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…. and the much undervalued 'olderandwiser' of course.
I would echo your sentiments Sambo12 - good to have posters like Agadem, Novykluk, Diversified, Totalnew etc on here it makes a big difference to have posters who are knowledgeable, willing to share and not just looking for an argument. JLP board is similar. WRES on the other hand is awful and don't get me started on GKP, FRR EUA where the know nothing aggressive types hang out - no we are very fortunate to have the bb we have - when the tribe turn up and send it through the roof - we can cash in and look back on the halcyon days before we were rich.
I’d be amazed if we don’t see 40p very soon after deal completion. I think this re rate will be gradual by significant.. next year should be a great one as drilling activities recommence. And best of all funded by large cash flows! All the best and thanks to all the regular contributors here over the past couple of years. Been a difficult road but we are nearly on the home straight.
Diversified, yours is a really decent perspective IMHO!
Your 40p sets a realistic "floor" price value, recognising as you did, that;
* The Seven Energy assets were "distressed" when purchased and extremely under valued!!
* No account is taken of the substantial free-cashflow which will be generated (virtually underwritten by the World Bank) when SAVP resumes production.
* There are over 100 drill targets already identified in Niger. And we all now the historical high percentage of drill success raters achieved there!
* No account is taken of Nigeria's increasing gas demand.
* And still no one seems to know (a) Whether the Severn assets have been producing whilst these protracted negotiations have been ongoing, and if so (b) Who benefits from the substantial cash which will have generated??
GLTALTH's
NK
Assuming we will have 980m shares in circ. following the next tranche. (I won’t share how I came to that as to many variables using vwap)
Seven Energy is being purchased for $260,000,000 or 23p a share.
$74m is 6p in cash
Plus Niger with a risked value by brokers at 11p
My point being, we have a core value of 40p, broker core NAV 44p without taking into consideration the fact that SE was purchased as a distressed asset purchased at a significant discount to NAV.
40p for starters without the prospect of growth and the fact that the asset is significantly undervalued.