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RR looks like you need to have another engagement with IR.
I vaguely remember from some posts that according to the company the devaluation is of no effect or even beneficial to us? I didn’t quite understand at the the time and wondered how could that be. This is actually very worrying. We need Zengas and Zone and other clever posters.
I did suggest some time back that the interims would be ugly and the fx hit and interest burden would be significant. Annoyingly, this seems to have been correct.
I have particular concerns over the Going Concern paragraphs of note 2. The penultimate paragraph (extract below) is worrying and, to be honest, I didn't fully understand it.
"A detailed credit-approved term sheet has been executed with lenders for a new Naira denominated debt facility (the "Transitional Facility"). Whilst the process continues apace, Accugas did not have a long-dated extension for the refinancing process at the reporting date beyond the period of the going concern review. As such the balance outstanding of the Accugas US$ Facility continues to be reflected within current borrowings until the Transitional Facility is in place...."
I think liquidity to offload NGN is just pretty much non-existent for big tickets, even after the peg removal. And we're getting paid in NGN for our USD receivables.
Rob, read that and it needs to happen before we resume trading but these results do not make good reading
RR - this has to be Number 1 priority by a country mile as this is the note on the other board from C7 that Tier alludes to:-
We draw attention to note 2 of the condensed set of financial statements which explains that the Group's ability to continue as a going concern is dependent on either the ongoing support from its lenders to amend the terms of the Accugas US$ debt facility or a refinancing of that the facility. As stated in note 2, these conditions, along with the other matters referred to in note 2, indicate that a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern. Our conclusion is not modified in respect of this matter.
Shareholder have received nothing. What happened to the dividends we were promised years ago?
Nigeria gets its gas, and the lenders cream off 13.5% on increasing debt.
I'm starting to worry that AK will walk, how long have we waited for his promised refinancing of the debt?
Going concern warnings are ominous.
Niger is fecked, C&C is f3cked and SS is a complete basket case.
I'd happily take 20p just to be rid of this utter car crash.
From the report - Debt:
Work continues on the proposed refinancing of the Accugas US$ debt facility (as was detailed in the 2022 Annual Report). A detailed term sheet has been executed with a consortium of lenders for the provision of a Naira-denominated Transitional Facility and it is anticipated this will be finalised in Q4 2023.
I’m a little concerned as per Ch7’s post on the other board. Anyone’s opinion? Why is this refinancing taking this long? If we resume trading now it’ll be in the teens. We now desperately need another big deal in Nigeria.
RR I agree whilst chasing rainbows we are in danger of cooking the golden goose. Still nothing on Accugas debt renegotiation ?
LST - others will differ to my view but we are in a righ load pickle:-
Chad
Cameroon
Niger
South Sudan
I’ve said it time after time, Nigeria can only support all other stuff going on in the business for so long. God forbid should anything go wrong in Nigeria. Yes I think the risks have been a very educated gamble and we could not have possibly have expected to have so much bad luck. BUT WE HAVE HAD BAD LUCK ON ALL FRONTS EXC NIGERIA.
The next steps for AK in this company will be company defining. WE NEED TO TAKE ON SOME SMALLER deals with lower risk profile. I know Zengas will put me right and say even the small deals in the safer countries come with the same risk profile but personally I don’t buy that. Surely there must be some smaller deals with lower risk. And if there are not - we seriously need to review the company strategy. Whinge over but this is a doom and gloom report and apart from a stable situation in Nigeria and a bit of pocket money from Fenisko - I am really struggling to take any positives from this.
I hope AK proves me wrong and gives me a Hugh Birthday present in December - but at the moment, I am not impressed with what I read today. i was expecting higher production and lower debt as a very minimum.
I agree RR far too much uncertainty and nebt debt up, nothing on anything new , glad of extension to Dc but deal needs to be sealed by then.
PSB123 - Yep should calm the nerves and I believe whether south south comes in or not it will allow them to execute another transaction which we know they are really looking into as per my posts yesterday.....................
I believe the intention would be to come back to the market with a deal whichever it may be................
But nevertheless would be nice to get SS over the line.......................................
I am hoping much sooner than the 15th December.......................
Bloody glad we are not resuming trading yet!
Happy with this. It buys time to sort things out and avoids a potential car crash based on lack of facts.
Looks decent progress elsewhere after a skim through the report. Should calm some nerves
As expected an extension till 15th December 2023........................
Congo assets are Chevrons by the looks of it as they are pulling out of Congo
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/chevron-launches-sale-congo-oil-assets-sources-2023-05-25/
https://www.chevron.com/worldwide/republic-of-congo
An even juicer bit of research on acquisitions front another interesting profile on LinkedIn of a Subsurface Data - Reservoir Engineer
Seems like we have scoped out Congo and Nigeria as well. Not sure about Congo but Nigeria is the holy grail and especially OML 128 and OML 129, Nigeria and plus it’s offshore so it’s technically vey secure…………… We Know Equinor announced in Jan 2023 that they are looking to exit and the price quoted is roughly $1bn for 25,000 bopd. This asset I can definitely get behind we have presence in Nigeria already with accugas asset and strong performance their plus 3 office in Nigeria a team ready to go come on AK bring this baby home………………………………………………
I am crying out for an acquisition in Nigeria on the basis that we have done wonders with accugas and Nigeria still remains relatively secure compared to it’s other African countries. Nigeria OML 128 & OML 129 is right up my street.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/equinor-joins-western-oil-firms-retreat-nigeria-sources-2023-01-25/
Subsurface Data EngineerSubsurface Data Engineer
Savannah Energy · Full-timeSavannah Energy · Full-time
Dec 2022 - Present · 10 mosDec 2022 - Present · 10 mos
• Responsible for the analysis, quality, and efficiency of the Subsurface data.
