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Rather relieved and quite happy to get out at 4750p this morning.
A tad negative !
I sold at £47.33 and got back in again at £45.30, so far its dropped back almost immediately after each leg up, this has been one of the best traders around for months now and with no stamp duty to pay and a very tight spread it beats AIM shares every time. I am hopeing for at least another three ups and two downs before Takeda eats my lunch.
luddite:
Yes, that is what I also like to try to do! Can you please remind what qualifies Shire purchases to be exempt from 0.5% Stamp Duty? Thanks.
paradigm I sold again this morning at £46.49 and I am now dithering about hopeing to buy back again but at the moment at £46.17 I cannot decide if it will drop further or bounce up again. The stamp duty exemption is of course because SHP is an Irish company listed in London and exempt just like many other great FTSE100 traders like IAG and Glen etc, sod the AIM, this is where proper amounts of money can be made with less risk of losing the lot.
Thanks luddite. Exemption from SD certainly makes short-term trading more attractive. I see a listing (dated 2014) of SD exempt UK listed companies at:
http://www.dividend.org.uk/uk-shares-without-stamp-duty/
In spite of all past price history being available it is always so difficult to extrapolate just a few days ahead, especially in these uncertain times! I am hesitating to invest in Shire again at the moment unless the price drops significantly - I do not want to be locked-in for the takeover.
Good luck in trading !
are people here not thinking of accepting the takeda offer?
"sod the AIM, this is where proper amounts of money can be made with less risk of losing the lot"
Quite right, I have made dribs and drabs of cash trading AIM shares, but virtually none buying and holding. I am now convinced that AIM is just beyond reasonable risk and full of unscrupulous CEO,s how are only in for lifestyle reasons.
ali fish, of course taking the offer is a done deal its already decided by the big players. all that remains is for the last hurdle on 22 Nov EU clearance unless its delayed even further, there is a 6% upside to £48.72 at todays Takeda price of 4319yen so market sentinment not giving us much more room for arbitrage but still a better bet than many. I dont want Takeda shares but I am hopeing to milk the ups and downs right to the last minute then sell the lot at what I hope will be something over £49 a share. I have just bought back in again at £45.65, I don't think the EU will block Tekeda but you never know, its a gamble.
I am an idiot , god knows how I ever make money at this game by not keeping up with the news, the EU conditionally cleared it on 20 Nov so what we have now is a pure arbitrage which alters my perception of the risk and means I will be looking to double up on what I already bought if we get dips below the £45.70 level.
Bloomberg predicting 2% bounce for jap stocks on 22nd Nov so I am hopeing Takeda gets some benefit which should raise SHP over £46.40 sometime during the day hopefully a spike up at 8am at which point I will sell again unless it looks like momentum carrying it a worthwhile amount higher.
thank you luddite for your previous answer- i have now decided to sell as well but can you tell me when is the deadline before i need to sell-is the sp likely to rise still before the deadline?
Ali, the vote by the Takeda shareholders to pass the deal is the 5th Dec (ie early hours tomorrow). As long as that goes through I believe the deal will complete around the 8th January. The dates and details can all be found online
ali fish , there is no need to worry about getting stuck with Takeda , you have the option to sell right up to the deadline in January, I sold this morning again but now kicking myself as I could have done better but even though the arbitrage margin has narrowed right down there is still a percent or two to be made so if the price gets down below £46.40 I will be back in for the last squeeze of the lemon. Its all now down to the Takeda share price and yen/$/£ exchange rate movements. Takeda is on its bottom so any sign of a santa rally or improvement in sentiment to Takeda could give another turn, on the other hand if Takeda drops at the rate it has been since 27 Sept it could mean todays price is the best, its all just a gamble as far as I am concerned. I am a little sceptical of TA but look at the chart back since 2012, could be its due another upturn ?
FYI, I make the value of the takeover worth £48.40 at the moment, with Takeda shares at 4240, yen exchange rate 144 and US$ rate 1.28. This compares to the current Shire share price of £46.94, which is now only about 3% below the full offer
Takeda tanked by 5.3% towards the end of the Japanese trading day, I am expecting a similar markdown when SHP opens this morning, on the plus side if there is one its that we will have a new trading range to work in which should give increased volatility. I must admit I did not see yesterdays Takeda gap down coming even though the overall market was having a down day. The,market sentiment is now focussing on the deal and its financing rather than the various country and shareholder approvals, Takeda are offering 25% less than the failed Abvie offer, the directors of SHP do not have shareholder value very much in mind.
.......on the other hand as a trader I will be looking for a dead cat bounce opportunity, there were quite a few to choose from yesterday.
..... on the other hand what the hell is going on at Barclays, as of today they will not allow purchases only sells, anyone know why ? Other brokers like IG etc are continuing to allow buy and sell.
the sp is up today-luddite do you think it is worth waiting for a bit to see if one cen get a better price when selling?
ali1947fish, I hope you sold at £46.80 before todays pull back? If not I am betting there will be another chance to sell at around the £47 level or even higher before 8 January , I would not want to sell my few remaining SHP at the £45.31 I am being quoted. Barclays are not even listing SHP anymore when I try to buy, they seem to be just offering to sell, but its still possible to go long or short via CFD or options. At £45.30 I am tempted to go for a small punt long using a CFD to close at £46.80.
Lud, totally agree. Today seems to be in reaction to fridays late RNS about the delisting and the selling by institutions as a result. Personally I would now hold and take the value of the bid, part cash and part shares. Takeda shares seem bombed out and will hopefully recover over the medium term to give a nice profit. GLA, I am looking forward to my first direct Japanese share holding!
I have been very wary about ending up with Takeda shares and was 'relieved' to sell my entire Shire holding.
I have a Canadian share holding, originally in BRASCAN, which has now developed into at least four separate Brookfield company holdings with dividends paid in Canadian dollars. Check what your bank charges to handle and convert foreign dividend cheques or other forms of inpayments. At least I can hold a dialogue in English with Brookfield Registrars - some holdings have DRIPS open to foreign investors, others do not. Things would be fine if it were not for the high bank charges - anyone found a workable way round this?
thaqn you lud- i have not sold disappointed with the sp action today- has the rns about shares being moved to an uncleared index or something like that anything with todays' retrace-no idea what it means? will wait for a better price I hope!
Para, best way round it is to have your shares held in a nominee account, then all the divs are converted and paid to your cash account with the nominee in sterling, no charges whatsoever. I have a few US stocks and it isn’t a problem at all and no extra charges. Regards
Thanks for the suggestion Super. I have accounts (ISA & Share Dealing) with two of the lowest cost platforms and they both have a 1.5% Fx charge. My Canadian dollar dividends are quite large and the existing bank charges would actually be lower. Is there a UK platform which truly has no charges associated with foreign holdings/dividends? There is also the question of regular W8-BEN submissions to qualify for the withholding tax exemptions.