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Thanks for the encouragement, Al.
In some ways, I can argue we already had "game-changing news" when a Sederma rep confirmed that they were launching this year. Moreover, it was also confirmed that the first royalties will be by the end of the year. The CB overhang has killed the sentiment on this front.
We don't know the scale of the launch; all we know is that the VIPs have had early access and account for about 80% of Matrxyl's revenues. I think it's likely there will be a progressive launch. So, a firm date for the launch would certainly nail it as far as transformative, especially if it arrived with Croda's forecast that quashed the foolish notion some BBM have that there's a 70% chance of SBTX going belly up! But wait, there's another game changer. Do you know who told us that the UMG launch is worthless and will not yield accretive value?
I expect a forecast that blows that assumption out of the water. When I have no idea how quickly SBTX will be given the data, I give them the confidence to announce it. They don't want a repeat of the AxisBiotix forecast, so I expect caution. I am not concerned about what the share price does in the short term; I firmly believe the upside far outweighs the downside, but I understand why some people will wait for firm evidence of what I expect.
However, let's assume I am correct about the UMG sales being highly accretive, and we get a forecast confirming this; there's a good chance the shares will move higher than the fear of the downside figure. If I were SA, I'd announce the forecast ASAP because it would reduce the dilution on the remaining CB conversion.
Toying has already provided links to early Once Heel balm launches. That alone is encouraging given the size of the estate and market potential. Remember, these are all revenues we did not expect this year.
And of course, as soon as we get confirmation that all of the CBs have been converted and reside in safe hands and not flipped, we will very likely see positive sentiment return-we have seen how quickly SBTX shares recover when the dark cloud has lifted.
Looks like Modi are full steam ahead with our products. Posted 21/3/24
https://www.instagram.com/aldawaacare/p/C4xMdQER1pk/
https://www.al-dawaa.com.sa/en-about-aldawaa/
À couple of points. From the RNS,
"Long term shareholders, including Tyndall Investement Management who have invested in the Company since IPO, have agreed to purchase the shares directly from Macquarie Bank".
So, as it says "including", we can't assume Tyndall have all the 7m shares.
However, as has been reasonably posted, Tyndall and others will have paid a premium to the 6.5p. So whether or not all participants in the purchases from Macq Bank are LTHs, they won't be selling below what their purchase price was. Whether this purchase price was 10p or somewhat lower is important.
Large delayed trade from Friday just popped up. 1M shares.
Hi Elrico,
Really great to hear from you, and thankyou for a balanced positive post. I certainly respect the work which you put in.
Another positive for holding is that Tyndall now have a large holding we would have full transparency if they wanted to say offload a wedge as they would have to release a holdings RNS, after any percentage change. Probably me being rightly suspicious as in the past and with other companies I've seen plenty of fund managers offload a portion if it generated a decent return just to keep their portfolio balanced. Can be an issue with any additional funds raise via stock, as companies tend to ask the larger current holders first, and some large holders do have internal regulation whereas they never become over exposed in any individual holdings, so if asked to take more often will but not for a very long period, either selling later to other big players which may or may not be as "safe hands", or gently easing onto the market. We've all seen stocks where this "overhang", as its referred too can delay any further price rises until sale fully completed.
What time period do you see before the first bit of game changing news is confirmed. Know patience is a virtue but it certainty tests even the most resolute of investors here.
Al, You seem to be confusing the Macquarie conversion with the price of an existing institution that has no history of flipping its shares. I would assume that Tyndall acquired them at around the 10p mark. The share recently hit 14p, so it could have been higher or lower. However, this is irrelevant because Tyndall is clearly in it for the long haul, as are Seneca and Unicorn. Hopefully, they will consider investing more. As I have said before, the downside is limited; the upside is multibag territory. The only question for the investor sitting on the side is, do they think they can get the shares at a much lower price while risking a recovery on the CBs being handed over to diamond hands. IMHO, I would not risk 5p for 30p >> it really is that simple.
More abuse I see, Some peeps only see the worst whereas it also means nice, beautiful and fair. Its also fair discussion on potential share price action in the foreseeable. Its also a surname used in the states.
You know tyndall are a long term investor and yet insist on scaremongering. We all see you for what you are, you know this right. Go try and spook somewhere else. Btw, who in their right mind names themselves after a sunken invader of british islands.
