Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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RR The Biondvax results are a reminder of the risks when you expand the numbers into a pivotal trial.
However, any Company that was interested in a Universal Flu Vax beforehand will still be interested as they will know all about the risks of p3 but by buying Flu V relatively cheaply they will escape the much bigger risk of the pre clinical,p1 and p 2 simply to arrive at the stage Flu V is at and at the cost of 1-200m £ plus several years.
They also will become the clear leader to market with all the first mover advantage in a huge market that the first universal Fku Vax wil give.
just one thing extrade, ORPH are putting up 49% of Imutex for sale , there share , so if they get the 150mill for there share 49% surely that will be split between ORPH,s shareholders, im sure if you read back hes hoping for at least 200mil for our 49% stake.
suppose your right there extrader lol, maybe time for me to go a couple of beers .
Hi barwickman,
.."So what they going to do with the other 80 mill the roscoe.."
I guess that's SEEK's 51%...
ATB
For every hundred million of Imutex sale, shareholders will get 7p. So your analysis is correct. It is a bit of a punt for any big pharma however they have deep pockets and the rewards are huge if successful- tell me any trial where this isn’t an element of risk - I wouldn’t like to guess how much money is used speculating on medicine globally and with ours in the most advanced stage than any other and up for sale I would think they’ll be some interested parties. It’s a win win situation as we have nothing to lose. It has very little value if any on our SP.
If it were to be floated on Nasdaq, we would get 1:1 but the shares would be diluted at the start as they would need to raise funds, so initially the SP would be diluted from the 1:1 but the value in the states would dwarf any valuation here and over time it could be worth multiples but I think we all would prefer a cash sale and we are in a good spot to crystallise that.GLA
So what they going to do with the other 80 mill the roscoe
Squeaky Bum time for Imutex and Flu-V
The phase 2b trials were promising but is it enough to convince somebody to go all in for it?
Yesterday it was arguably worth somewhere between 50-500 million what's it worth today ?
I think it will be easy to sell at the bottom range now as its peanuts to big pharma.
If you get two interested who knows. So lets just say 150 million. With 70 million being returned to orph share holders. Unless I have got my decimal point in the wrong place that's a 10.5p divi.
The other thing is that it has the Mosquito Saliva vaccine which again is impossible for me to even try and value it.
Merry Christmas Mr Friel
That's good to hear Usain, mind you I do wind some up at times, blurblurblah is my favorite...lol
Morning,
As Moniman said Immutex is not priced on and is a non core asset so anything we get is a bonus.
Do not forget we have the genomics data base as a 2nd cash dividend.
Both catalysts are imo extremely good additional reasons to keep a hold of your shares as well as the fundamentals that most of us are very familiar with.
I feel it is likely that some SH will sell or slice on any news like we saw when the Govt contract was confirmed and when anyone gets a windfall and the SP could well dip for a short time again to reverse like we have scene.
Of course we don’t know where the SP will be when these catalysts are announced but likely higher and of course it depends on the deal.
So if the wearables deal and Immutex deal was a fair proportion of the market cap or again better and who would bet against CF it could send the SP even higher though my gut reaction would be as it is a cash dividend then on balance I think the SP could fall.
I think the wearables deal will come in first but the Biondvax p3 failure makes FluV a much more valuable asset.
A universal Flu Vax remains a huge prize.We are now arguably the most likely first one to be Approved,Accepting all the risks p3 brings to any Universal Flu candidate.
So if you want to get into the Vax race you have a chance to leapfrog to first place and if more than one want it a bidding war will ensue.
Yes they have to pay for p3 trials but they will have to for any candidate and no guarantees with any approach.They will save themselves several years and huge risk and expense to get to the position Flu V is in so £2-300m so may consider it is worth spending £100/200m or could be much more to get there.
Plus you have the universal Malaria Vax with Immutex as another Bruce bonus.
Thanks both posters, bit lazy from me but will research it more.
Thanks as ever and gl with your investment in OO.
For the status, I hold a small spread long here.
No it won't. Imutex currently has zero value attributed to it..it's not currently adding to OO share price
May sound stupid, but with the sell off of imutex, surely the sp off OO will take a hit from the payout of said 'dividend'. Anyone here that can point me in the direction of travel would be much appreciated.
Thankyou
Usain..its good to see new posters, I note you're a regular on AVCT, and you like a wind up which isn't a problem, but it might be worth doing some detailed research into the company and what it does...You appear to think Imutex is the whole.company but in reality, CF wasn't even aware of it when he aquired Hvivo last year. OO is about many other things in reality. If imutex and the Flu v comes off it will be a huge bonus, but we won't be taking it to stage 3 as it will cost another £50million to do so...I think CF will just monetise it if possible, unless someone else wants to pay for stage 3 trials and the share the potential profits if the drug works, potential sales could be worth billions in the words of SEEK..thats why Biondvax spent 15years and $400million on their now failed product as it said in yesterdays article...GL with the research..
We don’t have the cash
Mass sell off today why ??
CF has previously mentioned CVRs in relation to Imutex too, so if this comes to pass then Flu-V passing P3 trials would presumably be the next milestone to unlock additional value for shareholders?
The plot thickens! Can only add value IMO. This was Biondvax’s only clinical trial basically and they have lost $400M in value if I’m correct? We also have the AGS-V and Prep-biopharm to add. Interesting indeed.
ok moni cheers, CF did say his 1st choice was a cash deal, and they wernt going to put any money into Imutex, sell it as a going concern, GLA.
Mikodx...we won't be taking Flu v to stage 3...its being sold stage 3 ready to the highest bidder. Now we've got the only product in town the value may have just gone up significantly
Investment here just gets better and better
This is good news indeed. We are definite front runners for a universal flu vaccine. Still a little way to go though with Phase lll studies still to complete.
https://asm.org/Articles/2019/August/A-Universal-Influenza-Vaccine-How-Close-Are-We
Exactly, they could be buying a world beating drug for millions that could be worth billions..hi risk equals high reward as they say...but it won't be OO's risk...CF has said no more money spent on the drug research, leave that to the big pharmaceuticals...
Big news that Imutex's Flu-V is now the only Phase III ready universal flu vaccine candidate in the world, but let's not forget that Imutex also has AGS-V which showed promising results in Phase I and will be accounted for in any valuation.
Both vaccine candidates have been described as the 'holy grail'.
Q4 was already looking good, but now...!
Agree Moninan.
The risk is on whoever buys it.
It can't go pear shaped for Flu v as the Imutex sale would get done prior to any stage 3 trials starting, this the buyer get 15 years research and stage 2 complete drug, the buyer therefore get a potential world beating drug at a knock down price, we get a special dividend..everyone is a winner