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indeed roger all that Tim B. think scene 2 is about to start. they just need to clear the bodies off the stage at the end of scene 1.
You chaps give afa effingwhatever too much credit, this racist ruse is no other than sister sid doin it for her sistersquirrels. Let's hope act 3 scene 2 hurries along as the sid and afa show is barely b grade. SLE 2.0 is a no brainer as an investment, ie if you don't have a brain don't invest.
indeed bluerill, as well as the faux afro - spreche - 'mr. bluerill' 'mr. alaric' etc ( arguably, as I think you previously suggested, racist) and appalling syntax, we have the classic squirrel negative innuendo, dressed up as just harmlessly telling us about how the SP has performed in the past...so what's new here ffs? you know Afamefuna, you're going to need to do a lot better than this to survive on this board.
but you see Afamefuna, that's not true is it? You didn't ask why the SP ' HAD only ever GONE down', you asked 'why DOES the SP only ever GO down'. you might think that's just a bit grammatical semantics but it isn't, is it? the alternative meaning, which you clearly intended by using the present tense, strongly implied that the SP would continue to go down. So you just got it badly wrong again, as you did with Sun Trust. Why would anyone listen to you now - you've been on this board barely 2 months and got 2 fundamental things about this share badly wrong. tut tut.
I fancy the effort to make that post appear authentic - I don't know, what are these Secret Squirrels going for? Nigerian Del Boy with a hint of The Inbetweeners, I reckon - must have burned more than a few brain cells. My favourite - and there are so many to choose from! - is sticking 'ever' and 'done' into a new compound word. Classic squirrelling.
a simple answr to a simple quetion from you mr alaric. at the time of my question all the share price had everdone was go down and i was asking why. you are very very correct in saying my question is now 6 weeks old and shows you grasping at breaths to try and be making somthing from such old statments. 6penny upwards. very good for those lucky fellows who bought 6 weeks a go. 1penny a week a very very good making of money. will the value break through 30penny this week or will they take there money now.
...Afamefuna. your maiden post on 14th December - 'mr bluerill this looks like fantastic information but why does the share price only ever go down. explain that to me please.'
SP on 14th December - 23p
SP on Friday 25 Jan - 29p
so you were only 26% wrong in just over a month - care to explain that?
half way
Oil blocks renewal: Stakeholders raise concerns over 42 leases
Despite Friday’s assurance by the Federal Government that there were no irregularities in the ongoing renewal of over 42 oil licences, stakeholders in the oil and gas sector, yesterday, raised the alarm over the ongoing exercise.
https://guardian.ng/news/oil-blocks-renewal-stakeholders-raise-concerns-over-42-leases/
thanks bluerill for the most elucidating exposition of the recent market in our shares. i found the passage on 'san leon 2.0' fascinating and it is of course the point that our furry friends continue to miss (or at least chose to ignore). i repeat it here since for me it is absolutely key to understanding why the past for san leon is just that now. 'it is absolutely not uncommon for a company, even one as small as SLE, to have a '2.0' as it were. In fact, it's pretty much as common as dirt. Happens all the time, up and and down the market cap scale, and side to side across various sectors. In the end, if the story is sound, the capital is still there as it clearly was when Oisin brought the Mart Resources/OML18 deal to Martin Hughes at Toscafund'
All reads well and makes a lot of sense so - Amen to that...good weekend all.
(cont)
didn't really finish properly....
first i meant '(although many of US are looking at this chart and seeing the beginning of a breakout)'
otherwise, the unifying theory here - including the reasonably big block that Manu cites of 350k or so - the circumstantial evidence is that a buyer or buyers of some consequence (volume has been steadily increasing of late) continue to support and advance this share price, in all likelihood on the back of the buyback story and improving fundamentals, all the while taking out various sellers who either don't know or don't care. And honestly, that is as strong a reassurance that the market understands the opportunity here as shareholders could hope for. A more acute rally into early Feb would be great, but its absence is in no way an indication of the market not taking the company seriously or in some way, rejecting the importance of what the it is likely about to embark on.
