Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Dead right oiluser I also expect placing and RI to be at or very slightly below par, the opportunity here is to buy shares in a much larger and more cash generative business, there is no need for a discounted placing. If Zama comes in beforehand we could even be looking at at higher than current placing price
I was expecting 350-400m new shares. Anything less than that will be a bonus I suppose. I suppose we need all this court stuff to be wrapped up first, so earliest we might hear is March? By then the share price could be +/- 30% from today knowing PMO.
That about tallies with my best guess of between 300 & 350. I would have hoped we would be placing at or near current level.
Very rough back of fag packet ...... $500M raise is approx £380M, so 380M shares if placing\RI at £1, 345M shares if placing at £1.10, 318M shares if placing at £1.20. The split of the $500M (Placing vs RI) will impact dilution (if you fully subscribe to RI), I’ve assumed $300M placing and $200M RI just to try and guesstimate how much I’d need to plough back in to the rights issue.
All
So what is posters estimation of how many new shares to be issued. Estimated nav of acquisitions is over a billion $.
This is correct Tuscan. Final acquisition price should be pretty much covered by the $500 million equity raise due to adjustments.
Couple points:
Woodmac analysis of the BP deal gives it an NPV10 value of over $650m, which we will end up paying a lot less than, plus the highlighted that this didn’t factor in the significant additional value of our tax credits. So it seems like PMO got a good price.
Also think if Zama comes in selling for over $400 mil (pretax) this could jump to 125-130p. Less than that and I think it might be a sell the news type thing. Let’s see.
Cheers Tuscan I m having a day of getting things wrong so this may well be the case mate sorry
Grippe I don’t think the Zama sale is at all connected to the bridging loan / BP & Dana acquisitions. In the webcast on the 7th Premier said Zama proceeds would be used to pay down debt. The bridging loan is all about covering the delta between the $500M equity raise and the final deal / purchase price for the acquisition - there needs to be a true up at completion that factors in cash flows from the BP assets since Jan1st 2019 which is expected to negate the need for any of the bridging loan. This seems to be an important aspect that may not have been recognised by many, we will like get a further $300M off the acquisition price due to these cash flows as the deal is dated from over a year ago (01/01/2019). Im pretty sure I have this right but we’ll worth a listen to the webcast and decide for yourself, the link to it is on the Premier Oil website
They must have a rough guide of who's buying it and what price for by now the bridging loan is for 200 and odd million so guessing sale price must be roughly 300 million then take the tax off which is roughly 30% in Mexico