like the expectation is that the bid won't be accepted - hence no one believes 250p will be achieved. If the bid falls away completely (possible) then the share price will likely fall back further in the short term at least. Long term this is probably worth considerably more than the bid, but this might take a while to achieve.
Jiddy I'm confused why SP is not at 2.50. How do you lose buying at 238p as it is now.?
Final offer from Ramsay of £2.50 - outcome @ Meeting on 12th July.
I think many small share holders will be voting against the proposal...I feel that 300p is an attainable share price...
The bid from Ramsey significantly undervalues Spire bearing in mind the backlog of elective procedures that Spire is well placed to pick up. The current bod seem open to selling and moving onto their next ventures bearing in mind they accepted the very first offer put to them.
Apart from Mediclinic and the bod I can't see this gaining sufficient shareholder support to get it over the line. I wouldn't be surprised if HCA came in with a higher offer.
"Ramsey and Spire have multiple hospitals in close proximity to each other so even if this gets past shareholders the Competition commission may block it anyway or force the sale of a number of hospitals. Interesting times ahead...."
They don't really. Ramsay is primarily ISTC-based in areas not covered by Spire. Spire is primarily PMI/self pay based in areas where it is competing with other PMI/self pay providers (e.g. Nuffield and Circle). Even the Spire / Ramsay NHS areas tend not to overlap unduly.
This offer is low IMO, wouldn't surprise me if HCA came in with a higher bid. HCA are predominantly London based, with a new build in Birmingham so the only issue to get past with the competitions commission would be Manchester where both companies have state of the art facilities.
Ramsey and Spire have multiple hospitals in close proximity to each other so even if this gets past shareholders the Competition commission may block it anyway or force the sale of a number of hospitals. Interesting times ahead....
Just read the Sky article. The Board have nothing at all to lose by auctioning the company, nothing at all as the Spire trading outlook is fantastic and they are trading well and PE generally is awash with cash for companies just like Spire. Remember these were originally BUPA hospitals sold to PE for £1.44 billion in 2007. We know asset valuations are much higher today for these assets and with interest rates close to zero and lots of liquidity around this is a strange move for a brand new chairman to take.
Very low offer and way below Netcare’s previous offer of a few years ago. As others have said on here, there are record NHS waiting lists, increasing private pay procedures, massive opportunities for them now with Covid prevalent and yet they choose to sell out now. Puzzling but hard to see who else will pay a material amount more than this price due to their best hospitals being leased and still a load of bank debt etc.
The bid is definitely on the low side. We'll see what happens ...
Mongrel3 - many thanks for posting that Article.
It appears on the surface that Ramsay's bid is substantially undervalued. I, for one, will be rejecting the offer.
That's what I love about stocks - I made £35K PDQ in a small Oil Co & then diversified into Post Covid opps inc Spire.
I invested £10K here a few weeks ago, & hey presto I am now £4K up.
As some of you have said, the clinical proposition is compelling.
There may be other suitors - who knows!