Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Sadly, Agadem doesn't even seem to have an account here anymore. A great pity as he was an excellent poster and clearly a very intelligent and good-hearted person (discouraged by the usual unnecessary, nasty posts sadly).
Can I ask that as many Agadem fans as possible give this post a thumbs up? Not to like my post but as simply in an attempt to get him to return.
Many thanks, everyone.
Posted by Sunbed over on ADVFN
'Had a very good call with Camarco today and they have never been as busy as they currently are with work from SAVE. They seem to be receiving new work-stream requests from the company on a pretty much weekly basis. SAVE are still well on track to issue the admission document in H1. From all the intelligence SAVE receive, the pipeline, refineries and operations in Sudan don’t seem to be in any danger from either side in the Sudan civil war. They are full steam ahead ATM with the Petronas RTO.
The O&G conference in SS starts 4 weeks tomorrow and I think we could well see the Ad Doc prior to that with large renewable deals announced and signed at the signing ceremony which I think has been brought forward to Day 1 of the conference on Wednesday 14th June - I think.'
Why is agadem no longer posting?
Has he been upset by someone?
I too miss his input!
Savannah Continues its African "Empire
Building", Despite the Obstruction in Chad.
https://africaoilgasreport.com/2023/05/energy-transition/savannah-continues-its-african-empire-building-despite-the-obstruction-in-chad/
He's just living up to the second part of his user name. The first part is nowhere to be seen.
I think you must be lost :)
Ajax resources are looking to acquire a lithium asset currently at bottom worthwhile a look
Agreed agadem relationship with IR was phenomenal. Don’t think they have ever responded to my emails.
Renewable Tunisia Holdings?
I doubt it's Togo , Tanzania or Timbuktu...
I miss your input, Agadem. I really hope you'll be posting again when Savannah relists.
Looks like another renewable company incorporated today - SAVANNAH ENERGY RTH LIMITED (14868334)
Morning All, A new week means new hope............ Has anyone been in touch with IR recently just wondered and if so what has there response been ? I have tried recently but no response back......
You could be right komakino, whether it forms part of the same admission document or whether a SPA follows straight after remains to be seen. However one thing is certain that they will be looking to replace the 20,000 Bopd of production that they would have got from chad doba field if they managed to complete the acquisition successfully of Exxon and Petronas share. So it wouldn’t surprise me if they are looking to cram more than 1 deal quite quickly in a all in one document to avoid future suspension. It also would not surprise me if they ask for an extension as well to complete more than one deal. It just saves the hassle of future suspensions. Obviously what I am saying is just based on my own hypothesis. But I believe missing out on DOBs production will make them go for another acquisition which will hopefully replace the lost opportunity in chad. Amni fits the bill as according to its website it’s production is circa 20,000 Bopd which fits what they initially went for in chad.
Who knows we could receive another SPA before the admission document as well……
TiL, I think if that was the case they would have produced an SPA document by now. Both the Seven deal and Chad/Cameroon took 6 months from SPA, as will SS so whilst they may announce a new SPA immediately after the SS deal is signed, I doubt the admission document will include anything other than SS. If they were to do announce something new after SS is complete, and especially if it constitutes another reverse takeover, it would be nice of we got a bit of trading time in between to let the SP settle at it's new level and for people to divest or take new/increased positions before another suspension.
Imagine if the admission document covers the Petronas South Sudan deal and Amni Energy deal. Than all price estimates will be out the window……………….
One can dream and certainly possible considering the amount of time the admission document is taking I believe they are perhaps trying to bolt on more than one deal as an all encompassing admission document so we avoid further suspension. The last thing they would want is to complete South Sudan and than be suspended for Amni energy deal as that would certainly irritate Many people. Amni production may not be as large but it’s reserves are huge and would highly likely make it another reverse takeover even post South Sudan. So they may be trying to complete a mega document with 2 monster deals in the same window.
If we do complete south sudan with a closing price between $700 - 800m or lower and with net debt in the region of 1 bn - 1.2bn dollars, than I believe we should have enough headroom and fcf to pursue Amni international let's assume that our max borrowing is circa $2bn we would still have capacity of $800 million for additional acquisitions, and given our success with accugas in Nigeria i would love to pursue amni international compared to other deals. Even though Nigeria has it's challenges it's far better than other regions like chad or south sudan, plus the risk of military coup in Nigeria is far lower than the likes of chad and south sudan.
Although the production is much lower since 2021 by the looks of the below article, but it's great to see an RBL facility so if we were to acquire Amni we would have access to the RBL as well so we should be able to use that to grow amni production and develop it's assets under the right stewardship.
https://www.afreximbank.com/afreximbank-signs-us635-million-reserve-based-facility-term-sheet-with-amni-international-petroleum-development-company-ltd/
Amni International production number I believe as of 2021 was circa 50,000 bopd and 200 million cubic of gas per day. The company reserves are estimated to be 500 million barrels of oil and 2 tcf of gas. So if we do complete amni international deal it will be as large as south sudan or even larger likely an all share merger, not sure when the website was last updated so production could be lower since 2021 if there was lack of investment in the fields.
