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Research report & audio summary: ***************************detailed-result-full/PBEE/682
PensionBee Group plc posted FY22 results this morning. Revenue increased by 38% to £17.7m (2021: £12.8m), adjusted EBITDA loss was £(19.5)m up from £(16.4)m reflecting continued investment in growth, statutory Loss before Tax was £(22.4)m. Assets under Administration increased by 17% year on year to £3.0bn (2021: £2.6bn), driven predominantly by strong net flows from new and existing customers. The Invested Customer base increased by 56% year on year to 183,000 (2021: 117,000). So the business is growing solidly but is not yet delivering a profit, nor will it anytime soon. Share price is down around 40% from the generous IPO price in Q2 2021, but valuation still looks stretched with PS ratio over 14x and comfortably bottom decile for the sector. PBEE looks like a company with a lot of potential for the long run, but is still way too expensive. Monitor for now.
***************************detailed-result-full/PBEE/682
PensionBee Group plc posted FY22 results this morning. Revenue increased by 38% to £17.7m (2021: £12.8m), adjusted EBITDA loss was £(19.5)m up from £(16.4)m reflecting continued investment in growth, statutory Loss before Tax was £(22.4)m. Assets under Administration increased by 17% year on year to £3.0bn (2021: £2.6bn), driven predominantly by strong net flows from new and existing customers. The Invested Customer base increased by 56% year on year to 183,000 (2021: 117,000). So the business is growing solidly but is not yet delivering a profit, nor will it anytime soon. Share price is down around 40% from the generous IPO price in Q2 2021, but valuation still looks stretched with PS ratio over 14x and comfortably bottom decile for the sector. PBEE looks like a company with a lot of potential for the long run, but is still way too expensive. Monitor for now.
Research report & audio summary: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/growth-and-delivery-driving-strong-investor-interest
In FY22 (to 31 Dec 22) PensionBee continued to rapidly grow, despite market falls, and gain market share (page 2) in the structurally growing £700bn target market of transferable DC pensions (page 12). Invested customers grew 56% to 183k, AUA 17% to £3.03bn (net inflows +£863m, market movements -£424m), and revenue 38% to £17.7m. Adjusted EBITDA started to ‘turn the corner’ towards profitability and is forecast to turn positive on a monthly basis by the end of 2023. The net cash position is robust at £21m with no new cash raising envisaged.
We also flag the encouraging jump in investor interest in PBEE shares - especially after its Jan 23 trading update which showed the path to profitability was on track - with the recent price rise accompanied by strong volumes. On top of its fundamentals, PensionBee’s inclusion in the FTSE All-Share and FTSE SmallCap indices from 20 Mar 23 should be another positive for the share price.
PensionBee’s customer acquisition growth path compared to incumbents indicates it is rapidly gaining market share. In H2 of 2022, it added 24k net new invested customers (H2-22 annualised growth rate of 30%):
• This was more than double the total number of net new D2C platform clients (pension and other clients) added by AJ Bell (10k, which translated to an H2-22 annualised growth rate of 7%).
• And it was only a little less than the total number of net new clients (pension and other clients) added by the UK’s largest D2C investment platform, Hargreaves Lansdown (HL), which added 31k (an H2-22 annualised growth rate of 4%), and much higher than HL’s new pension accounts (13k net new SIPP accounts and 16k ISA and other accounts).
Our forecasts remain unchanged, as does our fundamental value of 150p per share.
...........consistently tiny trades pushing the SP back up.
Done for long enough, peeps will believe and confidence will miraculously return. ;-)
Sign up to register here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/pensionbee-fypresentation-17march2023
PensionBee Group plc, a leading online pension provider, will be conducting an investor presentation covering the company's Full Year results for the period to 31st December 2022.
The online presentation will be hosted by Romi Savova, founder & CEO, and Christoph Martin, CFO.
This event will take place at 11.00am on Friday 17th March.
The webinar is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end.
Romina Savova - Founder & CEO on the BBC 10pm news tonight .
With the the chancellor.
She still holds 38%
Link here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/customers-56-aua-17-in-turbulent-2022
PensionBee’s trading update covering FY22 (to 31 Dec 22) shows continuing strong growth, despite large market falls during the period, and continuing market share gains. Invested customers grew 56% y-o-y to 183k (31 Dec 21: 117k), while AUA grew 17% to £3.03bn (31 Dec 21: £2.59bn) with net inflows of +£863m and market movements of -£424m. Net inflows were particularly impressive, with PensionBee’s net inflow rate far higher than incumbents, and the absolute size of its net inflows not far off the pension inflows of the largest incumbent platforms. Revenue increased 38% y-o-y to c£18m (FY21: £12.8m).