The reality is as I've described. Overall, this remains a largely a 'show-me' situation, where the market will continue to see sellers who simply refuse to believe this will happen until it actually does, or in fact have no idea of any pending corporate action at all and just see a 25% rally in 6 weeks, 13% this year, and are selling some every day at what some traders will see as the top end of the share price's range (although many of his are looking at this chart and seeing the beginning of a breakout).
That last point is interesting. In fact, the trading this year - at least 'on book' - has been sellers hitting bids. Normally that is associated with a falling share price, but ours has quietly ground its way to just below 30p. This is strongly suggestive of a material buyer patiently building a position as he sits on the bid every day and gets hit by various sellers who, as I've described, can have any number of innocent reasons for selling shares every day - just plain ignorance of a pending buyback chief among them. This is not bizarre at all. In fact, in my own 30 years, I have seen similar 'irrational' behaviour in the trading of many companies into possible/likely corporate actions, particularly small caps.
Decent volume today with some lumpy trades For SLE
987k
With apologies BR - its my alzheimers...I did actually mean to respond then FRUS;s comment came thru and I had to reply to that...then the Spaniels needed exercise...then my post was deleted...etc etc...no slight intended at all...and whilst I appreciate your 'help understand how markets work' bit, having commuted to the city for 30 years and ran a relatively successful trading business, i'm probably ok on that front...
I have also, in many of my posts, suggested it is understandable why the SP may take some time to reach its final resting place...however, my understanding of the way AIm works is that it is usually about 3 years ahead of reality...here we have the bizarre situation of a SBB about to happen with all the maths that have been discussed below...and still someone / an institution who knows seems happy to sell down their holding...it is utterly bizarre and unlike anything I have seen before. Which is why I remain puzzled, despite your comments.
Yeah bye frus. You know I honestly think, after lord knows how many posts, you're finally doing the right thing.
I have to say PC, I for one continue to find you a quirky little egg. For instance, if you go back a bit before you first referred to 'sle 2.0', I think you'll find that i had coined that term in a long post responding to the most recent squirrel attack. 'Funny thing to do', I thought, 'flattering even.' But I couldn't shake the feeling that maybe you were trying to wind me up a little. Fast forward to today, and, not for the first time, I pen a long 2-part post, primarily to help you understand better how markets work and how and why the shares are being valued the way they are, and.....nothing. Now I certainly don't need thanks or recognition from anyone (though I admit it sounds like I am pitching for some), but it is certainly true that my post was content-rich and directly addressed much of your confusion about the share price. I would have thought your natural next post would be to ask me a follow-up question or 2 rather than the relatively fluffy exchanges you posted. In fact, at the risk of sounding paranoid, I'm pretty sure you have never addressed me directly, though I have often help clear issues up for you. Odd, though harmless, I'm sure....
So, in the spirit of never giving up, let me clear up another misperception you seem to be labouring under: it is absolutely not uncommon for a company, even one as small as SLE, to have a '2.0' as it were. In fact, it's pretty much as common as dirt. Happens all the time, up and and down the market cap scale, and side to side across various sectors. In the end, if the story is sound, the capital is still there as it clearly was when Oisin brought the Mart Resources/OML18 deal to Martin Hughes at Toscafund.
MMM my rather non-inflammatory post seems to have been removed by big brother...ho hum...didn't think i was being that unpleasant...
I would take you to task for one thing Frus - i am a genuine person (if that's a bit like Pinnochio I want to be a real boy?!) but my head hasn't been turned by anyone on this board. All I have written has been done to share the - admittedly small - amount of knowledge I have about SLE and join it with my broader understanding of financial markets. I have read with much interest the bears view and the bulls view...but it would be a strange person indeed who invested in anything on the basis of what he or she had written. I have frequently used the term SLE 2.0, I believe its completely apposite for the situation / investment we have in front of us. And as I alluded to yesterday, it is extraordinary that SLE has a 2.0...most companies would have folded by now,,,I guess we have the deep pockets of Tosca to thank for that.