Oil: CEMAC's Community Competition Council endorses the acquisition of Petronas by SHT
The CEMAC Community Competition Council met today to deliberate on the acquisition of Petronas by SHT. After a consensual deliberation, the Council issued an opinion in favour of the acquisition, which will be submitted to the final decision of the Chairman of the CEMAC Commission. Meeting in Douala, Cameroun, on [...]
Tchadinfos
ChadInfos
Published on 11-05-2023
The CEMAC Community Competition Council met today to deliberate on the acquisition of Petronas by SHT. After a consensual deliberation, the board issued an opinion in favour of the acquisition, which will be submitted to the final decision of the chairman of the CEMAC committee.
Meeting in Douala, Cameroun, the CEMAC Community Competition Council completed its technical work on Thursday, May 11, 2023. The decision will soon be approved. This acquisition is an important operation for SHT, which will be able to strengthen its position in Chadian oil management by becoming the majority, namely 60% of the Consortium, 59.82% of Totco and 53.77% of Cotco.
This decision follows the visit of the Minister of State, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, Secretary General of the Presidency of Cameroun, to Chad on April 23, as well as the Chadian government's announcement of this acquisition. This decision shows that relations between N'Djamena and Yaoundé are once again in good shape.
The acquisition of Petronas by SHT is also a nose in Savannah, which has entered into a tug-of-war with Chad regarding the purchase of Exxon Mobil's shares in the Oil Consortium. This showdown pushed the Chadian government to nationalise the assets of the American multinational.
https://tchadinfos.com/petrole-le-conseil-communautaire-de-la-concurrence-de-la-cemac-donne-son-aval-a-lacquisition-de-petronas-par-la-sht/
Personally if we could sell the Costco pipeline entirely and move on to acquire other assets that would be great.
Part 3
• Complementing Parc Lolien de la Tarka in Niger, Savannah has just announced that it has signec a memorandum of agreement (MOA) with the Niger government for the development of two solar photovoltaic power plants with combined installed capacity of up to 200MW. Following the anticipated completion of teasibility studies over the course of the next twelve monts, the solar projects are expected to receive project sanction in FY24F, ahead of targeted first power by FY26F
The two proposed solar plants are expected to be located within 20km of the cities of Maradi anc Zinder. respectivelv. in southern Niger. Each plant is expected to have an installed capacitv of 50 100MW, for a total potential installed capacity of up to 200MW. The Maradi and Zinder solar projects are expected to generate rellable, attordable energy for Niger and increase overal gria-connectec power generation in the country by over 20%, whilst significantly reducing emissions.
The Maradi and Zinder solar projects are expected to be connected to the south central section of
Niger's electricitv arid. which is forecast to be interconnected to the western electricity arid zone
(which serves Niamey) by FY26F, as part of a World Bank-funded project. Savannah aims tc complete the required project teasibility studies over the course or the next twelve montns, prior
to anticipated project sanction.
Part 2
Parc Eolien de la Tarka wind farm project, Niger
In March 2022, Savannah announced its inaugural renewables energy project, confirming signature ot an agreement with the relevant ministry in Niger for the construction and operation of the country's first wind farm (Parc Eolien de la Tarka) on an independent power producer (IPP) basis Parc Eolen de la larka has proposed installed power generation capacitv of up to 20MW in the
Tahoua region of southern Niger and is expected to consist of up to 60 wind turbines.
The project's initial phase is already underway and comprises feasibility studies over a two-year period, including assessments to confirm wind conditions and now the generated power would de incorporated into the national and regional electricit arids. The proiect is expected to take advantage of the development of the West African Power Pool, to which Niger is scheduled to be connected shortlv via a 330kV line financed ov agencies including the World Bank. Africar
Development Bank, European Union and Agence Francaise de Développement
Subject to a feasibility study confirming the project's ultimate scale, Parc Eolien de la Tarka is expected to produce up to 600GWh per vear of electricity. The proiect's construction phase is expected to create over 500 jobs. with Savannah having reported that the proiect has the potential to reduce electricitv costs for Nigeriens and significantiv reduce emissions
Parc Eolien de la larka is also intended to be capable of exporting power to neighbouring countries at competitive tariffs and would significantly diversify Niger's energy mix, we understand. The project is expected to be sanctioned in FY24F, with Savannah having recently confirmed (in its first quarter update that it was making significant progress with key studies
As with its other renewables projects, Savannah expects to fund Parc Eolien de la Tarka using a
combination of internallv-generated cashtlows and prolect-specitic debt.
Part 1.
