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So it looks like Coltrane took some of Invesco's shares yesterday (up from 6.04% holding to 7.17%).
swings about 3% seems unstable - my guess is the range of 375 - 410
It’s outrageous that at present NSF is trading at 80% of its price pre-PFG bid.
And PFG is only trading at 75% of its price pre-bid. Despite clearly being a much better investment than NSF.
Keep saying it but this is a £6+ share trading at sub-£4. If I’m honest I hope the price stays low until end of the month as will be reinvesting the dividend immediately on 27th along with a further top up if we are still sub-£4 at that time.
So DJI up over 400 points and STJ my only other share (not relevant I know) is up 5% but PFG down 2 and I wasn’t even planning to buy any today though I didn’t buy STJ yesterday so it makes sense for that to have gone up
I think it’s been eloquently explained on these pages that it’s now a long term wait and hope for the SP to reflect apparent fundamentals so I’m going to lie low watch and wait Remember Remember the 7th November
No you’re bang on I was just thinking maybe I should let you know when I plan to sell some as the price would invariably rise!! Sadly I may buy one more time so will give you warning as after that the price should start to recover ??
More importantly, Barrieprov, can you tell us when you next plan to top up, seeing as you have, ahem, history with the share price falling immediately afterwards? Only kidding, mate :-)
As far as I can see it’s just a statutory disclosure requirement to allow shareholders to calculate their % holding and whether they have to disclose exceeding certain thresholds
If shares are held in treasury it will affect the number that is used to divide the shareholding by to determine % holding
Thresholds are 5% 10% 15% and so on and disclosures need to be made within 4 working days
Doesn’t necessarily mean something going on as far as I’m aware but maybe something to keep an eye on
can some one explain the latest RNS to me please, and it importance or not. Thanks
4m shares went through today on NSF around 9.18 @ 40p so the brokers are still working the order (I suppose?). Interestingly there are off-book trades which mean a human being is likely involved and they are hardly likely to go public unless required by regulations. They can also delay reporting so the deal may have been done yesterday, or Friday at a stretch.
The media hasn't really picked up on it which is understandable as the amounts are small compared to a company like PFG and there is plenty to keep the pundits occupied with something called Brexit.
I was hoping the Woodford sale might have smoked out something interesting or impacted PFG but it appears that PFG is getting on with the knitting. That's normal and we might have little to keep us interested until the next update on November 7th. However, with Woodford involved I expect we'll hear stuff before then.
No news is good news imo. We've slipped back to boring and we should be grateful. There is a potential Woodford overhang which will be a brake on a rise but good figures will take the spotlight away.
It supports the argument share prices strongly rebound when he sells out. Can interpret it either way:
1) Woodford is selling out of shares but holding onto those he sees as the most undervalued. PurpleBricks and NSF are both losing cash and in my view in risk of going belly up. So Woodford selling down implies he thinks similar. The fact he is holding PFG is a positive in the longer term as clearly he want to hold PFG until the last given it’s so undervalued and still has chance to give him some dividend income and upside in share price (particularly post Brexit)
2) Short term that’s bad news for us as the market senses he’ll ultimately have to sell, whether it’s before Xmas or next year, so price will be depressed until that happens.
I mentioned previously if I was Schroders I’d be talking to Coltrane and Blackrock about offering to take out all of Woodford’s holding perhaps at a 15% premium on today’s price at around £4.50. If they did this then they are still getting a bargain I’d in doing so I imagine the share price would almost instantly shoot higher than the purchase price perhaps into the £6-7 range which is where it should be priced now in my honest opinion of the fundamentals.
Good and there it was I thought because I’d bought some PFG yesterday at 389.9 I’d put my curse on the share price once again
is that good or bad for us, seeing as NSF is up 5% as I type?
