The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Thanks Sain for your helpful post on smp.Josh seems to have gone awol . however, "To buy or not to buy that is the question". Would you be inclined to add now or after Feb 3 when the results are due? Or perhaps not at all and instead add to my much larger holding of tef to which I am firmly wed until death do us part. My very best wishes to you & fellow tef enthusiasts for the New Year. My resolution is to stop making silly quotations!
SMP becoming a bit of a stalwart and current SP looks quite tempting Although SMP are a fully fledged property company combining asset management with master planning and development they tend to sell investments where they can no longer add value I suspect that upon physical completion they will be disposing of what will be effectively dry prime assets like the flagship 150k M&S store at Longbridge which will command a meaty yield in today,s market recycling the monies into their development arm Some interesting large mixed use sites currently being marketed in the W Mids which are right up SMP,s street
hi josh have you any thoughts why smp are performing so badly in front of the results?
Indeed! Trailing Twelve month PE is actually only 3.87!! Having said this the business model does dictate that profits are slightly more lumpy than say a specialist house builder due to the projects and deals SMP undertakes, and so it is best to adjust the PE across a business cycle. Like you say, SMP at the peak of the last cycle traded at over twice NAV. Given that NAV is forecast to grow by a further 40-50% over the coming years that would yield a NAV of c. 650pence, and if we do ever trade on a 2x NAV multiple again that would equate to a share price of £13!!! Not saying we will ever get up to £13, but the potential for this to double is most definitely there; 800p 3-4 years out on a NAV of 650p would only equate to a trading multiple of 1.2, very reasonable!
With a P/E ratio of under 8 and a record year promised , trading at 90p below the year's high ,despite nothing but positive subsequent statements from the Board , the market is missing this one. In previous years the Management's proven ability was rewarded by a shareprice at a considerable premium to asset value, whereas, as has been pointed out, bizzarely they now trade at a discount of around 10%. Given that the midland region where they are strong is set for a buoyant period backed by Government incentives-what's not to like?
I'm back in having temporarily exited at c. £4.40 to take up some other opportunities. This looks very good value at these levels and there must now be very limited downside given the fact that analysts at Liberum Capital have forecasted NAV for November just ended to be c. £4.50. At these levels this rates the stock at 4.50-4.12/450 = c. 9% discount to current NAV which looks too cheap and unwarranted IMO. The board have also confirmed another set of record profits will be announced on Feb 3rd. Also interesting to note last year this bottomed out around mid December before rallying very strongly up 30% to Febuary results. Will history repeat itself? Well maybe not to that effect, but Peel Hunt have slapped a £5.15 price target on the stock which from £4.12 represents a potential 25% return from here. I think we will have another run at a fiver next year but I'm tucking these away in my ISA for a good few years yet! Remember this was IC's growth tip of the year last January at £3.94 and is currently trading within less than 5% of that range. Very good buying opportunity IMO. GLA
I noticed yesterday that the workmen are back on site , so this is good news . So hopefully answered my last question . Looks like sub station being erected .
Your October blog encapsulates what value investing is all about. Having identified an undervalued stock you often have to sit on it for years until Mr Market wakes up to the situation. I'm a holder of SMP but in particular I discovered that Mountview hadn't revalued theirstock of trading properties. They finally announced this last year (some 10 years after my discovery)and 'bingo' they shot up in the blink of an eye .
The site in Liverpool looks very quiet , is the development going ahead , or is it on hold ? The demolition has been done and the site is levelled , not sure if groundworks are in . The old market halls on the east side of Great Homer Street are now cleared . A massive site now .
"Given the pipeline for SMP the TBV could increase 50% to 100% over the next 3 years. Given that the market cap for SMP has historically been double TBV once the sector starts to fully recover we could easily see a price approaching 1,500 pence per share or more within 3 years. Extremely undervalued companies usually end up doing the logical in terms of repricing, but just not when you expect. I recall Gary White (formerly Questor) making a compelling case for Barratt in 2010, made it one of hos tips of the year for the start of 2010, nothing much happened that year, or the year after, I was baffled and frustrated but refused to walk away as Barratt remained a screaming buy, everything just got better except the price - then in August 2012 bang - my biggest regret is selling out far far too soon, I more than doubled my money but I could have ..... never mind! Timing of clear buys is a stange thing, if the story remains intact they invariably do as you hope, but it is almost as if weaker holders need to be shaken out and replaced with determined holders and then when there is no more shaking out to be done, the move begins - hardest aspect of investing I think, patiently waiting, I certainly find it so."
A MAJOR developer has bought 19 acres of prime land in Worcester which belonged to the Government - raising the prospect of more homes being on the way. St Modwen has come to a deal with DEFRA (the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) over its offices in Whittington Road near Junction 7 of the M5. The sale, which has been in the offing for some time, means the huge brownfield complex is now expected to undergo a significant regeneration. St Modwen insists its thoughts on the land are open-ended, saying it is "exploring a number of options" for the prime site.
