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Ujo gaining momentum, as night follows day rbd will follow.
It’s like a coiled spring standing on a granite base, 1p + before the month is out imo.
'WINDOW of OPPORTUNITY' example of why you should follow the RBD smart money.
Examine RBD's Opportunistic acquisition of Humber's 16.66 per cent. interest in West Newton.
(Remember the Acquisition is conditional on, inter alia, Oil and Gas Authority approval).
The acquisition is funded by a cash consideration of £1.4 million and 350,000,000 Consideration Shares.
The Humber percentage is 16.6% which is the same as the UJO percentage.
SP Angel have put a recent UJO SOTP valuation of £92.87m on that 16.6% based upon a 24% recovery rate.
Lets put an eventual value of 3p per share for RBD. So for under £12m (a rough estimated future value of the deal), S & S have just obtained £92.87m worth of Assets base on that 24% recovery rate.
(Those dispositional cycles of WN match those in W Germany and Poland hence a - 24% figure is used it could be far higher adding more value).
It was a 'window of opportunity' that allowed them to use their previously acquired financial know how of this sector.
Another underfunded O & G project.
Just follow the smart Money and watch out for their next deal.
Patience pays.
C.
Ruben, forget about persimmon. Filter him if you find it annoying. He will bang on until the cows come home. Just ignore and consider the bigger picture....
Which is the increased exposure to the WN asset. Take heed of what O2B is saying. II’s are invested for good reason.
Thanks Jack. My mistake.
Rubey
I would read the RNS again. 01 June admission was for the “Commission Shares” relating to the £5M equity line.
The RNS was silent on the “Consideration Shares” as the deal is conditional on O&G Approval, which is expected shortly.
Jack
I should say it was 'expected' to be 1st June. But that's one hell of a delay if it's not yet gone through, which would suggest to me Humber's first batch will already have been received and sold. Not that it really matters I suppose. West Newton is far bigger than anything Humber selling shares can affect.
'Repent at leisure' persimmon? Chill out at leisure is nearer the truth when West Newton comes in.
Rubey.....your comment about my post reminds me of an old idiom which I will slightly misquote to save your blushes. Speak 'in haste repent at leisure'. Sleep well and G.L.
Thanks Jack. Would we still be notified after O&G approval even though the admission date was 1st June? It seems a long time ago to me. Perhaps a delay because of covid-19? If Humber have been delayed in receiving their allocation because the OGA weren't able to authorize the share issue they must be spitting feathers!
And exactly how do you know that persimmon? I take it you're the bad smell on this bulletin board.
Rubey
The SPA for Humber was conditional. Once O&G approval is gained we will get an RNS confirming SPA and the issuance of 320M shares. The 3 month lock in you refer to is from the admission date of those shares, which will also be confirmed by the same RNS.
Jack
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/reabold_resources/news/rns/story/xq1mdnw
That 10,000,0000 delayed trade is only the first one of a number of larger trades.......just saying......see what Wednesday brings.
Remember the strategy which has been sold to the Inst' Investors( Including Miton, Ruffer and Hambro.
'Reabold aims to create value from each project by investing in undervalued, low-risk, near-term upstream oil & gas projects and by identifying a clear exit plan prior to investment'.
The exit plan has been identified, all that is needed is what will be produced at WN-B . These facts will be provided via Rathlin very soon. They have lined up the City deal and are now waiting for results. Humber just added more value into the pot. It's a multibagger just waiting for news.....
Look at the trades in UJO (Mcap £33m) today for just 16.6% of WN , now compare this to RBDs 56%+ (Mcap £41m).
RBD is grossly undervalued.
Miton, Ruffer and Hambro researchers, know value when they see it.
They may have been shown the exit monetise strategy already.
Just follow the money.........
C.
If I understand correctly, Humber were allowed to sell around 117m shares from 1st June, and a further 233m after 1st September. Although I have held RBD shares for many months, I haven't been watching to see if Humber have been unloading their first parcel available to sell. They would have had 5.2% if my sums are right - they wouldn't need to TR-1 because the RNS of 26th May would cover that notification, but there have been no TR-1's since. This of course doesn't mean they haven't already sold enough to fall below 5 or even 4% as I know the AIM rules often don't get followed, but can anyone update me on any estimates to the amount they may have already sold? I believe I heard somewhere they needed the cash, so I assume they will sell as soon as they can, but do they have any of the first 117m available to sell left?
It's nice that 10m is out of the way. Looking good now, I feel a nice rise is on the way : )
Maybe that is their 10,000,000 late sell
JD... great post.... I will take 5p. Honestly, I will.
Buying was good today but it looks like Humber might be selling a few.... or someone is. I don't think it is PI's. Once they stop, this will lurch north. Hold on to your hats....
* and I don't do Base case !!
Jack
Blackhopper,
I am looking for at least your 5p figure and here's why :
1. From the recent Shard coverage on UJO a number of posters have done a read across to RBD. Looking at Page 5 of their Summary Valuation ("Base" case), excluding West Newton, the NPV on all other Assets adds up to c£17M. I guess near term, UJO have a 40% share of Wressle, expected to come online @ 500bopd (200 Net to UJO). Net 2P (Proved and probable) Reserves to UJO is 0.26mmboe or 260 mboe.
