Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
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A little harsh even by your standards Theo!
Agree that financing is taking longer than hoped for and appreciate that you have an axe to grind however a quick browse of the RNS suggest that the project is in good shape..
https://pensana.co.uk/technical-due-diligence-report-on-longonjo/
Pensana have two very supportive major shareholders in place that reflects their confidence in the strategy and growth prospects of the company , rather than taking any notice of a random anonymous internet troll.
28 APRIL 2023
M&G, which is one of the UK’s leading investment institutions and Fundo Soberano de Angola (“FSDEA”), which is the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund, remain strongly supportive of the Company and its business plan and have each requested and been granted the right to participate in any future equity or other fund raising undertaken by the Company on a pro rata basis for the next two years.
https://pensana.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/RNS-Issue-of-Shares-to-M-G-and-FSDEA-_28-April-2023.pdf
The silence from the company tells you all you need to know. They tell you what they are trying to put to together but don’t tell you when the plan falls apart. ECIC project funding is very rare. It’s usually small ticket. ECIC state that one of their project funding requirements is that the borrower has a track record of delivering on similar projects. I think Pensana have got a bit carried away. As we approach the first anniversary of the company’s announcement that financing was at an advanced stage we might wonder what happened with the $220m equity investment that formed part of the 3rd April 2023 announcement. Obviously it was rejected by the investor’s committee. Fair enough, you win some you lose some, but why hasn’t the company informed the market? They seem to be serially incapable of being open and candid, but perhaps that’s all part of the plan? They have burned through what, $60 or $70m of investors money getting absolutely nowhere, directors are doing extremely nicely thank you, costs worldwide have soared, Longonjo cost has plummeted (apparently), it’s all a nonsense.
The funding is conditional on getting Export Credit Agency backing.
Can anyone confirm this is now in place?
They have project funding, so it's irrelevant.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope"
Are you discussing your beloved Rainbow's relentless fall from 17 p to 10p over the past 6 months?
VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF Index (REMX) is up 21%, steadily from 43.5 to 52.61 since start Feb. If this rate is maintained, the index will be back at its all-time high sometime Sep/Oct 24.
Statista now forecasting Nd and Pr oxide prices to hit US$77.5K and US$94.5K/mt by 2025. (Currently US$50.4K/mt and US$50.4K/mt). That's a 55% increase in Nd oxide, and a 88% increase in Pr oxide in a year or so.
Which considerably sweetens the investment cases for Longonjo, Coola and Saltend.
Not surprised PA is dropping gentle hints that if UK govt isn't interested in critical metals refining here, other countries most definitely are: Mr Atherley said: “The Government is keenly aware that they’re in competitive situations for locating these plants. The competition is coming from Europe, North America, Saudi Arabia – people are offering incentives – but the UK is doing a good job in trying to keep and attract businesses like ours".
I suspect PA is thinking what we all know - that HMG is abjectly failing on all fronts to "keep and attract businesses"in the UK. Subsidising selected manufacturers' energy costs directly from the taxpapyer's pocket is a cunning wheeze for some, but an utter ondemnation of (the total absence of) government energy policy and investment for the last 30 years.
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope"
Well said Greek - got to be one of the best investments on the London market as it stands - great entry given all the recent updates and insights - imho
As Martin Luther King said.
PAUL1DEANO
Pensana Plc - LSE: PRE is an Institutionally backed junior, with finance, in construction
and with a big valuation upside.
FSDEA, M&G and PCA have invested US$70 million to date. Ultra-low US$217 million upfront Capex
• PRE (65%) of EBITDA £137-163 million per annum v current market cap of £100 million.
• PRE (65%) Base Case valuation US$600-1,100 million = £1.09 – 2.01 per share versus
current 31p.
Pensana will definitely be a good one to monitor over 18 months, the EBITDA will surely be compelling for instructional investment, coupled with downstream processing at Saltend UK, a NPV of many multiples of $1b should see the share price being x 10 to 20 times based on peer group comparisons with only circa 300m shares on issue.
Monitoring for a further 18 months when in production and debt free, the dividends will be multiples of the current share price.
All the best with your monitoring!
More evidence that China is waging price wars to prevent the West from investing in critical metals supply chains:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-crushed-west-race-power-050000870.html
Dominic Raab was right - we shouldn't dig deeper into the hole where China is trying to bury us.
HMG needs to recognise that the critical minerals marketplace no longer reflects reality, and we need to develop a 'rational' pricing basis for them. The simple fact they are critical implies we should incorporate a price premium for Western supply chains which is not payable for Chinese-dominated supply. The clue is in the name.
Followed by a slap with a wet fish from our China correspondent:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308615.shtml
Basically says our supply chains are too long, we don't have any industrial base anyway, and we monopolists in China are no threat at all, honestly...
Here's an alternative link to the Telegraph article which allows you to read the thing without demanding money:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1bbvpyo/british_battery_plants_given_cheap_power_deals_in/?rdt=45672
The event comes on the heels of U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to Luanda in January 2024 where he discussed bilateral relations and partnerships in the areas of infrastructure, energy, economic engagement and trade. In October 2023, the U.S. also signed a seven-side MoU with the African Development Bank, the Africa Finance Corporation, the EU and the governments of the DRC, Zambia and Angola for the Lobito Corridor. The project links the Copperbelt in southern Africa to the Atlantic Coast for the purpose of driving mineral development and international trade.
https://energycapitalandpower.africa-newsroom.com/press/angola-represents-a-strategic-opportunity-for-united-states-us-investors?lang=en
See:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/10/british-battery-plants-cheap-power-china-dependence/
Lead article in Business Telegraph today - interesting comments by PA on intention of more HMG encouragement for critical minerals UK investments through lower energy costs.
I fancy the SP to go even lower and the need to raise more funds over the rest of the year, this could go a lot lower.
I'm going to monitor this one over the coming 18mths and decide.
I should also add that loans by South African banks also qualify under the ECIC mandate not just goods, as does finance from other AFRICAN countries. However, South African content requires a minimum of 50%; overall, African content is greater than 70%. https://www.ecic.co.za/products/export-credit-insurance/
Absolutely know I have figured it correctly Theo. And you have answered your own question within your post
Could well lift the SP this morning.
Mumbles. Are you sure you have figured this correctly. ECIC would be supporting the South African exporter of mining equipment by underwriting the political risk and possibly some of the commercial risk. I say possibly because the analysts at ECIC are not, imo, likely to take Project risk. Also the deal size looks to be a max $20m, taking this from the ECIC website. I cannot see how ECIC would be reducing the interest rate on Pensana’s debt, they are not giving a guarantee to the lenders or removing project or political risk for the lenders. They are just supporting the exporter so South Africa gets the benefit of South African jobs and foreign currency. Do you agree?
The Export Credit Agency is the South African company ECIC. If a project's value is 70% or more African content. And at least 50% of South African, political and/or commercial risks can be insured against. This can reduce interest rates considerably on project finance.
https://www.ecic.co.za.
Does anyone know who the Export Credit Agency involved in the funding is?
Is it Governmental and if so is it Angolan or UK, or is it private?
Also is the Agency involved providing funding, tax credits or some form of insurance/ guarantees to the loans?
It sounds like negotiations are at an advanced stage, so hopefully not too long to wait.
Source: RNS. Don't be lazy.
>>accuracy levels associated with the BFS.
Except it's not verified by an independent Competent Person.
>>The document does exist and the figure is $3943.40.
Source: Trust Me Bro..