Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Through choice Lewis......
I know the feeling...
What choice do they have? They are balls deep.
Thank God for that!
Thank You Mumbles.
They must be confident considering they granted an extension.
Have received confirmation that the loan note extension has been granted. no further details were given, and it will not be published. Not being hidden, the question was asked, and an answer was received. I'm sure if anyone else feels like contacting the company directly, the same answer would be given.
Lewis - I asked for Eloro's rascist post to be removed. That triggered the removal of the entire string. Nothing more complicated than that.
Interesting removal of posts considering all covered the question asked in the first place.
Like you say, doesn't change anything.
I'd go one further. If we're not funded by then there will be no share price at all..
Having my post remove doesn't change the fact that the much promised funding hadn't turned up and that there has been no meaningful outcomes here for quite awhile. Come March 2025, the only thing I expect to change is the SP having fallen even further!
Succinct discussion here of China's NdPr market pricing manipulation and what needs to be done if the west wants to break China's choke-hold with their own supply chains:
https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/higher-prices-needed-to-develop-ex-china-rare-earths-supply
No punches pulled on how difficult private investment in new supply chains has become:
'At current rare earth prices no planned rare earth projects outside of China can achieve a 15% return on investment, according to Benchmark’s Rare Earth Forecast. Almost 40% of pipeline ex-China rare earth mines require prices of between $75/kg to $85/kg, according to Benchmark. 15% of this pipeline requires even higher prices, at above $85 a kilogram'.
and, even though low RE prices maintained by China are hitting their own internal producers' profits hard in the last 6 months:
'Adding to the difficulties for Western miners is the fact that Chinese mines have also been ramping up supply, despite lower prices. Beijing announced a third rare earth mining and smelter quota in late 2023, rather than the normal two per year. As a result, the PrNd market is expected to be in a surplus out to 2026'
First quarter 2024 anaysis shows that non-China investment in rare earths supply nevertheless substantially increased to $1.5bn, but largely government-sourced, with private investment trailing badly at $0.4bn.
However, according to Benchmark, 'no Chinese rare earth miners reach “good practice,” in terms of their (ESG) sustainability performance, compared to 100% of mining companies in Australia who reach this grade'.
So the answer seems to lie in 'ESG pricing' . The US is already embarked on setting up a pricing mechanism which incorporates surcharges for bad ESG fundamentals associated with China's rare earths extraction (and more notably Myanmar's), to create a level-playing field of sustainable world-market NdPr prices. This needs to happen in months rather than years.
MyIPA - I actually agree with a lot of what you have said so thank you for your contribution.
Admit I have become fixated on today's RNS as I would have expected a confirmation of an extention rather than a discussion. But as you say, the timellines suggest otherwise.
Anyhow, let's hope we speak again soon with some positive news.
I assume FSDEA not financing the whole due to risk management. Why need to if you can get another bank to - then you can lend your money out to do other things. Are they not already financing some $89m powerline upgrade or something?
Agree nonbinding is toilet paper. Surely that's not what is coming. Problem is all these mining stocks is they need the financing. Until then. doesn't matter what news, it's undervalued these days compared to what it would be in the past.
Beyond me.
As for the remainder of the finance. That comes down to the terms. A non-binding term sheet is toilet paper.
So it then comes down to project value against those terms, 60p ish was mentioned but that mayhave changed based on terms. Also pre need to keep the uk lights on and those bod incentives flowing.
Another raise? The bod loan back to themselves? This won't last until 2026 when the mine produces.
Lots of factors with limited important details omitted imho
"I just find it hard to believe that the FSDEA (Angola Sovereign Wealth Fund) puts in $80m and that ABSA Bank (Amalgamated Banks of South Africa) would never finance the remaining (reduced) capex requirement of $120m."
Agree Angola are ALL in as it would be extreme egg on face if not by now. Why they don't fund the whole project is beyon
Ah ok - which bit of vagueness in particular? timelines? I think today has helped with those. Agree this is not a main financing announcement, but an update on what would otherwise have been a loose end no doubt detractors would have whined about. It is good an update on the status of this was presented in a timely manner.