Compare this to RBD California Assets where the Proved Developed Producing Reserves ("PDP") assets are 653 mboe plus Proved Undeveloped ("PUD") reserves 328 mboe. Our associated value of Net US$19.3 Million (NPV10) was attributed to RBD in Aug 19.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/reabold_resources/news/rns/story/wk0n5ox
Post period end, on 26 February 2020, RBD provided an update to the market regarding the performance of
its California portfolio of assets. Oil production across RBD’s California licences, being West Brentwood and
Monroe Swell, in which RBD has a 50% equity interest, for the period from 1 July 2019 to 31 December 2019 was
50,285 (gross) and 25,143 (net) boe. RBD's net revenue generated from the sales of hydrocarbons in California
over the period was US$1,349,000 (US$1,079,000 net of royalties), equating to a realised price of US$57.9/
boe (US$46.3/boe net of royalties). The estimated cash operating cost per boe was approximately US$13.10 for the
six months ended 31 December 2019. Hmmmm....
https://reabold.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/258804-Reabold-AR-Web.pdf
Many would say, including me, our California Assets are more than equal to all UJO Assets put together (But more importantly, UJO are way behind the curve in realising any value).
2. Shard ascribed .03p per share to UJO's £5M cash balance, however this cash is required to fully fund the forward work program at WN, Wressle and Biscathorpe. As at 11 June 20, RBD surplus cash balance was £5.6M (Having already fully funded WN and Parta work programs. ) Once the Humber deal is approved we say goodbye to £1.4M, leaving £3.2M plus the additional liquidity in the £5 million discretionary equity line cash facility as a non dilutive contingency.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/reabold_resources/news/rns/story/x4zqo0r
3. Some folks have written off Corallian but they were awarded five new licences by the Oil and Gas Authority ("OGA") as part of the 31st Offshore Licensing Round in the UK. Hmmmmm
4. Significant gas discovery at Danube IMIC-1 appraisal well with operator volumetrics increased to 20 bcf of Contingent Resources from 6.1 bcf of Contingent and 12.7 bcf Prospective Resources. Ok some mud to clean up, as normal !
5. Then we get to WN.......It's interesting that Shard assumed a Gas Recovery factor at 72% and the 45M Oil column at 25%. Both further discounted by GCoS @ 72%. Base case for UJO US$82.3M for 16.665%. Hmmm RBD 56.3% and I don't d
Almost last orders here before the WN catalyst. I am locked and locked. Let’s have an oily few months ahead. My target = 2.5 pence
I knew you didn’t mean 500p Trytry.... that would be a bit optimistic!
Just realised I wrote a fiver! yeah 5p obviously.
Great post BlackHopper, 4-5p is a realistic long term prospect. The share register of institutional investors is impressive, they will want a big pay day too.
I have been quietly building and building here and well over 10 million now so yes I would agree anything like a fiver and I will maybe buy a McD's to celebrate. Seriously though I am in for the long haul no matter what I believe and hope that the S&S team are looking to make some serious money from their own shares and I am hoping to stay with them until the final sell and retire with a good wad in the old back pocket.
O2B has quite rightly for weeks being saying 'Follow the money'. It's a good point and a good start. This is my take on the whole deal, starting from........
Last year I bought this on a whim at .58 and sold at a tiny profit a few days later, knowing next to nothing about the company. Nothing. Then I watched the SP jump up over 1p in a fairly short space of time and top out at 1.4p. This was the A2 find...
I cursed my luck and switched off. I did not look at RBD again until January this year. I could see the deal at .9p, £24 million raised and 2.7 billion more shares in issue. 6.7 billion in total. Eyebrows raised. Hmmmm... Read about West Newton and could feel all the excitement about what could be a big, big find ONSHORE UK.....NEAR to LOTS of INFRASTRUCTURE. Very very interesting.....
Watched the SP keep falling....was tempted below .7p and then suddenly it was below .6p and I had a nibble at .58p...
Then we had Saudi / Opec oil madness and Covid and everything melted. This reached .24p (mental, less than what was in the bank effectively) Did not manage that but had a few at .28 and .31. Now we are back to .6 and Brent is just shy of $43. $50 later in year....
So what on earth is going on? Well, the II's who funded the £24 million raise at .9p MUST have been mighty impressed with the A2 well result, even without the EWT we are waiting on. The Kirkham Abbey has the potential to get RBD to 2p on its own. But the deeper Cadeby has an even bigger potential, IF it has OIL.
There is only one way to find that out. If it does and lots of it, then 4-5p is on the cards. It's by NO MEANS guaranteed but a good result from the first B drill will make those investing here very happy people.
If B1 is a dud, it is by no means over. B2 is planned to target the KA formation with a lateral drill. So much more well length in the formation. If that is good, and there is a much greater likelihood it will be then it's bingo time anyway but maybe 2-3p.
5p will UTTERLY CHANGE MY LIFE. If B1 hits the black stuff in the Cadeby I'm going to be dancing around the living room.
It's all a risk. Drills were done in the area before with no success. The A wells last summer were looking for gas. They were never expecting oil. Hence the excitement of a 65 metre HC column, the bottom 2/3rds of which was OIL.
It really is very very exciting. If you don't fancy this and you look at the cash injected at .9p then i don't know what you do fancy!!?? Really.
That's my take. Risk, sure but pretty good odds with two distinct runners in the race. Plus the gas in Romania which they will get. also with pipes and plant very hear by.
GLA and get in now ;-)