Adrian Hargrave, CEO of SEEEN, explains how the new funds will accelerate customer growth Watch the video here.
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Things have been eerily quiet. There has been absolutely no activity on the chat boards, no news, no apparent interest in Blue Prism for at least a week. Has anybody else think it's odd that Blue Prism has not announced the date when they will be voting on the Vista takeover bid? Who has a theory on what is going on?
In my view, it's peculiar that an announcement on the date of the vote has not been forthcoming.
Historically, we're due a TU in the next month and, according to the last one, it will be to announce that the Company has made a loss for the year but has finally broken even on a monthly basis, and is therefore expecting its inaugural profit for FY22.
If you were Vista, you would want the vote ahead of this news. Holding the vote after makes it far more likely that your bull**** offer is rejected.
So I believe that the BoD and Vista have spent the last few weeks desperately scrabbling for votes to reach 75% and have thus far failed.
Vista will therefore be considering an increased offer prior to the imminent TU; or walking away.
They must know though, that once this PLC converts to profit, they'll never get it as cheap as this.
AIMHO
I sold out on 28th Sept having only been a holder for a few months. If the bid fails, this could get very interesting, although it does present a huge amount of uncertainty. Essentially the entire Board would need to be replaced which would take time and cost, and leave the firm rudderless for a period. The question then for institutional investors is are they prepared to take the short -term pain and block the deal (remember, many of these guys are remunerated on short term performance) or simply sell out now and chalk it up to experience? Going to be an interesting watch from the side-lines, but I cannot see the point of any PIs staying in the share at the moment. Either the deal goes through at current share price, or it falls after the failed bid with management credibility in tatters.
Great points @Lsoc85 and @MattTheBrave. I agree on all points. The only thing I would add is that I believe they have to take the existing bid to a vote before Vista would sweeten the pot on their own - unless a competing bid forced them to do it.
If that's the case, I think its right on that they won't get 75% approval and that the share price will react negatively on the failed first vote. It could drop 15%-30%, especially since management has signaled that they can't turn this around and everyone knows that things may get worse before they get better if they have to replace the BoD and/or executive team.
I think the play is to steer clear of it entirely until the vote happens since the risk exposure of the presumed failed bid is not worth taking. The opportunity, then, occurs after the big drop when the price is dirt cheap. That said, anybody who holds their nose to dive in at that point should be prepared to hold for 12-24 months to realize the upside. IMO.
Half Year Report - 17 June 2021 - reiterating First Half Update of 17 May 2021:
"The Group continues to plan to achieve exit run-rate underlying cash breakeven within the 2021 financial year and continues to expect financial performance to be in the ranges outlined at the May trading update."
We know, as AG has previously outlined, that the BoD are being bonused on getting this dreadful deal over the line.
But to what lengths are they willing to go? The confidence of break-even by October 21 is there for all to see, not once but twice.
Do we actually think this BoD would sabotage the PLC to achieve this deal? By either ensuring it didn't achieve break even or deliberately giving a pessimistic TU?
For me, the sp direction will be determined by the TU due in c. 4 weeks' time.
As a profitable, stand alone PLC with £170m AR and 98% retained revenue, I don't think it will be two years before the price recovers to well above its current level.
Again, AIMHO.
I might well get a smacked arse but I'm holding nonetheless!
Today's scheme document with TU has changed the situation. I'm out. Will keep an interested eye on the outcome of the meeting. If it crashes down to £7 I may well have another look. But for now, cheerio.
@Lsoc85, what specifically in the scheme document switched to your decision from hold to sell everything? I haven't read it yet (because I sold everything myself weeks ago), but now I'm curious. The die hard fans of this company keep dropping like flies.
When is the vote by the way?
November 19th is the in-person meeting, although proxy votes occur sooner.