Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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LSE is not showing three holding RNS, a lot has changed, looks like above 80%^ is with major shareholders,
I don't like discussing shorting as it hardly does Polygon any harm to have it publicy known that their position has increased but I've noticed how frequently small 7000 sell trades go through. Not big obviously but if persistent and strategically timed does anyone know if this could be evidence of the dark arts?
Kenji,
There is also a 1.5 million payment for services
In addition, IRC is expected to contribute towards professional fees and expenses of approximately US$1.5 million incurred by Petropavlovsk in connection with the refinancing
Thanks PVX233, I've downloaded and found the info you referred to.
I do not agree with your maths though!
3.07% of $240m is $7,368,000, so $7.37m rather that $8.7m.
Kenji,
It was mentioned in H1 results..
Under the New Recourse Agreement, IRC has an obligation to pay the Company a monthly fee to compensate Petropavlovsk for entering into the guarantee of the two facility agreements
-- It has been agreed with IRC and K&S that the fee will be calculated as 3.07% per annum, commencing 12 March 2019, on the maximum amount that may be payable by the Company under the facility agreements of US$240 million
PVX233, You wrote on 4th Nov:
"Yes, they (IRC) are paying POG $8.9 million per year for the security."
I have not managed to find confirmation of this in POG's recent reports. I did find a smaller amount stated as guarantee fees ($6m already paid and $5m to pay by Mar 2020), but could not find any reference to ongoing annual payments.
Can you tell me where you got this info from?
Agree with all you said there PVX. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. They took 2 big gambles. 1 certainly looks to be paying off. Jury still out on the other but improving hopefully.
"And the debt isn't 240 million: it stands at 229 million. "
I did not say that the debt was $240m. I said that the guarantee was $240m. If IRC fail to make future payments, charges can be added which can push the size of IRC's debt above $240m, and we are liable for the full amount of that debt.
If we add prosperity , looks like institutional investors have surpassed 80%. Though prosperity capital management holding more, probably some more institutionals below 3%
Also there has been massive buying in POG recently. At some point the sellers will dry up and want a higher price for their shares. This could explode upwards any day. Hedging expires in 7 weeks, too.
The Russian connection and the geopolitics hasn't stopped Poly rising to 6 billion market cap. X20 of POG!
The problem with POG is that management were over-ambitious with POX and IRC. IRC was clearly a mistake and POX was clearly not, but it took a long time to realise. Now IRC isn't as bad and POX is a huge success. And gold is on the rise... In the round a positive backdrop imo...
Yes, they are paying POG $8.9 million per year for the security. And the debt isn't 240 million: it stands at 229 million. Plus IRC does have intrinsic worth and is increasing production. Liability for the full amount is extremely doubtful.
Even if it comes to pass, EBITDA in 2020 should be about 400 million. ev/ebitda ratio of 4.7 this year and 3.5 next year, about 2 the year after. Poly on 9! POG's POX plant worth close to a billion US. At least that's what it would cost you to build it now.
Looking more likely that gold will be 1600 soon and POG's production rising to 700koz in 2021. Over a billion in revenue.
There are risks of course as with all investments, but POG surely is worth more than 320 million given its recovery trajectory...
Kenj, IRC is not an issue anymore, you might hear anytime 30 to $50 proceeds from its divestment, that would be a bonus. If even divestment does not happen , they are successfuly ramping up and paying their easy instalments, and paying to POG fee as well.
"there are more positives, they want dispose off IRC sooner than later. "
Of course they do KRSS.
IRC has been a chain around POG's neck for many years now. Last year, POG spoke about getting rid of our $240m guarantee for the IRC loan. What happened? The loan was renewed and we can now reduce our IRC share holding from 31% down to 20%, but we still liable for the full $240m guarantee. So basically it was all hot air and wishful thinking then, and it is the same now.
Bet my Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts get hacked now!!
Freddie I'm sure it will come. I truly believe we've turned the corner and can look forward to growth. The only thing that seriously worries me here is geopolitical tensions with Trump and Putin's recklessness.
Yes schedulike i bought a few in the rights issue but not my full entitlement , ive sort of accepted the loss now so any rise will be grateful
Rusty I'm generally not one for conspiracy theories on SP's, you see it all over LSE and half the time it's just PI frustration but I do think the trading in POG since it has been range-bound looks odd. Could it be to do with these big players taking positions? I don't know. I would love to know if anyone has an informed opinion on Polygon. Why are they still short on POG when gold looks so hot. They're out on their own in terms of disclosed positions and apparently diagrammatically opposed to all the institutions who have increased holdings here.
Rustybucket, of course it has not risen, that’s why it very cheap compared to peers and competitors. It will produce more Gold than CEY. As Mentioned in report, if Russia bans exporting concentrate to China, u know POG’s POGs hub has double capacity than Polymetal’s one.
KRSS Since hitting 10p towards end of June share price has stayed between 9p and 10p. So in 4 months it has not risen. That is not a rising share price, its a stagnant one. Once its 11p and up its back on an upward trend, but its flatlining at the moment.
I hate posting things like this but, its reality.
I want a higher share price, but lets stick to facts and reality please.
Freddie did you take any in the 5p equity raise? I can't remember how much I threw in now but it got my average down to 20p. I'm hopeful we'll pass that in the not too distant future with POX and a strong GP (shame the need for more concentrate will be a bit of a drag on fully exploiting POX). I've been here so long I suppose you should factor in inflation and the opportunity cost of bank interest rates before jumping for joy if and when you hit your average though!
Someone seems to be mopping up shares on the cheap. If pog continues progress and the irc noose weakens (or goes completely hopefully) could be a significant re-rating here. God knows us long term holders deserve it!!
Basically there is more good news than bad. It's why the share price is rising.
POX can process 500koz, with non refractory that's almost 700koz with gold probably 1600 that's more than 1 billion in revenue..
Well im hoping for a quid lol will get all my money back from the last 11 years !!
I have Just read the half year report again, there are more positives, they want dispose off IRC sooner than later. POX can process and produce 500000 ounces annualy. They only hedge one third of Gold. Polymetal high grades refractory mine is very close by.
KRSS Your post its all set for re rate from 24p to 70p.
Ia dont know what planet you are on, but its not earth.
24p will be a hurdle, 70p in my opinion a near impossibility, be happy to be proved wrong.