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"That was notification of award of contract. (I think I am correct in this -maybe someone knows better)"
There wasn't.
That was notification of award of contract. (I think I am correct in this -maybe someone knows better)
That was put back to Feb and even that I think was not in concrete
"it did say in the tender docs that 'winners' would know by mid January. So something not going to plan then?"
It's important to remember that this is a framework tender - so it's about effectively being 'pre-approved to supply' rather than 'winning' contracts per se...
Framework tenders are notoriously longwinded and can take some time to conclude after the tender has closed - hence I'm not overly worried at the moment. I'm involved in one framework tender where we are now three months post-tender and we've still not signed the framework agreement...
The marketmakers.I'm sure sophisticated and accurate algorithms might be available to buy by retail or at least the folk at Renaissance Technologies will know!
Interesting.Hadn't noticed sbi provided test to release tests too.
Thanks Regulator.Would be a nice extra bump for the company if Jay scored something for the company.
This makes accurate figures redundant.
Who is aware of mid price at any time of execution?
it did say in the tender docs that 'winners' would know by mid January. So something not going to plan then?
"I'm not sure if it has been mentioned the deadline for tenders in interviews?Just out of interest does anyone know by any chance?"
The National Microbiology Framework tender closed at the beginning of December (https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738394145 ). Allowing for standstill, festive season closures, etc. announcements of successful bidders for inclusion should be imminent. Much longer than the end of this week/next week would suggest potential challenges having been raised during standstill, or issues with the conclusion of Framework agreements.
I'm not sure if it has been mentioned the deadline for tenders in interviews?Just out of interest does anyone know by any chance?
let me explains how this works:
- LSE shows a buy if your exec price > current mid and a sell when < mid
- sometimes you are lucky to have a price < mid even if your a buyer
- it's all guesstimate based on mid.
anyone know if they have tendered for all 4 lots or just lot 4, which is mainly the testing?
It would definitely be a nice bonus for sbi if achieved.It’s good news the company aren‘t starting from a position of no previous government work.
Always good to pleasantly surprise than disappoint.I like Justin and his site.He seems like one of the good guys who realise being on the side of the small retail investor is a great future growth market, unlike some .He’s always brings some welcome humour in his podcasts.
Cheers for doing some numbersI‘m rubbish with them and it’s nice to see some ideas of figured.COVID having been a black swan event with no precedent things could take all sorts of different swings and turns in the future imo.
There will be many companies on the supplier list. Any or all of these successful suppliers will then have to take part in a mini tender to win a contract. So even if you make the initial supplier list it does not guarantee any work. That's how I believe it works.
Sorry the liberum broker's note said testing would peak in mid 2021, not increase all year.
So I've been crunching the numbers on SBI. They are currently doing at least 10,500 Covid pcr per day and trying to expand. Say they do 11,000 per day. Doesn't seem like a stretch . That’s about £450k per day in revenue. That is expected to continue for around 6 months at that level and then decrease. Well that's what the broker's note from Liberum predicted and in fact it projected that this number would increase till the end of year so it could be more. Anyway if we stick with 11,000 per day average between now and mid 2021, that’s about £80m revenue in the next 6 months. The Ebitda was approx 27% of revenue last year so you'd think it’s the same or more this year (the Covid testing business has higher margins in total - 46% in the flotation document and that was before economies of scale). The ebitda could easily be 30% of revenue, given that it’s nearly all COVID. For 2021 first half revenue £81m gives ebitda of £24m first 6 months (~30% revenue). Currently share prices is 230p which is approx £175m in market cap. The company’s revenue in the last 6 months of 2020 was £40.5m. ebitda on that would be around £12.5m. That’s a market cap ebitda multiple on second half 2020 of 14. That means that at the same multiple on the first 6 months of 2021, the market cap would be (14 x 24) which is £336m . That would be a share price of 441p. It just depends on how market sees the business going forward.
Bottom line is that Christopher Mills who I believe holds 29% of the co. , probably had a strong conviction for Jay as the perfect man for the job. SBI is a turnaround job with Mr Mills + Harwood Capital coming in. Jay was brought in to steer the ship obviously with much incentives. Also, according to Paul Hill, **********, Mr Mills has yet to sell any shares. Indeed, as far as I am aware, no other institutional Iors who bought in the IPO have sold any of their holding. Hence, I was a bit perplexed when someone asked me "what about the overhang after the IPO" - Ans - since the IIors all bought and no one sold, there is no overhang.
As mentioned, here are the salient juicy bits to look forward to:
- mobile units to community = increase in testing = higher rev
- Feb contract with DHC - very likely to be a formality = wider scope of services to NHS = higher rev
- Leberum (house broker) may adjust broker forecast to assign a follow thru for covid testing in future yrs pass 2022 = SP rerating.
- "We ARE MORE than 10,500 tests a day - but I DON'T want to specific just in case forecasts change. I'd like to beat forecasts" said Jay in proactiveinvestors video (or words to that extent) = tests > 10.5k a day and are going ape = much more rev that brokers forecast for a future TU.
Here is a link to the Powerpoint slides. The audio will be in shares magazine , I think
https://media.moneyam.com/a/2021/01/4-SourceBio-International-V2-Jay-LeCoque.pdf
also on sourcebio website according to email I got
Cheers
Yep.The website's algorithm isn't sophisticated and reliable enough to be used for any kind of even simplistic potential trade data analysis.
Cheers for the interview links and info here and in previous posts.First impression i get is he seems very savvy and a real go getter.
He comes across as a very American CEO (which i guess seems obvious) which is a change for the british markets for a company with sbi's low market cap.
I feel reassured that the ceo is the best man for the job and obviously he can win contracts/network/sell/manage staff all the things you need in a business happening at the same time!
It will be on the website in a week. Stated at the end of the presentation. It was a good presentation although problems with the IT at the start. It is part of the same family(30% owned) as EKF, RENX and VRCI.
Let us know if you find it please. I just had a look at the AJBell site but it's not there.