Today we will see if they start to sell any of their new 7M shares bought at 6.5p. Good to see the confidence of investors believing they will hold onto the stock. As stated previously I'm of the opposite opinion that many fund managers cant resist an easy profit without over spooking the market.
The only GCSE subject applicable to SBTX recently is Drama!
Perhaps the question should be GCSE English, as forecasts are often a work of fiction? ;)
Hi PG, agree with your summation. Regarding the optimism for the Umesh Modi deal, whilst I can't speak for elrico i can understand his optimism and confidence best summed up in this fictional GCSE Maths question, but as Manuel would say "I know nothing".
Maths GSCE Exam Question
We have two different market gurus who have vastly different views over the short to mid-term risk reward of Company A as opposed to Company B.
Guru UX is a strong supporter of Company A which has been forecasting the release of a game changing sugar substitute for a number of years but should be launching sometime in 2024 via an unnamed US Partner, who has achieved final scale-up, once regulatory hurdles have been cleared. Company A has also recently announced a deal with an Indian Company for the manufacture and marketing of their clinically proven Weight Management ingredient that is to go into a number of brand new products aimed primarily at the Indian market and expected to launch Jun 24. The Indian Company has 2,300 employees and sells over 800 products to over 82 countries but very few are to do with weight management. The Indian Company has produced a Business Case that suggests Company A can expect revenues of £1.2M in Year 1 rising to £6M by year 5 for an ingredient that contributed to last recorded revenues of £351K for H1 23.
Guru Manuel is a strong supporter of Company B which has been forecasting the release of a game changing skin product ingredient since 2021 but will be launching 2024 as confirmed by the FTSE 100 partner following the conclusion of Clinical Trials by early Jun 24. Company B has also recently announced the launch (Mar 24) of their newly acquired clinically proven Foot Balm product via a manufacture and marketing deal with an Indian Partner aimed primarily at the Indian market with named secondary markets across Asia and Africa. The Indian Company has over 10,000 employees, 1200 of which are directly involved in marketing and sales and are already familiar and experienced in selling similar medical products. Whilst the Indian partner will also have produced a Business Case with forecast sales the figures have not been released, Company B prefers to wait for more concrete figures once feedback from their extensive sales force has been received but last recorded revenues for the Foot Balm products for FY 24 was £1.86M
Assuming that full year revenue for the Company A weight management ingredient is the same as the additional revenue forecast from their Indian Partner at £1.2M (£2.4M representing 100% uplift for Year 1) you are required to produce two estimates for Company B’s revenue forecasts from their Indian Partner, one based on Company A’s optimistic figures for year 1 and year 5, with a second pessimistic forecast based on 50% of Company B’s foot balm revenue. You are to ignore the likelihood that Company B’s Partner’s sales force is likely 10 times the size of Company A’s sales force for the purpose of this e
Hi Bazzaman, I appreciate your feedback and have endeavoured to maintain an impartial tone, minimizing emotional expression as it is not characteristic of my approach; it's not who I am. I do my best to respect the readers' perspective, which is essential, upholding a duty to remain objective. I believe I do this for the most part. Regarding the CB funding issue, I expressed my concerns about its perceived high cost and the implications of the conversion price, aiming for a balanced critique. I cannot see how you could not draw this conclusion, even with a respectful tone.
I must clarify that adopting a confrontational stance towards the board contradicts my principles; I find this type of conduct leaves readers open to alleging I am allowing my ego to play a role. I believe it to others, as it does not align with my professional ethos.
Regarding TW's comments, if you are referring to the twin bearcasts released today, I chose not to listen to either. My decision to disengage from TW's commentary on SBTX is final, out of respect for his expressed desire to cease mutual criticisms.
While my attempts at humour may occasionally be misconstrued as contentious, it has not been my intention. I hold TW in high regard and respect his perspectives, yet I feel his critique of SBTX may have exceeded reasonable bounds. This is not to dismiss some of his valid points, with which I concur to an extent. However, the persistent and intense scrutiny has become overwhelming, impacting my well-being and leading me to conclude my involvement in this discourse, which had become heated at times by both parties. Furthermore, I feel TW integrity is questioned when it should not. I believe him to be honest in terms that he does not use his influence to pickpocket investors. I could go into great detail regarding what bothers me. Hellfire; I could write a book. I might!