The firm is already a big player in Worcester, and is behind the ongoing housing regeneration of the old Worcester City FC site in St George's Lane. Jonathan Green, a development surveyor at St Modwen, said: "We’re currently exploring our options for the site, which is in an ideal location in terms of its proximity to the city centre, the railway station and the motorway. "This purchase from DEFRA further cements St Modwen’s dedication to Worcester, where we’re working on progressing a number of different schemes." St Modwen has recently completed the construction of 25,000 square foot of new employment space on a speculative basis at Great Western Business Park near Tolladine, and has submitted a planning application to build a further 60,000 square foot. It also owns and manages the Shrub Hill Industrial Estate and Nunnery Way, a 19-acre site which it is developing for employment, showroom and leisure space.
Easing towards £5.. what a share this is, still dirt cheap. This will double inside three years.
May be a pretty rookie question, but what would the reasons for a price bounce for 3 days on the 455 level be, as has been from results on Friday through to Tuesday afternoon? Fund buying anything being sold at this level? Seems like end of Tuesday it has started shifting up.
St Modwen builds on deals with profit up 306%: The developer behind the regeneration of the former MG Rover site in Birmingham and the £2 billion New Covent Garden Market in south London has enjoyed a 306% bounce in pretax profit in the first half of the year
You're right, the valuation gain on the covent garden project has led to significantly enhances profits but the trailing twelve month PE ratio is already just 4.19 and I think we can expect EPS for the second half slightly better than last year leading to a pe of around 4 for the year. From there profits likely to level off in 2016, but still significant value to unlock and the ultra low earnings multiple should push up the book value over time. Rental incomes provide a steady source of income and plans to expand house building ops encouraging! Year end price target of 570p by Numis conservative IMO! This can easily double in price over the next couple of years. Good luck all!
I had to double take when I read that Josh! Just checking the figures I don't think they are likely to repeat interim pre-tax profit in the second half, still it looks very encouraging their outlook "Encouragingly, even excluding the positive impact on initial recognition of NCGM, we would still be announcing record half year results with profit before all tax excluding this gain up 50% to £75.1m"
Forward pe for the year now expected to be below 4 as momentum continues into the second half, as mentioned in IC still significant value to be unlocked here!
The key driver behind a tripling in pre-tax profits for St Modwen Properties (SMP) at the half-way stage was receiving the go-ahead to develop its 57-acre joint venture development at New Covent Garden Market at Nine Elms. Securing unconditional status means the development is now recognised as an asset on the balance sheet, and it contributed £128m to the £170.2m net valuation increase on the portfolio, thus boosting net asset value per share by a third. Net rental income edged up to £18.6m, although this is expected to accelerate in the second half as the group completes 1m sq ft of educational blocks and student apartments at the Swansea University Bay Campus. St Modwen's half share of the rental income will be around £2m in 2015, rising to £3m the year after. It is also progressing with the redevelopment of the 468-acre former MG Rover side at Longbridge, and the first 150,000 sq ft has been let out to Marks & Spencer, due for opening in November. On the back of these numbers, analysts at Numis have upgraded their forecasts, and now expect net asset value to reach 452p a share by November 2015, rising to 501p the year after. St Modwen continues to show its ability to derive value from asset regeneration, and it is sitting on a 6,000 acre land bank. The shares are up from our Tip of the Year (394p 8 January 2015), and trade close to forecast NAV for the year to November 2015 before moving to a discount on forecasts for the following year. Given the significant value still locked away, we stick with our advice. Buy.
Upgraded price target £5.70!
up 281% to 75.4p yielding a pe of just 6! Price to book ratio also attractively low at just above 1. Beat that TEF and RDW!
Yep- stunning set of results I have been expecting. Very strong buy. What a performance.
Never have the few words" better than expectations "which are bandied about become more appropriate
What a set of results!
St Modwen Properties (SMP) has revealed that planning agreements and commercial contracts are now unconditional for the regeneration of its 57-acre joint venture development scheme at New Covent Garden Market. This means that work on the site can start this summer. Not only will the existing market receive a 500,000 sq ft state-of-the art facility over 37 acres, but the remaining area will be developed into 3,000 new homes, 135,000 sq ft of office space and 100,000 sq ft of retail, leisure and new community facilities. The whole scheme is expected to have a gross development value of up to £3bn. This means that St Modwen's half share will be recognised on the balance sheet, and analysts at Numis estimate that this will boost net asset value by around £100m this year, or 45p a share. The broker also reckons that profits will grow by around 80 per cent this year and net asset value by a quarter.