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Tiny addendum:
The total number of shares will reach 843.15m once these grants are vested. 120.05m, the number of shares management granted themselves, represents 14.24%.
Don't get me wrong, long term incentives are important, but in the past 12 months, management has granted itself a total of 120,048,803 shares.
This is over 16% of outstanding shares (approx. 723 million)!
Once these shares are vested, we, the existing shareholders will have to endure yet another 15% dilution and that without any guarantees that management won't just sell their shares the moment they have access to it!
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but this is money taken straight out of the pockets of existing shareholders.
And it's not money that will be used to build new turbines. It is bonus money for management.
Simec will emit even more shares once the company requires more money.
I'm sorry, I thought last year's grant is already the long term insensitive which is already plenty should the stock reach that juicy £100m marker cap aka 10x or +1,000%.
But now seeing an even larger packet going in their pocket, without having created ANY value for shareholders as of yet, is an absolute joke in my opinion.
Here are the numbers:
Shares outstanding: 723m
Grants last year: 55.26m
Grants this year: 64.79m
Total: 120.05m
120.05/723.1 = 16.6%
6th of April 2023 they already implemented long term incentives. At that time I was already a bit skeptical but tbh..I rather have a financially motivated team than the other way around.
The company work at has plans like this as well.. but I have to vest my shares over 4 years and I can't just grant myself more shares as I see fit etc.
They've already put out almost 8% last time..
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAE/grant-of-options-csop-and-ltip-k85o93rxi9f9iiy.html
Not sure if I like this
All im going to say is we better see some positive moves on the SP by 2nd/3rd quarter at the very latest or perhaps us P I's should attend the next meeting and start asking serious questions and make moves toward the BOD and it's actions. The jury is out and conferring at the moment.
97% availability is indeed very impressive..
What I do not understand, however, is why not build a bigger array? MeyGen has proven the tech, so has the 500MW turbine. Why scale up so little?
I wonder how these things are conducted. If Proteus was able to build these turbines at a lower price, given large enough orders then, at some point, they must become a financially viable option.
Let's not forget that there's CfD money coming.. at some point we have to see the price go down further.
If Japan was to buy more turbines it would only help.
Https://www.oedigital.com/news/510528-tidal-energy-turbine-comes-ashore-in-japan
Don't know
Am I over-reacting here?
Well, yes. And I am absolutely all in for giving employees long term incentives like that. However, most existing investors currently have an average way above 1.5p. My average is 4.5p and it wasn't cheap to get there..
Seeing the C-suite grabbing shares at a ridiculous price ... two times in a row .. is something I can't say makes me particularly happy.
If anything, then Cs have been incentives to keep the share price as low as possible as long as possible s.t. they can get grants like this.
It feels like stealing from us existing investors who have skin in the game for years now..
The other way to look at it is that if they do get upward trajectory then they gain too.
I think Mr Reid's allowance is about £70k at 1.5p
I guess at least now we know why they didn't release any significant news yet. Now they have a lower strike price of 1.5p ... must be nice.. ffs...
Yes, this will incentive them to work for the share price to raise, but how does this incentive them to hold their shares beyond 10, 25, 50p ...?
I finally made peace with the fact that I'll probably not get out with significant gains. Instead, I'll be lucky if my investment makes any gains at all.
And today I read that management presents themselves another care package? They already received options with a ridiculously low stroke price of 1.15p and now, basically a day after the got off the hook from their creditors, management decides to gift themselves yet another huge chunk of the company?
Did they literally just grab into my pocket and took another 10%?
What.
The.
Hell?
I'm just curious. I currently own 368,000 shares or
100 * 368,000 / 722,810,000 = 0.051%
🤣🤣🤣
Never thought much of Minesto's kites tbh. Maybe I can't imagine it but I can't see a future for kites roaming around underwater..
I just used them for comparison because at first glance the companies seem comparable in size and sector. Even though they are using fundamentally technologies.
As you said, people lost plenty in SAE in the past. The company might struggle to rebuild this trust and find new investors. Steady progress will be key here. The past years have been disappointing but I genuinely believe now that things may actually turn for the better.
Patience remains the key for us existing investors. In for the penny, in for the pound. 100p that is 😅
Hitting some development milestones on Meygen will be positive. Ironically we are likely to see at least one more CFD win for subsequent phases of Meygen before financial close not to mention construction.
Near term return to water of the fourth turbine (in H1 2024) will help both as return of a full array, and an extra £1m annual revenue (assuming no other turbine comes out with it).
Overlap of interests between Meygen growth and significant SAE ownership of Proteus will start to be interesting as and when Proteus is announced as turbine manufacturer.
BESS payments being finalised, as will granting of planning consent for more BESS at Uskmouth and Meygen in coming months.
Probable end of interest rate hikes from central banks - likely in 2024 and with positive effect for all equities, especially AIM-listed small caps.
IIRC the 2022 SAE annual report concedes that recent financial position had relied on equity raises - circumstances the company would now be moving out of. We can only hope no need to raise anytime soon, and the company an obviously more attractive prospect when it does.
In conclusion the foundations are looking a lot better but there is no science for when, how, and by how much the market will begin to value that. This is not an unknown company, many will have lost handsomely in it, so patience probably a virtue for a while yet.
Minesto - An interesting company but IMO no real comparison. The fact its kite is so different to most designs in the sector does not fill me with confidence. If nothing else it will be harder for Minesto to harness economies of scale enjoyed by manufacturers with more similar designs.
Let's compare a few numbers
Minesto vs Simec
Market cap: £100m vs £10m
Revenue: £3.4m/y vs £10m/y
Debt: £0m vs £53m
Total assets: £44m vs £85m
While Minesto does not have any debt, SAEs total assets can almost compensate for that. Given a higher revenue stream and BESS coming up as well as MeyGen next phases, Simec almost feels under-valued at this point.
Does anyone have a deeper insight which they can share? SAEs debt is probably holding us back but I feel like a £50m market cap isn't a ridiculous estimate for what the company should be worth. Am I missing something?
Potential upcoming dilution might be a bug factor maybe. After all, SAE will need money at some point..
Just saw we are at 722m shares issued.
So.. 13.85p if we get a £100m market cap or 6.93 if we make it to £50m.
There was significant dilution since then. 30p is probably a far reach today. What was the market cap back then? iirc it must have been 80 to £100m?
Today we are at £10m. Let's be generous and say we reach £100m soonish, then we'd have something around 15 to 20p.
But I don't think £100m is realistic. Lucky if we hit £50m, that is 7.5p to 10p.. maybe.
Any other opinions in this?
Def think this is worth holding for a rerating now. Remember years ago when it went to nearly 30p in 2020 when it had serious momentum (and serious ramping).
All the best matey
Now I can leave my phone alone until the new year knowing bigger and better things are heading our way. ATB for the new year people.
Planning for the next BESS at Uskmouth
https://documents.newport.gov.uk/PublicAccess_LIVE/SearchResult/RunThirdPartySearch?FileSystemId=PL&FOLDER1_REF=23/0949
A positive outcome on that early 2024 should be a good catalyst for SP re rate.
Well, crisis averted. I was hoping for more updates but perhaps they'll follow.
At least now the company can continue their path to stabilize. If we're lucky, the lowest point is behind us now.
This is the way SAE tells us Merry Christmas 🥳