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Released yesterday 19/05/22.
Goehring & Rozencwajg
Q1 2022 Natural Resource Market Commentary.
http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries
For those who haven’t seen it…. a real eye opener imho :)
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/podcast-adam-rozencwajg-the-dark-side-of-renewable-energy
Apologies for the duplicated paragraph.
Goehring & Rozencwajg
Opening paragraphs from the Q4 2021 Market Commentary.
‘The Distortions of Cheap Energy’
‘We are making one of the largest mal-investments ever—possibly only rivaled by the one made by banks in mortgage-backed securities 15 years ago that ultimately produced the 2008 global banking crisis and financial panic.
Over the last decade billions of dollars have been diverted from traditional energy invest ment to so-called “transition technologies,” notably wind, solar, and lithium-ion- powered electric vehicles. These technologies represent the worst of all possible worlds: not only do they generate inferior economic returns, but they are unable to address our carbon reduction needs.
Over the last decade billions of dollars have been diverted from traditional energy invest- ment to so-called “transition technologies,” notably wind, solar, and lithium-ion- powered electric vehicles. These technologies represent the worst of all possible worlds: not only do they generate inferior economic returns, but they are unable to address our carbon reduction needs.
The analysis here is some of the most important work we have done in our 30-plus years of energy investing. It builds on several previous letters in which we discussed the energy efficiency of various renewable technologies and how those renewables unfavorably compare to hydrocarbon-produced energy. Please consider what we are about to discuss with an open mind; our conclusions are original, contrarian, and extremely important. as they are likely to result in massive unintended consequences, some of which have already emerged and are painfully obvious. For example, we believe the huge investments made in renewables over the last decade are responsible for the energy crisis that is gripping Europe today. Only a month ago natural gas prices in Europe hit $50 /mmbtu—or $300 per barrels in oil terms.’
http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries
Goehring & Rozencwajg
Q1 2022 Market Commentary is not yet available but is due any day now.
Goehring & Rozencwajg
Please see below an extract from the Q4 2021 Market Commentary in respect of Wind Generators.
‘To understand why renewable energy has such a poor EROEI, consider the materials needed for a 1.5 MW windmill. The foundation alone requires 40 tonnes of steel and 600 tonnes of concrete. The tower requires another 150 tonnes of steel while the generator requires 9 tonnes of copper, the nacelle requires 45 tonnes of steel, and the rotors require 15 tonnes of carbon fiber. Since wind power is intermittent, a 1.5 MW windmill is expected to operate at a load factor of only 30%. That means a 1.5 MW windmill will produce 4 GWH of power per year over its 20-year assumed life. If we converted the electricity into barrels of oil equiv- alent (adjusting for the difference between electric and thermal energy), this 1.5 MW windmill would be equivalent to an oil well that ultimately recovered a mere 116,000 barrels – approximately 10% as much as the best Permian wells drilled today. In other words, it would take 10 windmills – each 100 m tall -- to replace the energy produced in a single Permian oil well.
Making matters worse, neither wind nor solar energy generate power when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. In order to smooth the variability, additional capacity must be built (for small regional variance) and battery back-up must be installed (for longer duration buffering between day and night). Both of these solutions are incredibly energy intensive and dramatically reduce the EROEI even further.‘