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Interesting article written in seeking alpha last month. Nothing new regards to the court cases Silence has with Alnylam, but interesting comments from the blogger re the Netherlands. As we know Silence has filed suits in the UK, Portugal and the Netherlands with the UK case to start in December.
For the last year since I have been watching Silence, I have always found it strange that US commentators or Equity Analysts on Alnylam's quarterly calls had not mentioned the court cases. I guess it isn't strange that the equity analysts don't mention it as they still suffer from positive bias and want to be on the next quarterly calls. However, this is the first time I personally have seen a US commentator mention the cases. This can only be a good thing for those, myself included, who want Silence to be taken over.
I have also included the recent comments from David Horn CEO, relating to the filing in the Netherlands.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/38002746-denniskneale/5229047-clash-dark-dna-pioneers.
"The third case, however, in the Netherlands, may be the most serious threat against Alnylam. The first two filings are patent-infringement actions, and if Silence wins, Alnylam can keep appealing and delaying. By contrast, Silence filed its third action in the Netherlands (where Alnylam’s Dutch subsidiary holds the Onpattro authorization) for a different Silence patent, EP 3 222 724, and under Dutch case-law, which allows patentees to stop Dutch companies from patent infringement, rather than a pure-bred patent-infringement case. Injunctions granted in such cases are effective in every European country where the Silence patent exists. Thus, it could result in a total ban on sales of the new drug across all of Europe where Silence has patent rights.
That would be a staggering blow to Alnylam’s business. Its first and only approved drug, Onpattro is likely to account for 44% of total revenue in 2023, according to Cowen Research; at Morgan Stanley, the estimate is an overwhelming 75% of sales in 2023. Think about the bet that ALNY is making right now: It risks losing the lifeblood of its business for refusing to pay a rival a pittance in patent fees."
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/206742/silence-therapeutics-s-alnylam-wrangle-takes-a-new-turn-206742.html
Chief executive David Horn Solomon said: "Silence continues to innovate with new, competitive RNAi medicines.
“During 2017 and 2018, the European Patent Office has upheld the validity of our expanding patent estate with the granting of additional patents around our foundational chemical modification IP.
“When companies openly promote new product commercialisation in the face of relevant granted patent rights, Silence Therapeutics will take steps to enforce its patents and protect the historic investment made in its technology."
have just managed to buy 5000 shares at 90p - both showing as sells
current share price severely undervalues the prospects here .
and if theres substance to the takeover - this could be the wobble before the announcement - just like what happened to shire with takeda - see my early postings there
You are certainly sniffing around the right tree IMO
No comments on my takeover speculation...
Anyways, fwiw... Quark Pharmaceuticals are due to report on some testing this quarter which may turn things around.
From Silence...
"Quark holds a licence to Silence's chemical modification technology. Silence is eligible to receive either
approximately 1.5%-4% royalties from Quark (on QPI-1002) plus milestones, or 15% of the clinical,
regulatory and commercial milestone payments and royalties received by Quark from its partner Novartis."
From Quark
"QPI-1002 is the first systemic siRNA drug to enter human clinical trials ...The same molecule QPI-1002...... We anticipate receiving the first interpretative results (FIR) in the fourth quarter of 2018."
http://quarkpharma.com/?p=12506
https://www.silence-therapeutics.com/media/1808/quark-first-patient-dosed-in-phase-3-clinical-trial-for-acute-kidney-injury.pdf
I've thought for over a year that this was going to be taken over and there was option value in the patents alone.
It is binary the either win the case or they don't. All of the RNS's about the patents this year have been positive. The company earned the patents years ago and in their words have been shoring them up recently.
To me, I give it at least a 90% chance that Alnylam has infringed. I have read comments elsewhere that SLN are going after Alnylam as they are closest to commercializing their products. To me, I would suggest that likely there are other biotech companies in the RNAi space that have infringed on SLN patents.
What ever that is worth I have no idea. Given how poorly the share price has performed this year, I figure it could be at least 2X if it goes ok. But who knows, including me, excuse ramp but given the historical share price it could even by 5 or 6X.
Every month or quarter I have been consistently surprised by the poor share price performance and the fact that Alnylam hasn't taken them over already, given Alnylams market cap and cash balance.
The fact that the FT article was referring to other parties, makes me believe that my above assumptions might actually be correct.
Clearly the share price performance argues against my arguments. However given the liquidity and daily traded volume means that the share price can be moving for any number of reasons. Someone buying or selling GBP5000 worth on the close can slam or ramp the price. Its a bit of a joke.
I am not a lawyer or have any knowledge other than investigating this company of biotech.
Comments welcome
atb
i find it difficult to believe the FT would print a story without doing proper due diligence,either that or they've had "a nod" from someone who thinks they know more than us!!
As for the lack of statement from company,it's perfectly feasible that they haven't been approached as yet,hence radar silence when the panel came knocking (as they do after a 10% rise).If the bid is from the states as the article implies,they seem to work on a different agenda,so not beyond the realms of possibility that a bid could surface any day,here's hoping
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/207746/silence-therapeutics-investors-make-some-noise-over-rumoured-us-takeover-interest-207746.html
Interesting timing. Success in court (or by early settlement) would certainly leave SLN cash rich and ripe for t/o. imo
just mentioned on FT alphaville
Perhaps as a member of the magic circle it was just his turn to buy. But I doubt it - too much lolly at stake. That is a confident move & he knows this space
at least some one has confidence. The relentless selling for most of the year, has certainly sapped a lot of confidence.
With the court case in December for this patent infringement, the share price down 40-50% over the past year, and with the ex ceo buying a bucket load one would think there was some option like value here. However I thought that a year ago...so wtfdik
ex CEO tops up large
It is surprising as the court case is circa 2 months away.
It’s called losing money on an AIM stock. It happens. It might also go up.
Fingers crossed for some good upward movement here. I am hopeful that this is a sign the IP matters are now resolved.
No placing required any time soon then: unaudited net cash balance at January 2nd, 2018 was �43 million ($58 million) compared to �29.8 million at 30 June 2017.
Sssshhh .... nobody knows....
Thanks for posting that Proactive Investors link, jupiternmars. Good to see Ali starting to tease the capital markets day content. Hopefully, anticipation of that can sustain the excitement that has been built through the Arrowhead stake, all the patents rns's, the court case and the new chair.
Silence is golden....
This morning... what is their not to like ?? BUY
Better a little late than never ! This is going places...
Let's be seeing you today...
That's a big trade !!!