Regarding the remaining CB, I must exercise caution, as any speculation on this topic could be misreported to the NOMAD again. Speculating on a significant subject with limited information and permutations could lead to unintended consequences. I previously issued a warning due to a speculative remark, which was misunderstood as a double bluff. Therefore, I choose not to provide further speculation on the remaining CB at this time. Speculating serves no purpose.
I'd prefer you email me in future, or ask awkward questions via the Substack portal.
Tw does not show his subs respect, that bs. He regularly insults us via his bc or on his forum. Obviously bell end donsnt subscribe he just has his usual agenda working. I dont believe Tw trash talks to buy lower, that i do not agree with. However, it was Tw that set unleashed a placing rumour without naming a source. The timeline for this was laid out for us this eveing by elrico whom wrote a fairly balanced update. I sense a tinge of frustration as well as criticism of himself. I do wish Sa would get back to discussions with him or even Tw. We need to know the finer details behind the recent m&a and maybe we can understand why the hell elrico is so bloody confident in the modi deal. He tries to spell it out, i'm not seeing it though. Does anyone else understand his confidence?
The tyndal placing of the cb does remove a large block of share that could otherwsie be flipped, that is good news. We need a home for the remainder and then we are off to the races. Come on Sa, cough up the modi forecast, it will provide evidence for elricos confidence and limit the dilution if his confidence isnt mislplaced. At the moment everyone is listening to tw whom thinks its worthless, even though he was wrong about the modi m&a not bing a factor in the cavi note.
RNS today from SA says;
"This conversion means that £0.71m of the £1.6m we drew down for the acquisition of Dermatonics has converted. We appreciate the continued support we have received from the shareholders who have been with us since IPO. We see this as a validation of what we have achieved so far and the ongoing strategy to build scale and financial strength."
What about the remaining £0.89m then, how is that going to be resolved?
I'm not sure Elric that your analysis tonight covers this or provides a balanced view. Easy for you to dismiss TW's comments and observations today but even you must have some concerns over this whole funding saga.
Looking back through the RNS's you can see that Acne study results have slipped from end of Q1 to end of April, so no update until May probably.
No Sales forecasts from UMG as you rightly say and eagerly awaited.
Croda later in the year (hopefully), but who knows when.
When we get dates from SA they are always missed, so he keeps quiet instead.
Lots of unanswered questions IMHO but I'm still here and added to my holding as 2025 can't be any worse than what we have had so far in 2024.
GLA
What is the meaning of pomposity.........or even the meaning of crassness?
Agree madabout and well said Clio.
I can remember TW getting wind of a placing (inside information) for another company at 8p and totally lambasted the CEO and that company ended up placing at 2p.
Bel, whilst I generally dislike personal attacks aimed at others but asking madabout to apologise is a bit rich? Especially considering his absolutely disgraceful attitude to others including SA. I also believe there is pretty much always a hidden agenda with TW.
Hi Madaboutmedtech
You said - 'TW doing his usual job of spreading totally unfounded rumours in order to tank the price so he can buy more shares.'
I asked you for proof as I was genuinely interested as to why you would make such a strong statement without saying how you knew this as fact. Saying also that it was TW's 'usual job' to do this suggested that you would have other factual examples to substantiate this?
My question was genuinely made and I'm sure that many on this board, regardless of their personal views on TW, would be interested to your response as to what information or evidence you have?
Hilarious the TW fan boys are out in force again....
Well said Cliostock. Spouts a rumour and then publishes it. To what end? TW was vile towards SA and the CFO but seems to be able to act with impunity.
Can’t believe what I’m reading!
TW spouts a rumour of what would be insider information with no source and that’s OK, but madabout quite rightly points out it could be absolute rubbish and he is expected to offer proof or a public retraction!
Does anyone remember how TW behaved towards SA or is it OK when it supports your own narrative?
Or in the least offer a public retraction of what you have written. I actually think TW often calls it right and does this for a living and has a lot of respect from his subscribers and from myself. Please prove what you have stated or oppologise with the defaming post on TW.
Just because we don't like what someone writes, its wrong to personally attack them on a public forum.
Believe you have overstepped the line this time.
Whoa! madabouttech
if I were you I would remove the post defaming Mr Winnifrith unless of course you can prove such unlikely actions from TW
What proof do you have that TW is buying more shares and spreading unfounded rumours? Please explain.
Happy to see that the institutions have hoovered up that conversion. Better in their hands than market makers and shows the support from institutions is still there. TW doing his usual job of spreading totally unfounded rumours in order to tank the price so he can buy more shares.