Following today's announcement that Savannah has signed an agreement with the Niger government for the development of up to 200MW of new solar projects, we thought that it would be useful to reflect on the strong progress the company is making in its renewables division. Whilst the near-term financial impact of these new projects is small, with first power scheduled to occur in years beyond our explicit forecast period, Savannah aims to deliver up to 1GW of new projects by the end of this year. We consider Savannah to be making excellent progress, having already secured projects with
expected generation capacitv of up to 525MW. Our RiSked NAV estimate is maintained at 45p share
Signature of solar agreement in Niger: Savannah announced this morning that it has signed ar agreement with the Niger government for the development of two solar photovoltaic power plants
with a combined installed generation capacitv of up to 200MW. Following the anticipated
completion of the required feasibility studies over the course of the next twelve months the sola
projects are expected to receive project sanction in FY24F, ahead of targeted first power by FY26F
Now more than halfway towards goal of up to 1GW: Alongside the 250MW Parc Eolien de la Tarka wind farm proiect in Niger and the 75MW Bini a Warak hvdroelectric proiect in northern Cameroon
Savannah seems well on track to reach its goal to assemble an up to 1GW renewables develooment
portfolio bv the end of this vear. Whilst first power from these proiects is not expected until mid
decade or beyona, tese are noneteless substantial utty-scale developments wnicn we belleve fit very well with Savannah's focus on "Proiects that Matter" to African development
MInImal outlay in the eart stages: vhilst tinancing including project-specitic debt will be require
for the development of savannans growing renewables portrollo in due course. we see a de
minimis financial impact in the shorter term. given the fact that in all cases proiect sanction is not
expected until FY24F. In the meantime we expect activities on the renewables side to focus or
feasibility and other key studies, with other workstreams including tariff agreements, projec financing and ultimately engineering and construction to come in subsequent vears
Savannah remains a strong platform for arowth: As discussed in our recent detailed note forecast earnings are still very material, implying a PE ratio of c. 7x (at its 26p/share pre-suspension price). We also continue to highlight the fact that Savannah trades (pre-suspension) on an FY23F EV/FFO ratio of
Savannah has signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MO) with the Government of the Republic of Niger for the development of two solar PV power plants (Maradi and Zinder) in southern Niger with a combined generation capacity of up to 200 MW.
- These projects are expected to increase overall grid connected power generation in the country by over 20% and avoid up to 260,000 tonnes of annual CO2 emissions. Feasibility studies will be conducted over the next 12 months, with project sanction expected in 2024 and first power targeted in 2025-26. Savannah expects to fund the projects from a combination of its own internally generated cashflows and project-specific debt.
- Savannah has built a material greenfield renewable power generation project portfolio from scratch over the past 18 months. This now includes four projects - three in Niger and one in Cameroon. On top of the two projects announced today, this also includes the up to 250 MW Parc Eolien de la Tarka wind farm in Niger signed last year, which is expected to start construction in 2024, and the 75 MW Bini a Warak hydroelectric project in Cameroon, where project sanction is expected in 2024, with first power in 2027-28. It brings the total renewable power generation capacity being developed by Savannah to over 500 MW as it pursues a target of having up to 1GW+ of renewable energy projects by the end of 2023.
- Savannah is delivering impressive progress with this division, quickly compiling a meaningful portfolio that offers diversification from oil and gas, provides the foundation for another long-term FCF-generating business from the second half of the decade, and showcases its full spectrum energy capabilities; an important calling card for accessing future growth opportunities
- Savannah's shares remain suspended and our forecasts under review until the publication of an Admission Document in respect of its acquisition of Petronas's South Sudan oil business, expected by mid year.
Zengas - Apologies I am still a little sketchy on the detail and will try to do some more research on the 2 assets mention below, i believe the below if we pursue will be post sudan so if we press ahead with Amni Energy that deal will likely conclude in H2 and not H1 which would make me believe that it would be in addition to south sudan completing in H1. In terms of structure of the deal I do believe an all share deal is likely almost akin to a merger creating an enlarged company Savannah Energy Group, believe a likely cash / shares deal being the likely scenario being accretive to Savannah shareholders. Although like i said it's not unheard of savannah widening the net as you have previously reported us being interested in Eni tunisia asset and petronas egypt. So I thought I would post the ones below to demonstrate the kind of assets that we are potentially after in nigeria as well. Also i was more intrigued that we were not after nigerian assets given our success with accugas. In terms of the Amni energy acquisition i was told it really difficult to complete if we did genuinely pursued it as its abit like the the seplat deal in nigeria with the new presidency and conflicted interest it's hard or almost impossible to jump through the regulatory hurdles.
whether the 2 i mentioned below ever see the light of day only time will tell but for now our priorities remain with south sudan completing in timely manner with government approval. Amni Energy would be a dream deal after south sudan as it could easily take us to 150,000 to 200,000 bopd production per day in the 2 or 3 yrs with reserves well in excess of 1 billion
Is Exxons share of production around 12k bopd on Oml 138.
They could offer a similar deal to what was done in Chad perhaps re financing.
Omni - don’t they have or have had significant oil production of around 20k bopd plus some other fields. Also 1.6 Tcf of undeveloped gas close to Port Harcourt area ? Maybe an all share deal ???
If true I think it would derisk repaying for South Sudan if production was interrupted for any length of time ? Same complex as Save on Victoria island and they did get involved with Lekoil so could be feasible. Couldn’t see them giving up on S.S after recent talk on closing it and being suddenly piling into these two possible deals as if on the rebound.
Save did say they would borrow up to $2.5b in their adm docs. Thanks for sharing Trustilie.