Adjusted EBITDA has started to ‘turn the corner’ towards profitability. In FY21 it was -£16.4m, in H1-22 -£14.9m and in H2-22 -£5m (FY22 -£19m). Management have reiterated confidence in achieving +ve adj. EBITDA on a full-year basis in FY24, the target set at the time of PensionBee’s IPO (Apr 21). Further evidence of operating leverage has been reported with the number of invested customers per staff member increasing 31% (970 vs. 743).
Our top-line forecasts have been revised downwards in line with FY22 actuals and reduced marketing spend guidance, but this is offset to a degree by reduced cost guidance - our fundamental valuation reduces slightly from 160p to 150p.
This share sucks serious rrrse.
Look at the accounts! Losing money hand over fist. Please my pension is not here!
Is EquityDevelopment is being paid by pensionbee to pump out these bullish articles lol? It says they are non-independent and classed as marketing material.
Eek.
Red flag that their investor presentations do not mentoin how they calculate the LTV/CAC ratio.
I contacted management over this and they responded:
They mention it in their investor call and they are calculating it wrong.
Detailed Access:
[1] URL: "https://www.pensionbee.com/investor-relations/results-and-reports"
[2] Item: Please kindly click on the first item called "3Q 2022 Results Presentation Recording"
[3] Timestamp: Please kindly move to 33 minute 45 second of that recording. You will find the answer to your LTV question there
My response:
I listened to the call and I have concerns with how you are calculating the LTV value.
You are taking £80 * 20 years = £1600 and calling that the LTV for the customer. You then divide this by your CAC of £246 and get a ratio of: 6.5
However the £1600 is future cash flows from the customer and you are NOT discounting this to your company's WACC which is giving a vastly inflated number.
You have to discount that future cash flow back to today's rate because
I have calculated your WACC to be around 10% given the risk free rate + ERP and given that you are a growth small company.
Discounting £1600 at 10% gives a LTV of £551.
Which actually results in a much less attractive LTV:CAC ratio of 2.2.
Here's the spreadsheet by David Skok: https://www.forentrepreneurs.com/ltv/
> In addition, because you are modeling revenues that will occur far in the future, you will need to apply a discount rate to account for the risks and time value of money. We recommend using a 10% discount rate, but this may differ depending on your own cost of capital.
This company is touting attractive LTV/CAC ratio and hiding their calculations and then giving the wrong calculation on earnings calls.
This is a massive red flag imo. The unit economics are not as great as they are touting which means slower growth in the future.
In Q3 of FY22 (to 30 Sep 22), customer growth continued to impress with invested customers* growing 9% in the quarter to 174k (30 Jun 22: 159k) and 68% y-o-y (30 Sep 21: 104k).
Notably, the absolute number of new customers added in Q3 (15k), was almost as high as the largest D2C market incumbent, Hargreaves Lansdown (17k) and far more than AJ Bell (8k). This is even more impressive considering PensionBee only offers pension products.
We have updated our forecasts to account for current customer numbers and AUA levels (with the latter being negatively affected by market falls). Hence our revenue forecast for FY22 reduces from £18.8m to £17.7m. However, this is offset to a degree by reduced costs with PensionBee managing to maintain strong customer growth on lower marketing spend (it now expects to spend £17m in FY22 on marketing versus £19m in our previous forecasts).
The above, coupled with the re-introduction of the increase in corporation tax rate in 2023 results in our fundamental valuation reducing slightly to 160p per share (178% above the last closing price).
Link to research note: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/strong-growth-customer-acquisition-costs-fall
New detailed research report post H1 results from Equity Development has now been published - full link here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/guidance-re-iterated-positive-adj.-ebitda-by-end-23
"Guidance re-iterated, positive adj. EBITDA by end-23"
Brief summary of report: PensionBee’s H1-22 results confirm the momentum of its growth journey as it continues to disrupt the pensions market and drive the consolidation of UK consumers’ multiple pension pots. Its most fundamental growth driver, the number of invested customers1, grew 72% y-o-y to 159k on 30 Jun 22 from 92k on 30 Jun 21 (+36% over H1 from 117k on 31 Dec 21) and remains on track to meet our forecast of 200k by the end of FY22. Impressive marketing agility was evident. The data platform was used to rapidly refine targeting towards a younger audience, with older consumers less likely to take decisions during the market volatility during H1.
138 trades of 1 single share each in the last hour. I have never seen so many single shares traded before. At £10 a trade that's £1380 trading costs for £107.64 worth of stock... Very strange.
If you missed the live event, you can watch a replay of leading online pension provider PensionBee Group's investor presentation following the release of their Trading Update for the six months to 30th June 2022.
Romi Savova (CEO & founder) and Christoph Martin (CFO) discussed the financial and operational highlights of the period, including the momentum in growth of customer base, and the resilience of Assets under Administration (AuA) despite ongoing market falls. They reiterated their ambition to be EBITDA positive by the end of 2023.
