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Had been watching this for quite a while and the reason I bought back was the very quick appearance and then disappearance of about 3 or 4 posters whom were obviously trying to deramp this share in particular, for I think, no other reason than to get the price down and acquire more shares. Here's to great results in the next few weeks. Lennie
Similar Lennie. At least none of the major holders have sold out. GL
Thank you for your reply LBG, much appreciated. Fortunately ( I think !) I bought back in at just under 34p and think I will hold for the results and for the mid-term as hoping that all the bad news has now been priced in. Lennie
Hi Lennie, I'm afraid it will likely be a mixed bag. Napier and Garret will both give poor figures while the other 3 parts of the company should show good improvement. The question I would like to know is how much the sugar hub is alleviating the problems with BS. I think it will be helping out a considerable amount, but unfortunately RGD will not give out that info as they see it as sensitive info. GL
Seems as though the derampers have done their job, probably loaded up and now disappeared. LBG-you seem to be well informed on RGD, I think results are due the end of the month, how do you see these going? Lennie
I'd be surprised if they could not. Why would Omicane buy so heavily in RGD if they could not? Omicane have been topping up for the last few years now, holding near enough 30% of RGD. They know what will be going on, as they do hold a non-exec. director position here. Time will tell though. GL
I don't think the trading statement was good but, at £31.5m, net debt was not as high as I thought it might be. However, debt normally increases in the coming months and I wouldn't be surprised to see it top £40m. I'm therefore still of the opinion that they'll attempt a fund raising, possibly within weeks. As for Immingham, can they obtain the best source price from a supplier who is also a major shareholder?
Fair enough trustybob. Cheers for the input. :)
They're fighting a major UK supplier, both to them and the market - so no doubt a bit of negativity is out in circulation. The horizon doesn't look pretty, but these guys have got through bad times before, with good strong directorship and management they can get through it (if they no doubt lose against BS) but it's going to get ugly first I think. This is as positive as I can be I'm afraid LBG.... one more positive thing, at least the share price isn't 2p like it was a few years back, it was tough then too.... trust me.
Wow all coming out of the wood work now. 3 in one week. All posted on RGD and no other boards, all negative and all new posters.
I agree with plumcharlie, Immingham is an overhead to the business, sugar is readily available in Europe (deregulation in 2017 is causing immediate market positioning by the big boys) so this OH is going to pull Napier down and effect how competitive this sugar trader is in the short term, only life line is the other group companies keeping them going, but the next 6 months is going to be very interesting indeed..... as I understand the British Sugar issue, has only hit half of the FY results, what could be the impact on a full year.....
Quite positive imo. The rest of the business is doing well and improving. Immingham is up and running helping to provide sugar and not doing badly as someone suggested. Gla
I agree to the earlier comments voiced by Poleaxe , sugar prices are weakening dramatically as we head towards deregulation in 2017 , margins are being squeezed by the retailers as the discounters take market share so. I look forward to the next market update as I feel this will give a clearer picture as to what is happening in this business....in summary cash looks tight , the market for sugar doesn't look good so unless these guys have adjusted margin aspirations and forecasts along with curtailed investment then get ready I fear for some gloomy news
Yes I have a small investment here. It does all depend on how badly Napier is affected and how much the other parts of RGD have improved. Hopefully Immingham will make a difference as they have suggested. What makes you suggest Immingham may not be as good as expected? How come you know about RGD? Most people don't know who or what they do unless they have researched them or possible have worked for them. What's your story?
This thread came up when I did a recent Google search on RGD. Up until then I wasn't aware that lse.co.uk had a share chat forum. In due course I may post on other companies. I take an interest in the fortunes, or otherwise, of several companies, not just those I'm invested in. With some, especially those listed on the cesspit called AIM, it's like a serialised drama and I find it fun to try and anticipate how the plot will develop! I assume you're invested in RGD. What's your view? Do you think they will survive the year without raising further cash?
What is your interest in RGD if you are not long or short and considering you have only posted twice both on this board?
legobrickgirl, I have no position in RGD, long or short, although if I did I'd rather be short than long. Think about cash flow and the impact of having to pay more than they'd planned for stock. How close are they to breaching banking covenants? It seems to me they'll have to raise funds somehow soon. Perhaps via a share issue or a disposal. Note the appointment Daniel Stewart as joint broker a couple of months ago. What's that about? Have you considered management, looked at the history of other AIM companies Pieter Totté has headed up e.g. Hill Station, Aquabella?
