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Maverick, I'm not seeing an 8p offer here.
I'll eat humble pie if I'm wrong, but the red flags are all over this.
If there is an upbeat RNS regarding interested parties, which Neil has referred to, then of course it may spike and lure in a few folk thinking they are going to win big, but the outcome is always the same unfortunately.
No one will be happier if its 8p than me Maverick.
BUT not a chance.
Its more likely to be 2p or administration unfortunately.
I'd be really happy with 3p but I still can't see it as they are in desperate trouble as clearly evident by the need to sell so quickly and the SP sits at 1.70p
@Mr M I am expecting 8p. The banks are supportive of the business as it is a class leader with almost 10% market share. Safe Style needs money to weather the storm. They will likely receive a cash injection……..hence the Sky story confirming multiple parties were interested………“As part of discussions, the group has engaged with a number of third parties who have expressed interest in investing in the group,"
Bid to come today for their assets?
See RNS
Spread is tightening, should be a correction on the cards soon. They is nothing lost here, active discussions in play..
If I buy at 2p and can successfully get out at 2.5p that makes me 25% on my money. The flip side of the coin is I lose the lot.
Mathematically doesn't look worth the risk, unless you are predicting to be getting out around 4-5p. Then I totally get why you would consider the risk, but may as well go red or black at casino.
Spread tightening up and the buys are being logged correctly…….nice move coming
As I said yesterday [before I bought at 2.19] DOH!
Be carful of the spread and now they have put it around 45% [as stated on LSE] and actual is about 15% but that's slot to ne down once you hit the buy button.
Let's hope it does an ITS and comes back down once the buys come in and we have even a semi positive RNS regarding a sale.
This share definitely feels like a Goose, Maverick.
I hop you are correct Maverick but the spread is 56% which is why it's so high to buy but 1.60s to sell.
Let's see it settle down and hopefully hold in the 2ps
Buy price 2.05 - I believe some will be adding knowing that some large amounts were mopped up at 2.5p and the MMs used to the spread to fill those orders.
I think you are right maverick and Latin
@Laura - both are buys and that would someday go to explaining why there was a shake to fill those orders. I think a few nervy ones did panic and sold…… tomorrow I’m thinking we see some sense returning
It may well be MMs been dropping to fill these orders?
2 of them just appeared from yesterday
Agree about the purchases, they have not lost much in the scheme of things. I will say I think they bought in good faith - it was CEO, CFO, and 3 x NED - so 5 purchases. Before I sold, I actually had more than the CFO. Not hard at 2p!!!! I think this rapidly accelerated, if you had followed it, what did for them was unseasonable hot September. They had already bought by then, but had a v poor month. If they needed cash flow from this, suddenly they didn't have it. As soon as covenants are breached it was game over, with such a shrewd lender, who I think wanted to be the owner.
Echoing Yvellken post.
Fortune does favour the brave. This was a reasonable proposition to begin with.
As i keep repeating. September and october are 2 of the best mi ths normally they will have expected a turnaround unfortunately the market is 20% down in sept and looking like 30% in october. The directors would have exo3cted a sales spike and instead they got a collapse
There are few interested parties already talking, so must have approached comp before RNS meaning they are very interested. Remember MIRI not so long ago hit 0.9p with little hope, then came Microsoft deal 1p - 5p!
Maverick,
The marketing campaign was a hail mary to get sales moving towards 200 mil, but given their profit warning, that clearly didn't materialise as they are now deep into a RCF and forecasting to breach their covenants.
Directors buys mean absolutely nothing in this scenario.
Check out their remuneration and compare the value of what they bought vs what they have milked out of this business, and what they will continue to milk when it changes hands. They do it as a way of trying to cover themselves when the company goes under.
They will just put their hands up and say "we did everything we could, we even bought the shares as we believed the company would continue"
Bear in mind their employees will also likely have shares, and will also potentially lose the lot, so it's a "we're in it together" scenario.
Difference is a window fitter earns about 30k working their nuts off, whereas a director earns around 300k.
It was 10 weeks ago when purchased first and they would have known it was in trouble then im sure.
There had been a profit warning and the SP had crashed to 12p!
BUT I take your point, and I'm surprised they purchased if it was in such bad shape.
It was £46 000 in total with 3 transactions made in 1 week, so quite a sizeable purchase by them.
I think things have accelerated south faster than expected since the 1st August but let's hope you are correct and there is at least some positive news from potential buyers to at least give us a nice spike.
Chill guys it will go up - most prob some holders are getting margined out with the fall having bought yesterday and feel they got spiked. Those same sellers yesterday will be buying. There was something like just over 1m spent on advertising a few months ago I believe and the market cap now is like 1.5m. I go on about directors having bought just 6 weeks go for well over 10p and I can’t help but believe nobody would do that knowing their business was in bad shape. They will navigate this sticky[period and will trim costs and no doubt restructure.
The real value is probably in the customer database as this drives the marketing efficiency. The value of this will not be identfied in the balance sheet ( other than potentially part of the goodwill value) and from personal experience administrators don;t really understand the value of these databases. ( I was part of a team that bought the assets from an administrator for less than £100K and got hundreds of thousands of customer details. We built up the company and sold it a few years later for Multi millions.
Cheers LV1991
Only hope now is a positive RNS [even with some temporary positive news] to get out above 2.50p but the lower it goes the less likely any spike will even hit that.
If we drop to 1.70p even a massive 50% spike will only see us on or around 2.50p.
I genuinely can't see this surviving now [in terms of PIs being OK long term] but the vultures will be circulating to buy it out of administration so at least the staff will be OK.
This is always important. Its their livelihood after all and it's only are gambling addiction with these distressed AIM shambles shares haha
Best of luck all.
Dartron/Neil, I sold out yesterday, sadly not at the top of the spike but at 2.95p, which wasn't too bad after my large double down at around 2.2p. Was tempted like Neil to buy back in for another spike today, but have been waiting to see if it would go sub 2p and then when it did the wide spread put me off. I hope you do get a nice spike Neil and get a quick 40% swing, but the direction at the minute seems to be one way. Anyway fortune favours the brave and this business can be turned round, so here's hoping
There are far more favourable gambles out there Neil, with far lower risk. I think it was the lure of how large the upside was here, had it worked out ok, or if it does spike up to 5p. But its a pure gamble now, not trading or investing. Best of luck.
The share price is also a red flag isnt it, seems the selling is relentless. All those delayed trades people wrongly assumed were buys. No one wants this. A couple of MM's are sub 0.5p now.