Well now we know. Woodford has gone from 23.9% to less than 5% in NSF whilst Alchemy Special opportunities now owns 19.25%. Woodford still holds a rump amount and I'd expect an arrangement with Alchemy might be an agreement for him not to sell the balance for a period of time. The market will be left confused. Does it mean that for now he doesn't need to sell PFG? Does Woodford consider PFG the better bet of the two? Is he actively trying to place some PFG stock? Is he struggling to get the price he wants for PFG etc............?
It reinforces my position. Alchemy are not fools and if they can pay good money for NSF then the intrinsic value of PFG is higher following their interest in the sector. NSF is also small enough and badly run (imo) so that Alchemy can live up to their name. I doubt they have the leverage to attack PFG. Personally, I think their task will be more like polishing a t*rd.
I just keep trying to think prospective PE, dividend yield and cover and hopefully it’ll come good eventually ??
Just chill it will happen.... when value stocks become back in fashion just see what happens. We’re getting very near the end of the growth cycle with some outrageous valuations on stock that will ultimately disappoint. The problem is we’ve all seen the rapid rise in The so-called tech stock and our expectations are in line with that thinking. I admit I’am no spring chicken and been investing in markets for a few decades but patience is a virtue when investing. The investment managers I use to look after my core portfolio have switched from growth funds to value which should be a large flashing red light to tell you what’s around the next corner on the investment front, PF falls firmly into the value sector with hopefully very few disrupters. In tough times PF will never be short of potential customers... money lending never never goes out of fashion so sit tight stop thinking unbelievably short term and let the markets play out there ill conceived rationale.
384 now. Down >5%.
Farce.
Back into 380s now. FTSE up 1.5%. PFG down 4%+.
I pray for the day when I don’t look at this share and just think ‘you are dog****’.
I assume volatility is going to be de rigeur for some time but while not recommending a buy on these pages I’m going to keep accumulating in a small way and pin my hope on there being some cheer on 7 November ??
yep! and Amigo and NSF are up. We struggle to retain any modest rise and drop back way behind the others when we do.
....didn’t even need Baz to curse it this time. Friday’s 3.5% gain completely wiped out in morning trading.
It's minor but could possibly imply that NSF are sloppy when it comes to keeping investors up to date. On the NSF website they have Woodford with 25.3 and the FT had the percentage at 23.90.
Something to think about. In 2016 I helped a distant relative sort out the estate of her father. Although he died in 2016 he had a debt relief order dated 2014. He also had 3 outstanding debts with: Vanquis, Aqua and CapitalOne all taken out after the DRO which included utilities, HMRC, 2 debt recovery agencies and even a Provident Personal Credit. The fact that he still got loans from Vanquis and other sub-prime lenders shows that the system needed a complete overhaul.
I would imagine (hope) that the recent investigations by the FCA makes it much harder for those in debt to get multiple loans. PFG was hit early and hard so lessons will have been learned. Action was long overdue so perhaps the next phase of sub-prime will be built on a more sustainable and honest business.
Thanks mk for spotting my typo.
Latest RNS 8th July 2019 Woodford owned 74,591,242= 23.90%
Correction.
1. Invesco 89.32m 28.2%
2. Woodford 74.59m 23.90%
3. Aberforth 40.98m 13.13%
4. Marathon 39.55m 12.10%
Possibly the Sunday papers might pick up something as even if this isn't Woodford related (unlikely imo) anything close to him attracts speculation. These are (were) the 4 major shareholders:
1. Invesco 89.32m 28.2%
2. Woodford 23.90m 25.3%
3. Aberforth 40.98m 13.13%
4. Marathon 39.55m 12.10%
So either a combination of the last two or more likely the first two with imo Woodford being the favourite. There was talk (NSF leaked?) at the time of the proposed NSF bid that parts of PFG could be sold off to New Day. Karma that it might well have been the precursor to the demise of NSF. Chunky amounts like this don't get traded every day and the small premium for NSF is still a lot cheaper than its price in February. The field of sub-prime is winnowing down and those left have had the resilience to withstand regulatory assault. Monday will be interesting.
For NSF that is . . .