Poleaxe - welcome to the lse chat forums. I do find it strange when first time posters post negative posts. Most first time posts are in a share they have just bought into and want it to do well. Ofc this also could apply to you, but in a shorting capacity. RNS update due any day now. RGD could drop more and I would add if it does, but I do not see it going bust. Gl
I'm surprised that IC considered it a buy at 51p. They don't seem to mention cash flow. Cash must be getting pretty tight now. The Immingham hub won't help in time and that may not be all it's cracked up to be. So I suspect they'll have to be some form of fund raising in the not too distant future, possibly the next couple of months. Otherwise it's goodnight Vienna! Perhaps it will allow Omnicane to increase their stake beyond 30%.
Thanks lbg I really appreciate the info you have posted I am sorry to hear about your father, I hope everything goes as well as it possibly can for you and your family. It really looks like Pieter Totte is pealing back the onion that is RGFC I look forward to seeing the efforts of the company's various changes and challenges reaping the rewards they obviously justly deserve
Pieter Totté, Executive Chairman, comments: "The investments which we have made in increased sales and marketing resources were designed to transform our businesses from being manufacturing-led to market-led and underpin our growth strategy. "It is pleasing to see that this strategy is now beginning to bear fruit: volumes are showing good growth in Napier, Renshaw and at Haydens, while we have now recruited sales and marketing teams to deliver similar momentum at R&W Scott and Garrett Ingredients. "The instability in the sugar market is giving us short term challenges but our strategic plans in this market remain sound and we are encouraged by the support being given to us by customers who recognise the valuable role we play in the market." 4 February 2014 Sorry, not a holiday. My father is seriously ill in hospital. These boards are giving me a little to read over the hours of sitting around. I suggest you read back through the RGD board for the last six months as there are some very informative posts. Gl
Np. There has been a restriction on sugar imported which is getting abolished in 2017 which is probably why British sugar has the monopoly. RGD consists of 5 different companies. RGD has been spending money improving these to increase sales. This extract from the April RNS update explains quite well. Napier Brown's sales, following this year's main contract season, have increased significantly in both the industrial and retail sectors. The new listings for the Whitworths brand have come into effect and utilisation at the Normanton packing facility has increased substantially. Commissioning of the new site at Immingham is virtually complete and will enable the business to utilise new sources of sugar more cost effectively which is critical to our future business model. Trading has inevitably been impacted by the reduction in sugar prices, but we are confident that the steps we have taken to mitigate against this will restore margins to previous levels during 2014. At Garrett Ingredients trading has been also been affected by the instability in the sugar market and while contribution from Dairy ingredients showed growth in the early part of the year, recent market conditions have been challenging. This and some increased costs associated with a management re-organisation will impact this year's performance. We are very pleased, however, to have successfully recruited a new, experienced management team and believe that we now have the structure in place to deliver our growth plans. At Renshaw, the investment in sales and marketing is now beginning to pay dividends and we anticipate reporting a significant increase in EBITDA for the year. Sales growth has been experienced in UK retail while export initiatives are also showing positive signs with our business in Brussels now fully operational and the Renshaw brand launched in the US with a bespoke range of products. R&W Scott has now recruited a full commercial team and is ready to drive a series of added value product launches over the next 18 months. The first of these, a range of premium desert sauces, is now on sale in retail while a number of b2b opportunities have been identified across all product sectors. EBITDA will be similar to last year as the business absorbs the increase in overhead which is required to meet its long term ambitions. EBITDA at Haydens is anticipated to increase YOY as sales continue to grow and the remodeling of the bakery enables improved labour utilisation. The customer base continues to broaden and the commercial team has been expanded to reflect this.
Thanks lbg, I appreciate your view on this and the further info you have submitted from investor chronicles. It makes perfect sense about the sugar hub allowing for new routes to market, too stupid to be true why no one else has looked at doing this I do not know? Sorry one further question, when they say money spent on the other businesses, what money and what businesses are being spent upon and why, do you know? Hope you enjoy your time away from home by the way
Here is what investor chronicles said a few weeks ago. I'd expect the sp in 2/3 years to be about £1.50. Shorter term of 6 months is expect around the 70p mark. Ic review Given the progress made reshaping the entire business, with brand development and new products on the one hand, and investment in a super-efficient sugar hub and new routes to market for Napier Brown on the other, this news is disappointing. However, we said in our buy tip (61p, 23 Jan 2014) that whatever the short-term hiccups, Real Good Food Company's long-term strategy remains sound, and we still believe this to be true. Investment in the new sugar hub should pay off as Napier increases the amount of sugar it sources from abroad and as EU sugar quotas are abolished in 2017. And money spent improving the other businesses should continue to help them gain market share. True, the magnitude of the downgrade is considerable, and the dispute with British Sugar is serious, but we're sticking with our tip on this one and view the 51p share price as a good buying opportunity. Buy.
Can't go into too much detail as I'm away from home for the next week or so but basically RGD are working on sourcing sugar from else where so as to not be so reliant on British sugars. This will take time though.