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asimpleinvestor - I don't think you can blame yourself for supposedly 'taking your eye off the ball' and ending up underwater with your current holding.
You bought at a price which was actually still below where all the broker ratings (for what they're worth) and the business fundamentals suggest it should be at.
Nobody can predict when or where the shorters and their market maker accomplices are going to make a concerted effort to use their corrupt methods of manipulation to target a stock and drive it's price down.
"Could be some really choppy waters ahead."
There has been some choppy waters for some time. The price has dropped 178.66 since buying this share. My own fault taking my eye off the ball. Now asking myself do I keep it or leave with my tail firmly between my legs.
Nice trading stock currently. Skimmed off $200 today on a x5 CFD trade. Placed the trade Thursday afternoon. Pays for the weekly food shop!
Remember that the share price always goes up as we approach the 15th of each month...the day the posties get their shares through the company scheme.
They were not bought last Friday (obviously) ...so they would have been purchased today.
I would wait a day or two yet before buying any more in any great number (although a little nibble here can't harm) we will soon know how things are going regarding the negotiations...and it WON'T be plain sailing. So maybe time to buckle up?
Could be some really choppy waters ahead.
Royal mail Save from wages today as well.
A better start to this week. The usual issues going on shorters v DK, CWU v RMG etc etc. The pay deal will be sorted and a plan for SWW. We can only guess what DK has planned I personally only think he would be Interested in GLS and overseas business. No matter how rich he is I don't think he would need the headaches of taking on Government, Ofcom or CWU. I have some money to reinvest and if no further action from the shorts this week maybe the time to pull the trigger. Re the management changes this has been ongoing for around the last number of years and is virtually BAU and no one bats an eye at just lets those that want out on a nice package an exit strategy and structures/headcount savings delivered. Hopefully the start of a positive upturn here and GL whatever you plan and AIMO and could be way of the mark.
If you listen to the latest update from Pullinger (Facebook) when interviewed by Chris Webb, you will hear Pullinger remark that the CWU will not except any deal involving a pay rise linked also to the shorter working week...they are two separate deals in the CWU's mind; however, I think this can (obviously) be negotiated around.
As for the share price? I hope, in the short term it DOES go lower. As you yourself remark: "In the meantime, the shorters may be doing some of us (that have kept our powder dry) a favour?"
But putting that aside (and I have been buying here and there on the way down...all the way from £3.60 downwards) I would still be more than happy for the s.p to go sub 3.00...I will just keep buying. And will be buying more all the way back up to £4.00 also.
Upwards or downwards, I really couldn't care less. In two years from now when that Daventry Hub is fully operational and Royal Mail are capturing an even bigger chunk of the fastest growing ecommerce industry in Europe...then this stock will not ever be seeing even sub £6.00 again...never mind sub £4.00 a pop.
And let us all remember one very important aspect that makes this stock (at present time) very, very much different from most -- Kretinsky!
He has never sold one single share. From the moment he initiated a position in RMG, he has continued to add...and remember, even more importantly, he could have sold at well over £6.00 a share not so long ago; and could have made an enormous profit...but didn't. Why did he not sell? Why did he not sell at least a portion of them?
It is my belief that he never intended to buy this company. But if the opportunity to buy the company is handed on a plate to him...he would be stupid not to. And I believe that is exactly what Kretinsky believes also.
If kretinsky buys just another 3-4% of this stock...then it is well and truly game on. As for the share price? You can forget £4.00 a share then. It will be well north of that.
If this stock goes sub £3.00...then this company might very well be sold. It's as simple as that.
This year's pay negotiations will be interesting. The union would like a one off, no strings pay deal that reflects inflation however I'm not sure if the shorter working week (each hour being the equivalent of 2.6% cost to the business) will be part of the negotiations?
If they agree a pay deal with a 5% rise, this will be heading back 500p. Not a huge fan of the RMG price rises (which impact on my business) but good value on offer at this sp imo.
Scampthedog, everyone by now will be fully aware that this is the annual/biannual ****ing contest between the union and management. I am led to believe that Ricky McAulay is dealing with pay negotiations this year so it should be an interesting battle. In the meantime, the shorters may be doing some of us (that have kept our powder dry) a favour? I believe that if negotiations are drawn out or go south then this stock could drop below 300p, however all in my opinion and certainly not professional advice.
Regarding your earlier post about. Kretinsky potentially making a play for RMG. It's certainly an interesting debate, however as you are fully aware changing or debasing employment terms and conditions to cause an all out strike wouldn't be the wisest move. I am sure that the UK Government would have concerns and The Regulator would certainly be concerned otherwise they wouldn't be doing their job properly. Of course RMG could temporarily employ secondary staff to cover potential industrial action however as Rico Back found out, it's expensive to hire staff in advance (only to then discover that the union have failed to hold a legitimate ballot) and then have to pay for extra employees for a month or more because the industrial action is called off.
