Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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In conclusion.
As far as I can see (though I'm happy to be put right), this is being done to get the majority shareholders, (the little shareholders who hold over 50% of the company, in fact) to get disillusioned, bored and sell up (hence no divs, no London re-listing, no good news, no POX being finished which would further boost company production, profile and valuation). Allowing an interested buyer over the next small number of years (two or three) to hoover up large numbers of shares at very low cost, then taking the company private without having to offer an inflated share price, or be at the risk of a hostile counter bid.
It would be great if someone from the company (they I assume know of this notice board) posted here some explanations for their present and near term actions.
Agreed, the company is now only a third of the size, but remember the drop was mostly (I'd say) due the russian connections and the war, those connections are no longer as relevant. There was shared debt of nearly 2.4$B which is now gone, the gold price has increased by nearly 20% in the last 2+ years and assuming costs are up 10% that means a healthy profit increase. It’s difficult to know the real situation until some financial reports for the company as it is now are produced, but is it really so gloomy as to drop by 10% in the last two days alone, and about 18% in the last month?
Do not factors like the now stated intention not to relist on the LSE for three years (for some unknown reason) have just as negative an effect on price? Being in the FT100 may not be possible at the present size (or in a few years) but why not the 250? Any listing such as that would expose the company to buying from the tracker funds, greater liquidity thus allowing funds possibly to be raised to more quickly finish the KAZ POX, (not one where average deal of 300 or less shares so dramatically and ridiculously move the price to such a large degree), and much greater world exposure. Check it out, gold producers are the flavour of the month and we are in this dead backwater!
Remember, the value of the company is based on many things, future guidance, profit %, risk, world events. The fact we are now a third the size does not mean that the shares should be a third the cost, it depends on many other factors. Many smaller companies have high share prices.
I don't claim to understand business very well. But when you sell 2/3 of your moneymaking machine, how would anyone expect the share price to shoot up? The management has been selling sweet dreams to the shareholders in the last year with the Russian de-investment strategy. Polymetal is not the same company anymore. That's what I understand.
Sorry to hear this but unfortunately the pillock putin has other ideas 🤷♂️
#burningfromtheinside
The article states
"The source claimed that Gurulev is pushing for an invasion of Kazakhstan because he believes pro-Ukrainian forces in there launched a recent drone strike on an oil refinery in Tartarstan."
I thought Tartastan was in Amsterdam!!
Time to start praying again - that would be one of the last things we or the world need.
Could this be playing up with POLY sp?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-planning-new-soviet-union-as-he-sets-sights-on-next-invasion-target/ar-BB1lkaM3?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=b3bf7f3786454ae68cffb78f03a9464d&ei=14
POLY shareholder register is all over the place. The company articles states it is the duty of the company to keep members register up to date.
POLY have failed miserably on this front and I feel it is getting away with it under less than adequate supervision from authorities in Kaz. It suits POLY management as well as they can push through their agenda without any opposition from retail investors eg. RUSSIA SALE STITCH UP; which is a betrayal given the loyalty they have shown.
Filing an official complain with Kaz Stock Exchange may be the only avenue left for stock holders.
I no longer think that the share price of this stock has any connection to the reality of it's present, let alone future value. The constant price attrition inspite of better trading conditions is an indicator of this as far as I can see.
It's being manipulated to benefit the new owner (or others) I'd say, to build a large positions at the lowest cost possible. (hence no disclosure of their buy in price). That this may, when it hits a described percentage allow even more control than presently is unknown to me.
The only hope I see now is to get the management to register ALL shareholders allowing proper vote/s on this new direction of business.
Such a shame.
Gold price now nearly $300 oz higher than average for 2023. If maintained, through 2024 the sold Russian business will add another $600m+ on its $1bn plus EBITDA achieved in 2023.
Of the sale, Nesis said the following in February:
"Your investment certainly has been decimated, but management was not the root cause of this destruction."
Management may not have been the root cause, but their performance in managing the sale fell considerably short of what holders expected to say the least.
Gold price is now trading at record levels but SP is moving backwards. New strategy and sense of direction for the scaled down business can't come soon enough.
ARE YOU LISTENING MR NESIS?
Even more telling when you've never been invested - sign of a broke troll...
As you were.
Thanks for the input 007, Jotom & John
GOLD: $ 2,280.15
Poor Razza still living in the dark past 🤷♂️
#burningfromtheinside 😂😂😂
The game was set with the nato frothers in the beginning im afraid. they and the mods here created the scene with their attempts to shout down the truthers
as expected they are all gone now. just like the ukrainian army.
How bizarre that some people still think this is an appropriate place to carry on their pointless arguments for and against Russia/Ukraine. It will solve absolutely nothing and just bores the pants of genuine investors who have an interest in the Polymetal share price. Enough already.
Https://www.ft.com/content/59298650-540a-43cd-86f8-a6c6db0aa906
An article about how every gulf State is investing in mining now.
Note this section:
Mark Bristow, Barrick Gold’s chief executive, says that western fund managers’ demand for dividends has “crimped” the industry’s appetite for growth, leaving the mining sector desperate for long-term financing. The Gulf’s involvement is “going to help us open up frontiers,”.
While he is not talking about Omani investment specifically, reading between the lines he hints that the gulf investors are not interested in dividends. This seems to agree with what I said earlier about their long term plans.
Seems to me that the 25% holder is in control.
Poly's financials including earnings for 2024 and after will likely be greatly influenced by whatever grand plans the board and management come up with to (re-)grow the company (K-POX and new mineral resources). I think it's prudent to wait until those details are announced to make more informed predictions.
Thanks for the reply 007. Any forecast for earnings in 2024 ?
The 2023 $439M "EBITDA" POLY touts is not accounting standards EBITDA. That's POLYs "adjusted EBITDA" which gooses up their EBITDA number in several ways, standard EBITDA is lower. And even after their accounting preferences/tricks, their "Adjusted EBITDA" for their Kazakh mining operations was down 15% year over year. For 2024 POLY has projected even lower production and higher costs in Kazakhstan. While higher prices for gold sales will help, 2024 will also involve higher costs and lower production.
Furthermore, POLY will be need to spend large amounts on the K pox and new resources to mine going forward. So don't plan on any significant dividends for quite awhile.
Https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-putin-may/
Zelensky drops his demand for a return to 1991 borders, he is now happy with 2022 borders. LOL
If you ask me Russia is doing a FABulous job. A few more bombs and he will accept the 2024 borders.
Russia are very good diplomats they know how to negotiate FABulously. 😂😂
#RealityInterrupts
Thanks John.
I am wondering what the gap will be between EBITDA and Earnings (as a way to value the share and dividend potential) going forward.
EBITDA in 2024 could be over $500m USD if the gold price stays high and costs don't increase too much. Any ideas on how to convert or estimate earnings ? I guess many factors like debt payments (should be lower?), taxes (higher?), capex (only included as debt payments?).
If we estimate earnings at 40% of EBITDA then we will have EPS of around $0.4 (div of $0.20) which would give a current P/E ratio of 9 which seems high for a company which still has plenty of risk.
Anytime I make a buy you have to make a comment out of jealousy. Do you recall your £200 buy you posted on gst? That is really skint isn't it ? Wouldn't waste my time with that. Sorry little kitten.
No it churns you - you've only ever told lies and been caught out. The last buy you posted on gst was for £200 and its in your history. You're broke 100% happy to place a bet on it that you can't make a 10k buy anywhere and if you do ill double the amount on solg if you like ending 914 if you like. You're skint!!!!!
😉
Keep spouting rubbish tiny I know it churns you up inside 💋😂
Are you sure you don’t want any rent 😉