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My honest opinion FWIW is that no-one is thinking about takeovers at the moment, least of all Peel. It seems to me that Peel are reluctant to fork out about £12M for their 50% of the SPV for the FOAK, so I certainly wouldn't expect them to be able to find sufficient funding for a buy-out that would satisfy PHE shareholders, especially the White family.
It is unlikely Peel or Linde will buy out PHE because market cap is high (based on investors like us speculating that one day it’ll be worth over a billion quid). I do think they’ll signal a future takeover at some point by buying a 5-10% shareholding. When this happens then we’ll know but until then we can speculate this all the way up to many times where we sit today
Val: Regarding your 20.01 post and Peel takeover of PHE:
I would imagine its all about risk and reward for Peel and until the FOAK has been proven for commerciality and scalability, the likely cost prior to FOAK is outweighed by the present risk.
If a buyout is their intention, with the delays around financial closure for Protos, they are not putting too much credence on the possible progress that HUI could make with PHE, because if tangible deals are done in Europe then the price for Peel to pay just escalates, IMO, and the buyout gets more complex.
Just think the issue with Peel is that they have been slow in getting their Plastic Park strategy together (e.g. fragmented planning applications) and that has delayed the firm financial commitment from themselves and potential partners. Still think Progressive Energy may be in the frame to partner with Peel to fund the Plastic Park, we shall see.
Led Zep 9.55
Peel have several options. If they really do intend to build 70 DMGs around the country, they would pay £35m per annum in royalties to PHE for the privilege. IF there cost of capital is say 10%, the NPV of that royalty stream is £350m. The company's market cap is only £160m. Conclusion - probably better to buy the whole thing rather than pay royalties just on 70 units. Peel would get worldwide royalty income as well as saving themselves the UK royalty and the exclusivity fee.
So why are they hesitating? Perhaps they do not have access to £200m or so. Perhaps they think PHE shares may fall in value of they stand back a while longer? Perhaps they think they can do it without PHE ? What are your thoughts?
It all seemed to go into limbo after DR left, and I always had a suspicion that his leaving was because of TY. So all in all, TY hasn't done this company any favours, and he's still around as consultant!
Previously I was of the opinion that the stepping down of TY would facilitate the conclusion of the financial closure, but as things stand, with the lack of appointment of a CEO, the FC is somewhat further into the future than the end of this month, IMO.
I would imagine that Peel and potential partners for the Plastic Park, will want to see the whites of the new CEO's eyes before committing to a finance deal.
In addition, the planning application for the additional elements for the Plastic Park have only been recently submitted and it could be that Peel are waiting for the outcome of that planning, before committing to financing for any element of the Park.
IMO, Peel were slow in transitioning their strategy from stand alone processing to a fully integrated Plastic Park, which has resulted in more and more delay to the funding of a DMG.
Running in parallel to this PHE have had the CEO debacle (12 months nearly, since DR announced his stepping down) whilst the media is full of climate and plastic discussion, leading up to the annual climate conference being held on our doorstep, without a leader to promote PHE's cause.
Dr.A's approach for waking up the company is up for debate but they do need a severe kick up the arse IMO, as the communication regarding what is actually happening at Protos and the real reason for delays is being kept under wraps and will just lead to more speculation.
Very poor show from PHE considering they are sitting on global climate changing technology when almost all the world is becoming acutely climate aware.