• Reservoir analysis for new business development in Republic of the Congo (Moho-Bilondo, Lianzi, Nkossa- Nsoko).
• Reservoir analysis for new business development in Nigeria (Block 128 and 129).
• Development in Power Bi – DAX of reports and dashboards, for monitoring of Oil and Gas production and artificial lift pumps in Chad fields (The dashboards include, location maps of wells and fields) furthermore decline curve analysis.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jose-morillo-5a696316/
Zengas - I was also looking at the Amocon news. You will see the map on page 3 with Amocon EPF which is a third party connection. So when you refer to the job referring to Eket i am guessing it might be similar a third party inter connection. We will start to see a lot of small interconnections going forward around the main accugas pipeline and that will help us achieve as much as unprocessed gas capacity going forward so we can maximise the full 600mmscfd throughput of our pipeline
https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/New-Natural-Gas-Sales-and-Purchase-Agreement-signed-with-Amalgamated-Oil-Company-Nigeria-Limited-Final.pdf
Possibly LST, though I would imagine most likely after publication of the admission document and the formal contract between the two. So maybe 60 days from tomorrow? Maybe why they are scrabbling round for a loan.
Another nugget for all the believers. Whilst I was searching LinkedIn profiles for employees right now I stumbled across this interesting profile of a Geo Scientist at Savannah Energy.
Looks like the individual joined just a month before the South Sudan SPA and quote "Delivered technical assessment and recommendations for five Business Development projects"
Having delivered technical recommendations would mean that work would have already been done on other acquisition targets 5 to be specific in 10 months since the individual has joined. So South Sudan is not the only egg in the basket......... Yes one thing we can never know is status of these recommendations and execution timeline............. But oven technical leg work done on assets means we can swiftly strike on the deals..................
Is that why the company was confident in delivering another significant opportunity this year............ Just joining the dots reallly................
https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniella-guy-78080089/
GeoscientistGeoscientist
Savannah Energy · Full-timeSavannah Energy · Full-time
Nov 2022 - Present · 11 mosNov 2022 - Present · 11 mos
London Area, United KingdomLondon Area, United Kingdom
Appraising technical areas of Business Development opportunities, seeking to grow company oil and gas asset portfolio. Main responsibilities: assess reserves and resources, QC seismic interpretation and static models, assess development opportunities and analyse greenhouse gas and emissions data and capex/opex costs.
•Delivered technical assessment and recommendations for five Business Development projects
•Carried out exploration review for South Sudan fluvial-lacustrine Cretaceous rift-basin fields
Hi Komakino is that 60 days from signing of SPA ?
I would also assume that nationalizing these assets as they are shared with other companies would be nigh on impossible given who the partners are ?
That's why whether south sudan lands or not i am not to worried as i have always maintained that accugas can easily double in volumes in the next 12 months.
Sorry here is the LinkedIn account for our construction manager from LinkedIn was hired in July so work should be moving on the CPF front
https://www.linkedin.com/in/emeka-okoye-pmp%C2%AE-mba-b-eng-mnse-coren-5b0b7426/
Zengas - Possibly we know 200 mmscfd is our processing capacity and 600 mmscfd is our pipeline capacity for unprocessed gas................. So potentially we can use 400 mmscfd to transfer under processed gas through pipeline. The amocon deal has shown they might try to use as much as spare capacity as possible through third party gas
On a positive they have hired a construction manager for the CPF facility so should be progressing in the background.
Construction ManagerConstruction Manager
Savannah Energy · ContractSavannah Energy · Contract
Jul 2023 - Present · 3 mosJul 2023 - Present · 3 mos
Lagos State, NigeriaLagos State, Nigeria
Construction Management for the Uquo Export Gas Compressor Installation Project
Interesting: 60 days from notice of acquisition
22.Assignment
(I) A contractor shall not directly or indirectly assign all or parts of the contractual rights and duties under a petroleum agreement to a third party, including an affiliate, without the prior written consent of the Ministry.
(2) The assignee shall fulfil all applicable requirements under the laws of the Republic and shall be a person with the requisite technical competence, sufficient experience, history of compliance and ethical conduct and financial capacity to adequately fulfil all obligations of the petroleum agreement and any other requirements stipulated by the Ministry.
(3) Any transfer of ownership interests in a contractor which directly or indirectly results in a change of ownership control in the contractor shall be subject to the prior written approval of the Ministry and notice of the transfer shall be announced in the Gazette and made available by any other appropriate means to inform interested persons. For the purpose of this Section, direct or indirect ownership of 50 per cent or more of the shares, or a majority voting power, shall be deemed to entail control in the contractor.
(4)Consent in accordance with subsections (1) and (3) of this Section shall not be unreasonably withheld.
23.Pre-emption
(1) Where a contractor decides to dispose of all or part of its interest under a petroleum agreement, the National Petroleum and Gas Corporation shall have the right of first option to acquire the interest on the same terms as agreed to with the potential buyer.
(2)If the agreed consideration is not a monetary value, the National Petroleum and Gas Corporation shall have the right to pay the corresponding monetary value of the agreed consideration.
(3)The National Petroleum and Gas Corporation's right of pre-emption shall lapse unless exercised within sixty (60) days after receiving notice of the acquisition.