In summary though, I am fairly confident that a solution will be found before the beginning of May because it's in everyone's interest however it may also provide some interesting purchasing opportunities ;-)
Pullinger has announced exactly what I had hoped he wouldn't (although in all fairness he was bound to take this stand) that the shorter working week and pay rise will not be traded off one against the other.
Ops...trouble coming.
No way is the company going to offer anywhere near a rise in wages comparable to present inflation.
Very much looks like the Shorters were right after all.
Doesn't change my viewpoint though about holding on and mopping up cheap shares. Doubt if it changes Kretinsky's mindset either.
CWU says they have a meeting Tuesday next week to discuss a pay rise to cover inflation. @CWUnews
Watch on twitter
I drive an artic occasionally for RM via staffline, looking between £16-£22 per hour depending on shift. Good easy work...
Not sure where your getting the info on our lorry drivers Scamp , but you are miles off the mark. Agency drivers won't join Royal Mail because they are £10 an hour better off with the agency. Supermarket drivers are also on more. Royal Mail HGV drivers are some of the worst paid. Yes they may get sick pay and holiday pay but terms are not great.
Yes, OliGarch...that's exactly what I mean (selling off GLS and ParcelFarce). Obviously the present board could not do it for all the most obvious reasons. But Kretinsky could -- and most certainly would!
I am not for one minute saying that this would be the 'right' thing to do...but any successful takeover attempt would most certainly culminate in selling off GLS at some point in the near future.
As for the unions? Kretinsky wouldn't give a damn. Why should he? He wouldn't miss the revenue (in the short term leastways) from taking on us posties when we were all sat at home on strike. A lot of us would have no jobs when we came back...which is what we would end up having without striking...the difference being that we would all be a lot more poorer for having gone on strike in the first place.
If Kretinsky gets hold of Royal Mail it would be the end of the posties terms and conditions as you and all the old-stagers know (and have known) them. In fact...it would, in a very short space of time, be a completely different animal.
And you wouldn't hear a murmuring bleat from the government or the regulator.
The one thing that Kretinsky would really be interested in getting his teeth into would be R.M's transport fleet. Royal Mail drivers (as you and all other posties on here are more than aware of) are on fantastic wages (far better wages and t&c's than the national average). Massive savings to be made here...massive savings. But not whilst the company is run under the present restrictions. But take those impositions away...and away would go much of that fleet with them.
Scampthedog, I presume that your interpretation of "doing a hatchet job and wrecking the business" means selling off GLS and ParcelFarce?
Obviously this would be possible under private ownership, however, as you are no doubt aware, there are legal caveats currently in place that would mean that the UK operation would need to remain viable whilst meeting the demands of the USO.
I'm not saying that the UK operation couldn't thrive as a stand alone business, however it would make things a lot more challenging.
F**k it...I never catch the bottom anyway.
Don't consider this the falling knife any longer at this stage.
That's probably now gone and put the mockers on it mind you; but if it falls considerably lower will just take another bite out of it.
I am now totally convinced Kretinsky has taken the view: "if they want to hand me the company on a plate...so be it."
A former government got rid of RMG because it was a big headache...the present board might well be thinking along the same lines: "we cannot do a hatchet job on it they will wreak the business...but we know someone who wouldn't give a damn...and would just sit back...and let them get on with it".
The very first time big D bought into this company I was thinking just that very thing...and my thinking has still not changed...not one little bit it hasn't.
And all that 200 million buyback did was further strengthen my opinion.
Yeah keep accumulating £100 a month through the share save. Can wait four more years for the big rise.
Don't invest more than 10% of your portfolio in any one stock, you can have that for free... GLA
Life’s a gamble,shorts are gambling,the biggest share holder is gambling,although it maybe an educated gamble,the largest shareholder buying more will spook the shorts.
Just look at black rock,shorting but still buying and going long.
No
i also am tempted to buy, but concerned about the amount of shorts outstanding - doesn't that suggest the share price has further to fall?
My USA 2022 I’m tempted to add another £20 k small fry by Dk but that makes me £60 k think I’m decided but thoughts welcome guys ?
As everybody on here is well aware...I am not one to crow...but...Kretinsky, just like I said he would, has increased his holding yet again.
He now owns 21% of the company...thanks to a little extra help from the board and their Buyback scheme.
Makes one wonder more than just a bit does it not?
He has obviously been tipped off by someone on the inside that the chances of a strike are slim...just like I have postulated the same opinion over the last week or two.
This company is a glaring buy whatever the next set of figures announces. Why? Because with its present market cap and a price-to-earnings ratio of just 6.3, plus the generous dividend, it makes it an absolute no-brainer.
Yes it will always have its inherent problems...but parcel delivery is here to stay. And so is Royal Mail...in one form or another. Whatever that "form" ultimately turns out to be. Lol.
Maxi. "Someone thinks there’s value here"
Excellent so now we have 5 recent buyers. She will be flying soon ;-)