Qusetion: Why are you fixated on there needing to be a specific end date for an extension? 27th June 2023 stated it would be paid back as part of the main financing because the 15m is part of the whole capex - so on main financing I assume the FSDEA stumps up the remaining $65m and then ABSA stumps up the $120m (I assume both in tranches based on whatever agreed development timelines). So this main financing, as the timeline is uncertain for completion, means it couldn't have been set in stone anywhere. Initially 8 months. then 9 1/2 months, now what, 11 months end of May? ABSA Bank is not in Angola and is separate, so probably even more due dilligence required than if it was using a bank in Angola.
Anyway, spent enough time thinking about this and how it affects my investment. Will await finalisation of main financing.
The FSDEA, bluntly, is financing the $15m of works currently underway - which is an improvement in the infrastrcuture of Angola. It's a win/win. It's also hard to believe the FSDEA would let this project fail by not stepping in if needed.
I just find it hard to believe that the FSDEA (Angola Sovereign Wealth Fund) puts in $80m and that ABSA Bank (Amalgamated Banks of South Africa) would never finance the remaining (reduced) capex requirement of $120m.
Difficult for me to determine a percent as the company has been so vague. At the moment it is a high possibility as today's RNS does not confirm an extension or main finance.
MAA86 - what % chance are you attributing to that scenario? For me it is much less than 1%.
The financing is just the $120m, right, as $80m (inc $15m) already comes from the FSDEA:
"ABSA Bank has been mandated to arrange a US$120 million project debt facility which together with the US$80 million funding will fund the mine and processing facilities into production."
Appreciate it's been going on for 9 months, however this isn't a back of the envelope agreement it's a serious one with likely many layers of governance, legals, politics and so on.
Today's RNS, for me, solidifies the timeline of this financing to within 7-8 weeks (period from 28th Feb-19th April), likely much less than that because it is rare that a 2nd extension is longer than the first extension.
So that puts us what, between say next week and the end of May for the finalising (as stated in todays RNS).
Almost there.
Gah. '< < 1 %' meant the entire string got erased. Awful site this. cut the rest of my answer too. one sec
MAA86 - what % chance are you attributing to that scenario? For me it is
FSDEA loan to be repaid as part of the equity deal which is included in main financing. If main financing does not land then FSDEA will not release more equity and in theory can then seize the asset to cover the £15m loan. A bit worrying but that's my understanding.
So to clarify - the FSDEA were not expecting to be paid back today but at point of main financing (which I assume in Feb was thought to be completed by today), subject to some further detail probably, and have agreed to this in principle (probably some extra interest payment or some such no idea).
Sorry 27th June 2023 RNS not August (did it from memory):
"FSDEA has agreed to provide an initial US$15 million loan facility as part of a US$80 million investment (which is subject to due diligence and the finalisation of investment terms) and which will be repaid out of the larger facility, for the US$200 million staged development. "
So, in any event, the FSDEA are not expecting to be paid back until the main financing is completed. Hence, imo, FSDEA have agreed to this extension during those discussions.
Happy to hear opposing theories...
MAA86 - that's not quite what they said:
"the Company is pleased to report that discussions have been held regarding the extension of the loan facility to coincide with the anticipated finalisation of the main financing. The Company will make an announcement as soon as these arrangements are finalised."
The agreement is that the loan has been extended to coincide with the finalisation of the main financing. Whenever that would be. This is a good thing. In addition, the lender would then not expect, imo, the financing timeline to be longer than the extension already given (from 28 feb to today). And as at that point the extension thought 19th April acceptable, then surely we are within a relatively short amount of time for the project financing, especially as no next date has been given..
Also if you look at the August 2023 RNS it did say it would b repaid as part of the main financing package in any event.
Good to go from here imo.
An excellent appraisal Lizard and the update regarding the FDSEA repayment is corroborative of your view that funding will coincide with the draw downs required to meet the construction timeline. Surely, no justifiable argument to the contrary !!!
Thank You Greek Lizard.
Very informative.
Take issue with the statement regarding managements expection of the share price. What does he expect when everything is "last minute.xxx". I think it's deliberate. PA has previously hinted he wants to flush out retail investors. Let's hope somebody like the "Iron Lady" is hoovering up.
Welcome to the world of PRE.