The full video (below) is divided into chapters:
0:00:03 Overview of 1H 2022 - financial & operational highlights
0:07:24 Financial Update
0:17:32 Outlook
0:20:11 Questions & Answers
Link to video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/pensionbee-investor-presentation-q2tradingupdate-july22
Fairly simple explanation here I think.
2021 full year adjusted EBITDA was -£16.4m, cash burn was -£20m
2022 half year results announced on Thursday had doubled adjusted EBITDA losses to -£15m, so the assumption has to be cash burn was -£18-20m
Cash at year end of 31/12 was £43m
So based on the half year burn rate they have ~£25m left
That equates to 6-12 months runway, so looks like a capital raise soon and it’s not a good time to be raising capital.
Hence the share price is de-rating in anticipation.
This seems well oversold now, I don't understand this price movement.
There are some humongous trades going through with little effect on the SP. Hmmm.
#PBEE PensionBee has continued to grow its customer base in line with targets, with a 72% annual increase in invested customers1 to 159k on 30 Jun 22 from 92k on 30 Jun 21 (+36% over H1-22 from 117k on 31 Dec 21). It remains on track to meet our forecast of 200k by the end of FY22. Registered customers2 (a ‘top of sales funnel’ metric) grew 66% y-o-y from 538k on 30 Jun 21 to 897k (+36% over H1 from 658k on 31 Dec 21). The rate of customer growth is evidence that the post-IPO ramp-up in marketing spend is having the planned ‘scale-up’ impact.
While PensionBee has certainly met our growth forecasts in terms of customer numbers, market falls have pegged back AUA growth, and we have reduced our AUA, revenue and profit growth forecasts accordingly, and will refine these, and our longer-term forecasts with H1-22 results on 22 Sep 22.
Our AUA forecast for end-FY22 reduces to £3.6bn (from previous forecast of £4.3bn but +39% over FY21); revenue forecast for FY22 reduces to £18.8m (from £21.1m but +47% over FY21, with PensionBee guiding for revenue to be in the range of £17-£20m); and our adjusted EBITDA forecast reduces to -£20.9m (from -£16.4m, with PensionBee still guiding positive adj. EBITDA by FY24). In turn, our fundamental value adjusts to 200p per share from 230p.
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/customer-growth-on-track-markets-slow-aua-gains
Leading online pension provider PensionBee Group plc will be conducting an investor presentation on Friday 22nd July at 10.00am following the release of their Trading Update for the six months to 30th June 2022.
PensionBee's CEO & founder, Romi Savova, and Christoph Martin (CFO) will be presenting for the company.
The webinar is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end.
You can sign up to register below: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/pensionbee-22july-investorpresentation
Everything has been like that today. This has very small volume for such a big drop.
What a shower of brown stuff this is.
PensionBee's CEO & founder, Romi Savova, and CFO Christoph Martin hosted an investor presentation to introduce the company to investors.
The team discussed their key investment highlights, the size of their market and growth drivers, their scalable technology platform, as well as their recurring revenue business model with attractive unit economics. The management also answered questions from investors.
The video recording has been divided into chapters as per below:
0:00:03 PensionBee Video
0:02:16 Overview from Romi Savova (CEO) - Key Investment Highlights
0:04:18 UK's Only Dedicated Online Personal Pension Provider
0:07:15 £1 trillion Market, Structural Growth Drivers
0:09:23 Mass Market Opportunity
0:11:05 Data-led Customer Acquisition
0:12:22 Scalable Technology Platform
0:15:14 Recurring Revenue Business Model, Highly Scalable (Christoph Martin, CFO)
0:19:27 Attractive Unit Economics & Long Term Recurring Revenue Growth
0:23:14 Experienced Senior Leadership, culture and ESG leadership
0:25:51 Questions & Answers
Link to full video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/pensionbee-an-introduction-investor-presentation-june-2022
Think this has hit its support.
Unsure as to why there's not greater volume of trades. As Buffet recognised, share price is not an accurate indicator of true company value. The business is showing great growth and about to return profit. Can only see this going one way.
Leading online pension provider PensionBee Group plc will be conducting an investor presentation on Thursday 16th June at 2.00pm.
Perhaps you have seen the billboards, heard the adverts, and read about PensionBee in the past few months since listing on the London Stock Exchange last Spring. Equity Development initiated coverage on the stock in March 2022.
This online session is an opportunity to hear directly from the CEO and founder, Romi Savova, as well as CFO Christoph Martin. They will discuss PensionBee's journey to date, the award winning product they have developed, and their roadmap to profitability with Assets Under Administration (AUA) driven by both new and existing customers. No new information will be disclosed during this presentation.
The webinar is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end.
Sign up to register here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/pensionbee-16june-investorpresentation