And let me be the first to say: don't let the acorns hit you on the way out
I really do believe that your a genuine person but I think you've had your head turned like many others, by the virus that now infects this bb. I've said this before and should have stuck to it, I wont be posting again its just a complete waste of my time. Obviously people only want to here how good their investment is.
and another thing:
There is also a lot of of other developments going on at the company, which are obviously more focused operationally: our first new well in forever, our operating partner's dramatically improved finances, pipeline development to separate the company from reliance on Shell, opex increases to help improve daily production and reduce leakages, etc. As those operating improvements begin to become even more evident, suddenly going into the market and building a position, even at higher prices than now, starts to look very attractive indeed, particularly with the company by your side every day showing its support for your holding.
In other words, with the help of continuing improving fundamentals, there is a high likelihood of a dramatic, if delayed, reaction to the share buyback!
As Alaric touched on, I'm also informed that the rules for a buyback of this size for AIM companies are now covered by the Takeover Code but the text I have found so far is somewhat shall we say, interpretable. As a result PC, answering your questions of the 'how' the buyback can/will be conducted and the 'why' isn't the market taking the share price higher now are simultaneously non-trivial and related.
The bottom line, before I even get started, is to stop getting caught up with why the shares are not moving yet and simply let the next few weeks play out, but here are some thoughts: Firstly, as evidenced by this board, there is likely enough skepticism in the market that there will be any kind of capital return in the first place - even though there is compelling evidence already discussed here that it is on course - to keep punters at bay. Second, as per above, it is not clear how the company can/will conduct itself mechanically every day in the market. It's quite possible from my reading of the 'rules' thus far that there may not the usual restrictions on volume and/or price, thus putting the company in a powerful position to possibly drive the share price materially higher if it so chooses. As I myself pointed out long ago, the free float is severely constrained, making a buyback of this scale an even more compelling proposition. However, I could be wrong about the rules, and even if I am right, the company may well not choose this course, at least not initially. They may choose to be less aggressive, providing bids in the order book at various levels, for say the first few weeks/month, to see if there are latent sellers in the market that they can take out at modest prices. An attractive backdrop for anyone getting long today as it significantly improves a buyer's risk/reward to be sure, but hardly sexy.
i hope the picture is starting to become clearer: because this is such an unusual situation (£125m developing commodity companies do not usually embark on material capital returns. Though, for many of us, this is a tribute to SLE's impressive cash generation, now and going forward, the weirdness factor of seeing such a small company at this stage of its development - particularly compared to the parlous state of the balance sheets many of its peers - is, for now, probably also keeping some smarter punters, who are otherwise focused on such special situations, on the sideline for now), because the small cap AIM market is sparsely populated (ie., not enough smart money), because of SLE's history and the caution and cynicism it has produced (I have never hidden from this fact) and because the rules of engagement for any buyback are unknown, the share price is not reacting as some might hope. Yet.
More soon as i continue to root around......
'OK, shall we move on from the petty insults and school yard banter'. trust me PC01, there is a little bit of method in this madness. am not sure you were with us during the 'hyena' days referred to by mclean91 below: it was nigh impossible then to get a considered discussion on any topic, as the trolling was endemic. much cleaned up now as you see. re the SBB i think your maths is about right so it's an incredibly tight market and no way I'm selling (i know a handful of other quite serious holders here and they're not selling under £1). am ashamed to say i don't have a totally clear understanding of SBB rules for AIM companies, whether under takeover code or Cos Acts. i know you touched on this the other day.
OK, shall we move on from the petty insults and school yard banter and talk about how SLE will buy the $10mm of shares....it doesnt exactly keep me awake at night as its a first class problem but again - for fear of boring you all to death - I want to know how its going to buy £7.7mm (at current FX rates) or 25mm shares...Tosca and Capital own c 70%...Midwestern what 15%? There's 500 million shares in issue....on the back of my envelope outside of the 3 largest shareholders that leaves 75mm shares. Are we really saying the company is going to buy 1 in every 3 of shares outstanding?
What am i missing here - is it really that simple? Because it doesn't make sense to me that the SP still languishes at 29.5p if the company is going to buy 1/3rd of the free float week starting 8th November?
Confused.com.
That cellar of gender reassigned squirrels all sweating over hormones and handbags is something I prefer not to contemplate, (prefer that cellar full of pinot and other good juice) ..... Agreed re syntax, everyone suffers fatfingers or predictive text issues but the squirrels lack basic cerebral ability, I am surprised that cretin B7 could actually spell "LOL"! Have a good day all.